Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Mobile, AL

902 
WWUS54 KMOB 031817
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1217 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

MSC111-031845-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-220203T1845Z/
Perry MS-
1217 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CST
FOR PERRY COUNTY...

At 1216 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Macedonia to 4 miles northwest of New Augusta to
near Brooklyn, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Richton, Beaumont and New Augusta. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of 
a building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8915 3144 8897 3143 8884 3108 8884
      3100 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 242DEG 42KT 3140 8913 3123 8909 3109 8919 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1047 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...Latest surface analysis suggests a marine
warm front is now positioned along the immediate coast of Alabama
westward to the north of New Orleans. The airmass along and south
of this boundary has already become unstable with MLCAPES between
500-1000j/kg. Along and south of the front, there are increasing
breaks in the clouds with continued diurnal heating with
temperatures already into the lower to middle 70s and dewpoints
into the lower 70s. This unstable airmass will continue to spread
gradually inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama over the next few hours. In addition, latest
Mobile VAD generated hodographs suggest that helicity values have
increased to around 300m2/s2 from 0-1km, with contributions from
both speed and directional shear. This will set the stage for
potential severe storms from late morning through early this
evening.

Latest model guidance suggests that favorable differential
divergence associated with a powerful 125+kt cyclonically curved
upper jet streak will overspread the unstable near surface
environment later this afternoon contributing to instability. This
will overlap a belt of 40-50kts of effective shear to support
thunderstorm organization. A line of thunderstorms has already
developed this morning as of 16z along the cold front from
southern Mississippi into southeast Louisiana. These storms will
continue to move east into the more favorable environment posing a
damaging wind and isolated tornado threat this afternoon.
Additionally, a few elevated mini-supercells developed along the
warm front earlier this morning and have since moved north of the
boundary into more stable air and weakened. Additional supercell
development along this warm front cannot be ruled out during peak
heating with a higher tornado, large hail, and damaging wind
threat.

Finally, storms may tend to train across the same areas with a
heavy rainfall threat. This will occur over areas where several
inches of rain already fell overnight. This will result in an
increased threat for flash flooding.

The overall threat will continue to be monitored through the day.
Please review your severe weather plan now and be prepared to act
to protect yourself if a warning is issued for your location later
today through this evening. The severe weather threat should
become more localized and closer to the coast after sunset as
instability weakens over interior locations. /JLH

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until noon CST Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until noon CST Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ630>632-650.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob