Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Milwaukee, WI

352 
WWUS53 KMKX 240301
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1001 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC021-027-039-047-240330-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-220724T0330Z/
Green Lake WI-Fond du Lac WI-Columbia WI-Dodge WI-
1001 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN GREEN LAKE...SOUTHWESTERN FOND DU LAC...NORTHEASTERN
COLUMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 1000 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Randolph, or 7
miles northwest of Beaver Dam, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver Dam, Waupun, Randolph, Markesan, Oakfield, Brandon, Cambria,
Burnett, Fox Lake, Alto, Manchester, Fairwater, Friesland, Kingston,
Atwater, Astico, Oak Center, Lagoda, South Beaver Dam and Dalton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 8847 4337 8886 4361 8925 4367 8925
      4384 8876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 301DEG 25KT 4356 8893 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ANDERSON

883 
WWUS53 KMKX 240320
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1020 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC021-047-240330-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-220724T0330Z/
Green Lake WI-Columbia WI-
1020 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GREEN LAKE AND
NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4364 8847 4337 8886 4346 8901 4363 8901
      4363 8889 4379 8889 4384 8876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 293DEG 29KT 4350 8872 

$$

WIC027-039-240330-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-220724T0330Z/
Fond du Lac WI-Dodge WI-
1020 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FOND DU LAC AND NORTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 1020 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Horicon,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Beaver Dam, Waupun, Oakfield, Brandon, Burnett, Fox Lake, Alto,
Fairwater, Atwater, Astico, Oak Center, Lagoda, South Beaver Dam and
Leipsig.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 8847 4337 8886 4346 8901 4363 8901
      4363 8889 4379 8889 4384 8876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 293DEG 29KT 4350 8872 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ANDERSON

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022)

Tonight and Sunday:

All of the focus is on how the severe event unfolds this afternoon
and evening. Things are still looking on track and we're expecting
to get put into a watch in the next hour or so. Here are the
latest thoughts.

Latest mesoanalysis shows a multicell cluster of storms in
southeast MN/north central IA which have formed along the nose of
a 6000 J/kg SBCAPE axis that arcs from that area down into
northwest IL. These storms have at times had some rotation with
them, but things haven't organized quite yet into well developed
system. The expectation is that these storms are the focus for
what will develop into a line and then roll through southern
Wisconsin late this afternoon on into tonight.

The 23.18z RAP (and previous runs) have had a good handle on the
current situation and have been fairly consistent with the picture
it paints for this afternoon/evening. The expectation is that
stronger low level flow will kick in over the next couple of
hours, which will help advect the surface/low level warm front
northward from its current position on up into southern Wisconsin.
By 24.00z tonight, the warm front is expected to align from near
La Crosse east toward the Dells and then dropping southeast toward
northeast IL. Deep layer 0-6km shear is already decent and in
place due to some 35-45kt winds in place at 500mb. Low level wind
shear is expected to increase through the evening hours as the low
level jet strengthens out of the southwest. 0-1km wind shear is in
a bit of lull over southern WI at the moment, but 0-3km is okay at
25-30kts out of the west-northwest. Again, that is forecast to
increase as the storms arrive into southern Wisconsin this evening
which will lead to a better environment for mesovort production if
the QLCS is at it's peak intensity.

What could lead to this possibly not happening? Well, there's some
high level anvil blowoff from the current convection in MN/IA that
has lead to temperatures being a bit 'cooler' in that area.
However, with the LLJ cranking up and feeding into the storms, it
doesn't look like that will affect things much. Other than that,
there's not much to say this won't happen. If anything, it's just
a matter of where it goes. The past few runs of the HRRR have come
in line with our thinking here that the complex will start off
going east but then will follow the better instability to its
southwest and dig southeast through southeast WI toward the
evening. Some of the other CAMS/NAM-nest have hinted at more of a
direct east propagation as a result of it pushing the warm
front way further north.

Once the complex gets a bit organized, it is expected to
accelerate across southern WI. The main thing we'll be watching
for with mesovort development is if the line can keep up with its
outflow. Also, the HRRR has been showing a 'tag line' of weaker
convection leading into the line which could highlight the warm
front and where there would be a higher potential for mesovort
development.

Otherwise, beyond the main show there does look to be a period of
more unorganzied convection occurring across southern WI due to
the low level jet remaining strong and out of the southwest
overnight. This could lead to some heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding with PWs up around 2". This show should come to an
end tomorrow morning as the cold front pushes in.

Sunday through Sunday night:

Cold front will be shifting off to the southeast. Some lingering
showers or storms may still be in the area at the outset before
trending out of SE WI but the bulk should have shifted out of the
area. Otherwise cool and dry advection will get underway ahead of
high pressure working in from the west.

Halbach

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022)

Monday through Tuesday:

Quiet weather pattern will continue this period with low level
thermal trough dominating for Monday. We will start to see a warm
air advection regime take hold later Monday night with low level
warm axis becoming established for Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:

The next weather maker arrives Tuesday night as a mid level wave
combined with a surface boundary generate the potential for more
showers/thunderstorms. The best chance will be in the west late
with the chances expanding across the remainder of the area on
Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday:

A generally quiet period is expected once again with high pressure
gradually working into the area.

Halbach

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022)

Main concern is with thunderstorm potential late this afternoon
into this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms are expected to be
severe as they roll through with winds possibly going over 70mph.
As these storms come through, visibility will drop to IFR which
could linger into the overnight hours. Conditions should improve
into tomorrow morning as the system and cold front clear by.

Halbach

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022)

Main concern is with the potential for a squall line with intense
winds rolling across the lake this evening. The southern to
central half of the lake is the most likely area to see these
potentially high winds. Otherwise, winds are expected to swing
around to the northwest behind the cold front that passes tonight.

Halbach

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory...WIZ062-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 8 PM Saturday.

LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
301 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-242015-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
301 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect for Iowa, Lafayette and Green
Counties until 8 PM this evening. Heat index values around 100
are expected in this area, with middle to upper 90s elsewhere.

A line of severe storms is expected to move east southeast through
southern Wisconsin later this afternoon and tonight, with
damaging winds of 70 to 80 MPH possible. In addition, brief,
weak tornadoes, large hail and locally heavy rainfall are
possible. The main threat is expected to be between 4pm and 10pm
tonight. More storms are expected to develop overnight in southern
Wisconsin after the main line goes through which could have heavy
rain and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed later this afternoon and
tonight.

LMZ643>646-242015-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
301 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of severe storms is expected to move east southeast
through the nearshore waters tonight, with damaging winds of 50
knots or greater possible. In addition, embedded waterspouts and
large hail are possible. Stay weather aware during this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-242015-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
301 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A line of severe storms is expected to move east southeast
through the open waters tonight, with damaging winds of 50 knots
or greater possible. In addition, embedded waterspouts and large
hail are possible. Stay weather aware during this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
810 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW SHEBOYGAN         43.74N 87.72W
07/23/2022  M0.91 INCH       SHEBOYGAN          WI   COCORAHS

            0.91 INCHES STORM TOTAL, FELL IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
813 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             2 E EDGERTON            42.83N 89.02W
07/23/2022  M1.25 INCH       ROCK               WI   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
823 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW NORTH BAY         42.76N 87.82W
07/23/2022  M48 MPH          RACINE             WI   ASOS

            BATTEN AIRPORT IN RACINE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
830 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             4 E EDGERTON            42.83N 88.99W
07/23/2022  M1.00 INCH       ROCK               WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
859 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HAIL             1 ESE ELKHORN           42.67N 88.53W
07/23/2022  M0.75 INCH       WALWORTH           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
927 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIZ051-052-240300-
Sheboygan WI-Fond Du Lac WI-
927 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Fond du
Lac and northwestern Sheboygan Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 926 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
North Fond Du Lac, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fond Du Lac, North Fond Du Lac, Oakfield, Rosendale, Southern Lake
Winnebago, Taycheedah, Lamartine, Greenbush, Eldorado, Eden, Mount
Calvary, St. Cloud, Glenbeulah, Van Dyne, Peebles, Pipe, Lagoda,
Calvary, Marytown and Town of Forest.

People attending The Fond du Lac County Fair  should seek safe
shelter immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4389 8816 4389 8805 4366 8805 4370 8868
      4390 8868 4389 8841 4394 8840 4394 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 271DEG 39KT 4380 8847

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ANDERSON