Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1114 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1114 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022)

Strong cold air advection will continue today, with gusty west
northwest winds allowing temperatures to remain nearly steady, or
slowly fall into the single digits to lower to middle teens this
afternoon. Wind chills will generally be in the single digits to
around 10 below zero, making for a raw day despite the ample
sunshine.

Main question is if a Wind Chill Advisory will be needed for the
northern portions of the forecast area later tonight into Monday
morning. Passing 500 mb sheared vorticity maximum across
southwestern portions of the area later tonight into early Monday
morning will bring some clouds and light snow/flurries along with
it, which may limit low temperatures and subsequent wind chills.

Northern portions of the area may be on the edge of these clouds,
and may have enough clearing and wind to allow for wind chills to
reach the 20 below zero threshold for an advisory.

NBM apparent temperatures to bring 20 below zero wind chills into
the north later tonight into Monday morning. Low temperatures
currently are around the 50th percentile per NBM and Model
Certainty, though the spread is rather small between the 25th and
75th percentiles.

Thus, only small adjustments to lows in the north tonight may be
realistic, which still could be enough for an advisory. Will
continue to look at temperature trends and the cloud influence on
them for tonight in the northern parts of the area.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 347 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022)

Today through Monday:

The cold front is moving through early this morning and and arctic
air mass will move in behind it with temperatures falling through
this morning and barely rebounding during the day with afternoon
temperatures in the upper single digits to teens. Strong
northwesterly winds are also expected behind the front resulting
in wind chills dropping into the negative single digits to
negative teens by mid morning. Fortunately the sun will be out
today so there is one positive variable of the forecast for those
who don't like the cold.

Tonight we could see clouds build in mainly over southern WI as a
weak trough quickly swings through with the surface low tracking
just southwest of the state. This could bring a period of flurries
or light snow with it. Lift is weak with only some positive
vorticity advection with the trough moving overhead. There is also
some dry air to overcome, but if we're able to saturate a light
dusting of snow will be possible for areas towards the WI/IL
border as we'll be in the heart of the dendritic growth zone.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the negative single digits to
a few degrees above zero with wind chills in the teens. We'll have
to watch wind chill values towards central WI as an Advisory
could be needed if they trend colder.

Monday will be another Sunny but cold day with highs mainly in the
single digits and wind chills below zero. Winds will gradually
weaken through the day as high pressure builds in. Stay warm and
safe!

RAH

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 419 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022)

Monday night through Saturday:

Arctic high pressure around 1040 mb will slide across far srn WI and
nrn IL Mon nt. There will be some high, thin clouds due to warm
advection aloft, but overall good radiational cooling conditions are
expected. Below zero temps are expected with the possible exception
of right at the lakeshore.

The high will move to the Mid Atlantic States by late Tue while low
pressure moves across srn Canada. Breezy sly winds and strong warm
advection is expected. Temps will warm through the day and into
evening. High temps in the lower to middle 20s during the daylight
hours but 25-30 degrees after dark.

A wind shift to the nw is expected on Wed with the passage of a
decaying cold front, but high temps in the 30s is still likely.
There is much uncertainty among the ensembles of the GFS and ECMWF
for late in the week. Overall snow chances will increase for Fri-
Sat, but nothing substantial expected at this time.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1114 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022)

Gusty west northwest winds will linger this afternoon into this
evening, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots into early this afternoon.
Winds weaken somewhat by later tonight. Northwest winds become
gusty again on Monday.

Mainly VFR ceilings should move through most of the area, except
the far north, later this evening and into early Monday morning.
Some light snow or flurries may occur, but no accumulations are
expected. Skies should clear out again by middle morning Monday
and continue through the day.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 1114 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022)

Gale Warning continues until noon CST across the southern 2/3 of
Lake Michigan, as well as the nearshore waters. Looking at latest
forecast soundings and more realistic GEFS ensemble 6 hour
maximum gusts, think that it can be allowed to expire at noon CST.

West to northwest gusts to 30 knots are then expected this
afternoon into tonight, perhaps into Monday. A Small Craft
Advisory will be needed for the nearshore waters this afternoon
and tonight, perhaps into Monday.

The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for the northern 2/3 of Lake
Michigan continues until early Monday evening. This looks on
track, with the combination of gusty winds and very cold
temperatures over the lake. No changes are planned at this time
for this headline.

A round of south to southwest gales are possible Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night for Lake Michigan, including the nearshore
waters. Will consider a Gale Watch for that period, as signal has
been there for a few days now.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-
     LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ868-LMZ870 until 6 PM Monday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-
     LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until noon Sunday.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT..CORRECTED KSBM TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1156 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 NNW SHEBOYGAN FALLS   43.77N 87.85W
01/09/2022  M0.01 INCH       SHEBOYGAN          WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            TOTAL ICE ACCRETION ON KSBM ASOS ICE SENSOR.

1200 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 W NORTH BAY           42.76N 87.81W
01/09/2022  M0.02 INCH       RACINE             WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            TOTAL ICE ACCRETION ON KRAC ASOS ICE SENSOR.

1200 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 W CUDAHY              42.95N 87.90W
01/09/2022  M0.03 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            TOTAL ICE ACCRETION ON ICE SENSOR ON KMKE
            ASOS EQUIPMENT.

1200 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 N PLEASANT PRAIRIE    42.60N 87.93W
01/09/2022  M0.05 INCH       KENOSHA            WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            TOTAL ICE ACCRETION ON KENW ASOS ICE SENSOR.

1200 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 NNE MAPLE BLUFF       43.14N 89.35W
01/09/2022  M0.03 INCH       DANE               WI   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            TOTAL ICE ACCRETION ON KMSN ASOS ICE SENSOR.

&&

MBK