River Flood Warning 17, NWS Mobile, AL

908 
WGUS84 KMOB 090106
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
706 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-100115-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220312T2136Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220312T2136Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
706 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:00 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 21.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Saturday afternoon and continue rising to 25.0 feet Sunday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

223 
WGUS84 KMOB 091405
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
805 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-101415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220312T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220312T1200Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
805 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 20.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Saturday morning and continue rising to 26.2 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

950 
WGUS84 KMOB 092252
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
452 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-102300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220312T1727Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220312T1727Z.220314T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
452 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 19.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Saturday morning. It is forecast to continue rising to a
    stage of 26.2 feet early Monday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

724 
WGUS84 KMOB 100231
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
831 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-110245-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220312T1617Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220312T1617Z.220314T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
831 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 19.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Saturday morning. It is forecast to continue rising to a
    stage of 26.2 feet early Monday afternoon. Additional rises
    are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

611 
WGUS84 KMOB 101521
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
921 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-111530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220312T0925Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220312T0925Z.220315T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
921 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From late Friday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 19.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Saturday morning and continue rising to 26.2 feet
    Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

958 
WGUS84 KMOB 110201
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
801 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-120215-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220312T0925Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220312T0925Z.220314T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
801 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From late Friday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 20.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Saturday morning and continue rising to a crest of 25.5
    feet early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

JFP

995 
WGUS84 KMOB 111522
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
922 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-121530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220312T1312Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220312T1312Z.220314T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
922 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 21.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to above flood stage
    Saturday morning. The river will then continue rising and
    crest at a stage of 25.5 feet late Sunday night into early
    Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

CGAL

098 
WGUS84 KMOB 120257
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
857 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-130300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220312T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220312T1800Z.220314T0500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
857 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CST Friday the stage was 22.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Saturday afternoon. The river will then continue rising
    to a crest of 25.4 feet early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

975 
WGUS84 KMOB 121536
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
936 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-131545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220313T0715Z-220316T1924Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220313T0715Z.220314T0500Z.220316T1324Z.NO/
936 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From late tonight to early Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 22.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    just after midnight tonight to a crest of 24.8 feet early
    Monday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

175 
WGUS84 KMOB 130405
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1005 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-140415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220313T1700Z-220316T0630Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220313T1700Z.220314T1700Z.220316T0030Z.NO/
1005 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon to early Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 24 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands 
  begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 23.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 24.5 feet early Monday
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 24 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

JFP

152 
WGUS84 KMOB 131459
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
959 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-141500-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220314T0600Z-220315T1800Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.220314T0600Z.220314T1200Z.220315T1200Z.NO/
959 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* WHEN...From late tonight to early Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 23.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    just after midnight tonight to a crest of 24.1 feet tomorrow
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

173 
WGUS84 KMOB 140139
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
839 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

ALC025-129-140245-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0017.220314T0600Z-220314T0139Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
839 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 23.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river has fallen below flood stage and will
    continue to fall to a stage of 19.9 feet by Friday morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
546 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR cigs will continue throughout the morning and
into the day today with scattered showers and thunderstorms west
mainly west of I-65 this morning. Temporary reduction in visbys to
MVFR and possibly IFR will be possible within the vicinity of any
thunderstorms. Rain will move north by this afternoon is MVFR cigs
prevailing. Winds will turn more southerly this afternoon as a
front lift northward. By this evening, another cold front will
sweep in from the west with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms ahead of it. Ceiling will reduce to IFR ahead of the
front after midnight and persist overnight. The best chance for
rain and lowered visibilities will likely occur after midnight.
BB/03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...An upper trof
centered over the 4 Corners region weakens while advancing across
the central states and eventually across the Great Lakes during
the period. This occurs within a rather large and broad positively
tilted upper trof pattern over much of the CONUS which maintains
a southwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states. Within
this flow regime over the region, a series of shortwaves move
across the forecast area mainly during the day on Tuesday into the
evening hours and again on Wednesday. A frontal boundary which
currently extends from near VPS to near the mouth of the
Mississippi River drifts southward overnight then returns slowly
northward to into the coastal counties Tuesday afternoon then into
the mid section of the forecast area Tuesday evening. The frontal
boundary then slowly retreats southward back through much of the
marine area later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sufficient
deep layer moisture remains over the area through the period such
that with the series of shortwaves and meandering frontal
boundary this will support high rain chances for much of the area
Tuesday through Wednesday. For Tuesday, have gone with good chance
to categorical pops along and north of I-65 on Tuesday (lesser
pops further east) which increase to likely to categorical pops
areawide Tuesday night. For Wednesday, have gone with categorical
pops along and east of I-65 tapering to chance pops over interior
southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama.

Adding to this busy pattern is a modest potential for strong storms
late Tuesday night (after midnight) into early Wednesday morning.
The main question will be the degree of destabilization without any
diurnal heating. This will likely be supplied by steepening mid-
level lapse rates and increase of low level moisture south of the
advancing warm front. High res guidance depicts MLCAPE values
increase to 1000-1500 J/kg by late Tuesday night into Wednesday
evening as the frontal boundary lifts into the area. This warm
sector could reach as far north as the highway 84 corridor with
MUCAPE values of 1000 to 15000 J/kg. A southerly 850 mb flow of 35-
45 knots will allow for 0-1 km helicity values near 200 m2/s2 and
effective bulk shear values look to be 45-55 knots. This environment
will be supportive of deep organized convection mainly across the
coastal counties and the I-10 corridor but could extend as far north
as highway 84. The main question will be if the storms will be
rooted at the surface or elevated. This will likely be driven on how
impressive the low level moisture return is south of the front (can
we advect enough moisture and warm air from the gulf) and how deep
is the marine boundary layer which tends to keep storms elevated
enough this time of year. Three different scenarios could be
possible tomorrow.

