River Flood Warning 16, NWS Mobile, AL

621 
WGUS84 KMOB 090105
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
705 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-100115-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.220312T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220312T1800Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
705 PM CST Tue Mar 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:00 PM CST Tuesday the stage was 23.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Saturday afternoon and continue rising to 30.2 feet
    Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

348 
WGUS84 KMOB 091402
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
802 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-101415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.220312T0712Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220312T0712Z.220314T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
802 AM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From late Friday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 AM CST Wednesday the stage was 23.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Saturday morning and continue rising to 33.1 feet
    Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

147 
WGUS84 KMOB 092255
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
455 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-102300-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.220312T1030Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220312T1030Z.220314T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
455 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From late Friday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 22.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Saturday morning. It is forecast to continue rising to
    a stage of 32.9 feet early Monday afternoon. Additional rises
    are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

422 
WGUS84 KMOB 100233
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
833 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-110245-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.220312T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220312T0600Z.220314T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
833 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From late Friday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 22.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Friday night. It is forecast to continue rising to a
    stage of 32.8 feet Monday morning. Additional rises are
    possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

464 
WGUS84 KMOB 101519
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
919 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-111530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.220312T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220312T0430Z.220315T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
919 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Friday evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 23.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tomorrow evening and continue rising to 32.3 feet
    Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

970 
WGUS84 KMOB 110157
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
757 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-120200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.220311T0157Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
757 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...From Friday evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 24.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tomorrow evening and continue rising to a crest of 30.9
    feet early Sunday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

JFP

047 
WGUS84 KMOB 111518
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
918 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-121530-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
918 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 26.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to above flood stage
    by early Saturday morning. The river will then continue
    rising and crest at a stage of 30.3 feet Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

CGAL

520 
WGUS84 KMOB 120252
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
852 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-130300-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
852 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CST Friday the stage was 27.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tonight. The river will then continue rising to a crest
    of 30.5 feet Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

897 
WGUS84 KMOB 121534
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
934 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-131545-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220316T0300Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.220315T2100Z.NO/
934 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until late Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 28.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this morning to a crest of 30.0 feet tomorrow evening.
    It will then fall below flood stage Tuesday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

811 
WGUS84 KMOB 130401
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1001 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-140415-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220315T2000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.220315T1400Z.NO/
1001 PM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 29 feet, Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 29.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 29.6
    feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    late Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

JFP

943 
WGUS84 KMOB 131500
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1000 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-141500-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220315T1000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.220315T0400Z.NO/
1000 AM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until early Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 29.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow evening and continue falling to 23.2 feet
    Friday morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

491 
WGUS84 KMOB 140130
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
830 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-150130-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220315T0130Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.220314T1930Z.NO/
830 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CDT Sunday the stage was 29.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    Monday evening. It will then gradually fall to a stage of
    23.9 feet Friday evening.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

086 
WGUS84 KMOB 141414
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
914 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Leroy...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC023-025-129-150115-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220315T0112Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.220314T1912Z.NO/
914 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 29.0 feet, Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock 
  should be moved to higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river 
  begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CDT Monday the stage was 29.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this afternoon and continue falling to 26.6 feet Saturday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

788 
WGUS84 KMOB 150115
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
815 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

...The Flood Warning is expired for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Clarke, Washington 
  and Choctaw Counties.

ALC023-025-129-150215-
/O.EXP.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220315T0112Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.220310T2336Z.220311T0000Z.220314T1912Z.NO/
815 PM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

...FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The Flood Warning has expired for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 28.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 PM CDT Monday was 29.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river has dropped below flood stage and the
    warning is therefore cancelled.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8805 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8804
      3160 8810 3178 8822


$$

JEH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
546 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...MVFR cigs will continue throughout the morning and
into the day today with scattered showers and thunderstorms west
mainly west of I-65 this morning. Temporary reduction in visbys to
MVFR and possibly IFR will be possible within the vicinity of any
thunderstorms. Rain will move north by this afternoon is MVFR cigs
prevailing. Winds will turn more southerly this afternoon as a
front lift northward. By this evening, another cold front will
sweep in from the west with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms ahead of it. Ceiling will reduce to IFR ahead of the
front after midnight and persist overnight. The best chance for
rain and lowered visibilities will likely occur after midnight.
BB/03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CST Tue Mar 8 2022/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Wednesday/...An upper trof
centered over the 4 Corners region weakens while advancing across
the central states and eventually across the Great Lakes during
the period. This occurs within a rather large and broad positively
tilted upper trof pattern over much of the CONUS which maintains
a southwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states. Within
this flow regime over the region, a series of shortwaves move
across the forecast area mainly during the day on Tuesday into the
evening hours and again on Wednesday. A frontal boundary which
currently extends from near VPS to near the mouth of the
Mississippi River drifts southward overnight then returns slowly
northward to into the coastal counties Tuesday afternoon then into
the mid section of the forecast area Tuesday evening. The frontal
boundary then slowly retreats southward back through much of the
marine area later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sufficient
deep layer moisture remains over the area through the period such
that with the series of shortwaves and meandering frontal
boundary this will support high rain chances for much of the area
Tuesday through Wednesday. For Tuesday, have gone with good chance
to categorical pops along and north of I-65 on Tuesday (lesser
pops further east) which increase to likely to categorical pops
areawide Tuesday night. For Wednesday, have gone with categorical
pops along and east of I-65 tapering to chance pops over interior
southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama.

Adding to this busy pattern is a modest potential for strong storms
late Tuesday night (after midnight) into early Wednesday morning.
The main question will be the degree of destabilization without any
diurnal heating. This will likely be supplied by steepening mid-
level lapse rates and increase of low level moisture south of the
advancing warm front. High res guidance depicts MLCAPE values
increase to 1000-1500 J/kg by late Tuesday night into Wednesday
evening as the frontal boundary lifts into the area. This warm
sector could reach as far north as the highway 84 corridor with
MUCAPE values of 1000 to 15000 J/kg. A southerly 850 mb flow of 35-
45 knots will allow for 0-1 km helicity values near 200 m2/s2 and
effective bulk shear values look to be 45-55 knots. This environment
will be supportive of deep organized convection mainly across the
coastal counties and the I-10 corridor but could extend as far north
as highway 84. The main question will be if the storms will be
rooted at the surface or elevated. This will likely be driven on how
impressive the low level moisture return is south of the front (can
we advect enough moisture and warm air from the gulf) and how deep
is the marine boundary layer which tends to keep storms elevated
enough this time of year. Three different scenarios could be
possible tomorrow.

Scenario 1 a combination of elevated and surface based bowing line
segments and supercells. Storms along and mainly along and south of
I-10 would be surface based leading to all severe hazards being
possible including large hail and damaging winds. These storms would
also be in a favorable location with respect to a weak developing
surface low leading to localized increase in SRH and tornado
potential. If storms can become surface based along the coast a
tornado or waterspout (tornado over water) cannot be ruled out.
Cells mainly north of I-10 might be more elevated given moisture may
be little lower and surface temperatures a bit cooler. Supercells
will still be present, but the elevated nature of these storms would
likely lead to more of a larger hail threat (Quarter sized or
larger), especially given the steepening mid-level lapse rates
approaching 7 deg C/km. This is probably the most likely scenario
based off the current high res guidance with medium but increasing
confidence.

Scenario 2 is all the storms are surface based. In this scenario the
entire warm sector verifies warmer than anticipated leading to
higher surface based cape and surface based storms. This would
likely lead to most of the area with the potential of all three
severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and a tornado or
two. This would result in a rather active night/morning and this
would likely be what we would consider the reasonable worst case
scenario. Confidence in this is low; however, trends in high-res
guidance will need to be monitored closely this afternoon. If
confidence begins to increase in this scenario, we would not be
surprised to see an upgraded SPC risk level.

Scenario 3 is the degree of instability is hindered by either A.
slower advance of the warm sector or b. widespread convection
overturning the environment this afternoon and evening leading to a
lower severe threat. In this scenario everything mainly becomes a
mess of elevated heavy rainfall and the severe potential would be
squashed. This appears to be the least likely scenario and really
would not bank on this one. However, there is always a chance that
we sneak by with nothing happening.

As mentioned, guidance will have to be monitored closely throughout
the day and upgrades may be needed if trends continue to swing
towards a more favorable environment.

Lows tonight mainly range from the upper 40s to lower 50s west of I-
65 to mid to upper 50s further to the east. Highs on Tuesday range
from the upper 50s to near 70 along and west of I-65 with lower to
mid 70s further to the east. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper
40s to mid 50s along and west of I-65, with upper 50s to lower 60s
further to the east. Highs on Wednesday range from around 60 to the
mid 60s west of I-65 with upper 60s to lower 70s east of I-65. A
high risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday night then a
moderate risk follows for Wednesday. /29 BB/03

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...A
southwesterly upper level flow will continue across the area.
Embedded disturbances in this flow will bring scattered to
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms to the area Wednesday
night as the cold front continues to push offshore. Much of the
area remains dry on Thursday and the deeper moisture is shunted
south. The front will move back north as a warm front Thursday
night as an upper trough moves into the plains. This will bring
deep layer moisture back into the region with increases chances
for rain by late Thursday night. Lows on Wednesday night will
range from the mid and upper 40s northwest of I-65 to low to mid
50s southeast of I-65. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s
and low 70s. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to mid 50s
inland to near 60s along the coast. /13

EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/..A pair of shortwaves
located over the north-central southwestern U.S. respectively
transit the long-wave upper level trough rooted across the central
U.S. Friday into Friday night. These features favorably interact and
phase with each other across the central and eastern CONUS, helping
sharpen the long-wave trough and make it take on a neutral tilt by
Saturday morning as it shifts quickly east. In the wake of this,
zonal flow takes root into Sunday before another upper level
shortwave approaches the area from the northwest on Monday. At the
surface, a complex evolution of surface flow will be ongoing with
strong warm advection beginning to take hold over the area in
advance of an approaching strong cold front. A surface low will
likely develop somewhere across the south-central Gulf coast states
and strengthen rapidly as it tracks northeast , although there
remains variance between global models on how quickly and where this
develops. It seems probable that it will develop and track to the
west of the CWA, and the current forecast reflects this. Quality of
moisture return and likewise thermodynamics are questionable prior
to fropa Friday night, which will have considerable impact to what
if any severe threat would evolve Friday. Regardless, Friday into
Friday night will be wet with likely scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms, particularly into Friday night. Considering prior
days of moderate to heavy rainfall in spots and the expected
precipitation coverage Friday into Friday night, potential for
isolated instances of flash flooding may set up across portions of
the CWA.

The cold front pushes through the area into Saturday morning, and a
vastly different airmass will accompany this as surface high
pressure moves in. This will likely first be accompanied by strong,
gusty winds over the land and marine areas. Temperatures will be
much colder Saturday and Sunday, with highs Saturday struggling to
reach the 50 degree mark. Near record lows appear possible Saturday
night into Sunday morning with lows in the middle to upper 20's
inland and lower 30's near the coast. Considering the magnitude of
the cold air, recent warmth and nearing the beginning of the growing
season it seems reasonable that a freeze watch/warning may be
required for this period for portions of the forecast area. Beyond
this, dry weather prevails Saturday and Sunday with a slight
increase in PoPs Monday with the next approaching system.
Temperatures begin to warm into the beginning of the week. MM/25.

MARINE...Moderate northerly flow will persist this morning in the
wake of a cold front that moved through overnight. The front lifts
back inland from the marine area on Tuesday and then meanders over
the region through Thursday, with somewhat varying wind directions
depending on exact frontal locations. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through much of the week.
Some storms could be strong to severe late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Some patchy fog could also be possible over
nearshore bays and waterways late Tuesday night. SCEC winds and seas
at times over the next few days, especially for Tuesday. A strong
cold front will finally sweep across the marine area Friday night
with a strong offshore flow in its wake, when SCA will probably be
required. BB/03

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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