River Flood Warning 54, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
711 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly
progress eastward this evening. As of issuance time, most of the
heavier activity has pushed east of I-65, helping to lower
visibilities and ceilings to MVFR/IFR. Coverage will continue to
decrease throughout the evening, with VFR conditions becoming
prevalent through the early morning hours. Another round of
widespread showers and storms will develop around or a little
before daybreak, lasting through, at least, the early to middle
part of the afternoon. Prevailing ceilings may lower to MVFR, and
occasional drops to IFR for both visibilities and ceilings will be
possible in some of the heavier activity. /96

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...The threat for heavy rain
continues across the area as a broad upper level trough continues
across the southeast. Several shortwaves rotating through the flow
along with significant deep layer moisture in place will continue to
lead to very heavy rain. Precip water values are well over 2 inches
with an observed PW value of 2.3 inches at LIX this morning.
Rainfall will also be enhanced by warm rain processes with warm mid
level temps in place. Hourly rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are
possible in the stronger cores. There is a moderate risk for
excessive rainfall across northwest portions of the area with a
slight risk across the remainder of the area today and a marginal
risk on Thursday. The Flood Watch has been expanded to include much
of the area through Thursday evening due to the very moist soil
conditions and additional heavy rains expected. Highs will only be
in the upper 70s and low 80s due to the widespread clouds and
rainfall. /13

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...Upper-level
troughing over the Great Lakes begins to slowly shift eastward as a
weak upper ridge builds over the Mississippi River Valley. At the
surface, the frontal boundary stretched across the Southeast US
begins to wash out by Saturday as the low meandering over ArkLaTex
region broadens out and weakens. This allows for the high over the
Western Atlantic to nudge back to the west, building into the
Southeastern US. Deep moisture will remain in place across the
region, with PWAT values generally around 1.9 to 2.3 inches.

Friday will be a transition day between the active weather pattern
seen over the past few days, to more of a diurnal pattern as the
troughing overhead weakens and ridging starts to build in. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms will develop across the region during
the early morning hours, increasing in coverage during the
afternoon. It should be noted that the location of the surface low,
as well as how quickly/slowly it broadens and dissipates, will help
dictate convective coverage on Friday. If the low shifts westward
towards Texas and dissipates quickly, then coverage may not be as
widespread as previous days. However, if the low shifts to the east
towards Louisiana/Mississippi and is slower to dissipate,
convective coverage may be higher, ultimately leading to an
increased flood potential. In any case, localized flooding
concerns will be the primary hazard on Friday, especially for
regions that have seen copious amounts of rainfall over the past
few days.

For Saturday, convection will follow a typical diurnal cycle as
ridging finally builds into the region. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will begin redeveloping over the marine
zones during the early morning hours and push into coastal
counties during the late morning. Activity will then spread inland
during the afternoon due to sea breeze and outflow boundary
collisions. PoPs remain elevated due to the high moisture values,
however they will be slightly lower than previous days (around
60-70 percent) before decreasing in coverage during the evening
hours due to the loss of daytime heating. Once again, the primary
hazard will be slow moving storms capable of producing heavy
rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding concerns given
the high PWATs and wet antecedent conditions in place.

Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s for interior regions, and mid to upper 70s
closer to the coast. A LOW risk of rip currents continue through
Saturday. /96

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Weak ridging aloft
will linger over the Southeast and western Atlantic as we head into
early next week. Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will dig over
portions of the Central Plains. Towards the middle of the week, an
upper ridge over the western US will begin to amplify causing the
ridging over the Southeast to flatten out. A surface ridge axis
extending from the western Atlantic will keep deep layer moisture
abundant across the northern Gulf Coast with precipitable water
values around 2 inches or so through the period. Showers and storms
will be possible each day as a result. With less forcing aloft,
storms will generally follow a diurnal pattern with the seabreeze
and remnant outflow boundaries being the main forcing mechanisms.
The weak mid to upper level subsidence and increased daytime heating
could allow for a few strong to marginally severe storms through
early next week. Highs will likely top out around the upper 80s and
lower 90s through the period with lows in the 70s. /14

MARINE...High pressure will remain in control across the
northeastern Gulf and southeastern US. It will remain centered
northeast of the coastal waters and this will maintain a light
easterly to southeasterly wind. Seas will also be generally 2 feet
or less. Locally higher winds and seas are expected with
thunderstorms. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ALZ051>056-059-261>266.

FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for FLZ201>203.

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
816 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E WHATLEY             31.65N 87.68W
08/24/2022                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CLARKE COUNTY EMA RELAYED REPORTS OF WATER
            ENTERING A RESIDENCE ON NELLIE HILL ROAD
            NEAR WHATLEY.

&&

21/CLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
823 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE FULTON            31.78N 87.72W
08/24/2022                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN PART
            OF SOUTHEAST MAIN STREET IN FULTON.

&&

21/CLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
830 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     WATER SPOUT      2 E PENSACOLA BEACH     30.33N 87.11W
08/24/2022                   GMZ655             FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF A WATERSPOUT SOUTH OF
            PENSACOLA BEACH.

&&

21/CLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
839 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SE FORT WALTON BEACH  30.39N 86.59W
08/24/2022  M51 MPH          OKALOOSA           FL   MESONET

            THE OKALOOSA ISLAND FISHING PIER WEATHERFLOW
            STATION RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH.

&&

21/CLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
849 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE VREDENBURGH        31.81N 87.30W
08/24/2022                   MONROE             AL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF FLOODING NEAR THE COMMUNITY
            OF VREDENBURGH.

&&

21/CLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
859 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 W DESTIN              30.40N 86.56W
08/24/2022  M44 MPH          GMZ635             FL   MESONET

            THE FORT WALTON BEACH WEATHERFLOW STATION
            RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 44 MPH.

&&

21/CLL