Scenario 1 a combination of elevated and surface based bowing line
segments and supercells. Storms along and mainly along and south of
I-10 would be surface based leading to all severe hazards being
possible including large hail and damaging winds. These storms would
also be in a favorable location with respect to a weak developing
surface low leading to localized increase in SRH and tornado
potential. If storms can become surface based along the coast a
tornado or waterspout (tornado over water) cannot be ruled out.
Cells mainly north of I-10 might be more elevated given moisture may
be little lower and surface temperatures a bit cooler. Supercells
will still be present, but the elevated nature of these storms would
likely lead to more of a larger hail threat (Quarter sized or
larger), especially given the steepening mid-level lapse rates
approaching 7 deg C/km. This is probably the most likely scenario
based off the current high res guidance with medium but increasing
confidence.

Scenario 2 is all the storms are surface based. In this scenario the
entire warm sector verifies warmer than anticipated leading to
higher surface based cape and surface based storms. This would
likely lead to most of the area with the potential of all three
severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and a tornado or
two. This would result in a rather active night/morning and this
would likely be what we would consider the reasonable worst case
scenario. Confidence in this is low; however, trends in high-res
guidance will need to be monitored closely this afternoon. If
confidence begins to increase in this scenario, we would not be
surprised to see an upgraded SPC risk level.

Scenario 3 is the degree of instability is hindered by either A.
slower advance of the warm sector or b. widespread convection
overturning the environment this afternoon and evening leading to a
lower severe threat. In this scenario everything mainly becomes a
mess of elevated heavy rainfall and the severe potential would be
squashed. This appears to be the least likely scenario and really
would not bank on this one. However, there is always a chance that
we sneak by with nothing happening.

As mentioned, guidance will have to be monitored closely throughout
the day and upgrades may be needed if trends continue to swing
towards a more favorable environment.

Lows tonight mainly range from the upper 40s to lower 50s west of I-
65 to mid to upper 50s further to the east. Highs on Tuesday range
from the upper 50s to near 70 along and west of I-65 with lower to
mid 70s further to the east. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper
40s to mid 50s along and west of I-65, with upper 50s to lower 60s
further to the east. Highs on Wednesday range from around 60 to the
mid 60s west of I-65 with upper 60s to lower 70s east of I-65. A
high risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday night then a
moderate risk follows for Wednesday. /29 BB/03

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...A
southwesterly upper level flow will continue across the area.
Embedded disturbances in this flow will bring scattered to
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms to the area Wednesday
night as the cold front continues to push offshore. Much of the
area remains dry on Thursday and the deeper moisture is shunted
south. The front will move back north as a warm front Thursday
night as an upper trough moves into the plains. This will bring
deep layer moisture back into the region with increases chances
for rain by late Thursday night. Lows on Wednesday night will
range from the mid and upper 40s northwest of I-65 to low to mid
50s southeast of I-65. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s
and low 70s. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 50s
inland to near 60s along the coast. /13

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/..A pair of shortwaves
located over the north-central southwestern U.S. respectively
transit the long-wave upper level trough rooted across the central
U.S. Friday into Friday night. These features favorably interact and
phase with each other across the central and eastern CONUS, helping
sharpen the long-wave trough and make it take on a neutral tilt by
Saturday morning as it shifts quickly east. In the wake of this,
zonal flow takes root into Sunday before another upper level
shortwave approaches the area from the northwest on Monday. At the
surface, a complex evolution of surface flow will be ongoing with
strong warm advection beginning to take hold over the area in
advance of an approaching strong cold front. A surface low will
likely develop somewhere across the south-central Gulf coast states
and strengthen rapidly as it tracks northeast , although there
remains variance between global models on how quickly and where this
develops. It seems probable that it will develop and track to the
west of the CWA, and the current forecast reflects this. Quality of
moisture return and likewise thermodynamics are questionable prior
to fropa Friday night, which will have considerable impact to what
if any severe threat would evolve Friday. Regardless, Friday into
Friday night will be wet with likely scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms, particularly into Friday night. Considering prior
days of moderate to heavy rainfall in spots and the expected
precipitation coverage Friday into Friday night, potential for
isolated instances of flash flooding may set up across portions of
the CWA.

The cold front pushes through the area into Saturday morning, and a
vastly different airmass will accompany this as surface high
pressure moves in. This will likely first be accompanied by strong,
gusty winds over the land and marine areas. Temperatures will be
much colder Saturday and Sunday, with highs Saturday struggling to
reach the 50 degree mark. Near record lows appear possible Saturday
night into Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20's
inland and lower 30's near the coast. Considering the magnitude of
the cold air, recent warmth and nearing the beginning of the growing
season it seems reasonable that a freeze watch/warning may be
required for this period for portions of the forecast area. Beyond
this, dry weather prevails Saturday and Sunday with a slight
increase in PoPs Monday with the next approaching system.
Temperatures begin to warm into the beginning of the week. MM/25.

MARINE...Moderate northerly flow will persist this morning in the
wake of a cold front that moved through overnight. The front lifts
back inland from the marine area on Tuesday and then meanders over
the region through Thursday, with somewhat varying wind directions
depending on exact frontal locations. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through much of the week.
Some storms could be strong to severe late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Some patchy fog could also be possible over
nearshore bays and waterways late Tuesday night. SCEC winds and seas
at times over the next few days, especially for Tuesday. A strong
cold front will finally sweep across the marine area Friday night
with a strong offshore flow in its wake, when SCA will probably be
required. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob