Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Milwaukee, WI

472 
WWUS53 KMKX 060428
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1028 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIC027-055-131-133-060500-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220306T0500Z/
Waukesha WI-Washington WI-Jefferson WI-Dodge WI-
1028 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN WAUKESHA...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTIES...

At 1026 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Johnson Creek,
or 7 miles northeast of Jefferson, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Waukesha, Pewaukee, Hartland, Delafield, Wales, Okauchee Lake,
Oconomowoc, Ottawa, Merton, Dousman, Lac La Belle, Ixonia, Rome,
Ashippun, Nashotah, Waterville, Sullivan, Oconomowoc Lake, Chenequa
and Mapleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4295 8864 4318 8865 4327 8831 4297 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 270DEG 35KT 4305 8868 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CMILLER

139 
WWUS53 KMKX 060439
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1039 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIC027-055-060448-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220306T0500Z/
Jefferson WI-Dodge WI-
1039 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN DODGE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4296 8842 4321 8841 4327 8831 4297 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 270DEG 35KT 4307 8851 

$$

WIC131-133-060500-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220306T0500Z/
Waukesha WI-Washington WI-
1039 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL WAUKESHA AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 1038 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oconomowoc, or
near Okauchee Lake, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Waukesha, Pewaukee, Hartland, Delafield, Wales, Merton, Nashotah,
Chenequa, Stone Bank, Genesee Depot, North Lake, Holy Hill, Monches
and Lapham Peak St Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4296 8842 4321 8841 4327 8831 4297 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 270DEG 35KT 4307 8851 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CMILLER

976 
WWUS53 KMKX 060445
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1045 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIC131-133-060454-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220306T0500Z/
Waukesha WI-Washington WI-
1045 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WAUKESHA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Eastern Waukesha County, into Milwaukee County.

LAT...LON 4296 8842 4321 8841 4327 8831 4297 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 255DEG 35KT 4308 8843 

$$

CMILLER

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1016 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1016 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

The anticipated line of storms is rolling through the forecast
area and will exit the east by midnight or shortly thereafter.
There will still be a severe wind threat to keep an eye on over
the next couple hours. The cold front will zip through west to
east overnight, with a good punch of westerly winds behind the
front. The Wind Advisory timing still looks good.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 332 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

Tonight and Sunday:

A n-s line of showers and tstorms are continuing to develop over
IA and nrn MO this afternoon and move newd toward WI and IL. This
is occurring on a broad nose of a 45 kt LLJ that will move into
the area this evening and increase to 60 kts. Aloft, the left
exit region of upper jet and PVA will provide upper support during
the evening. Much of the heavier shower and tstorm development
will occur just out ahead of the dry slot from IA/MO this
afternoon into srn WI this evening. A reduction in pcpn will then
occur from west to east during the late evening as the core of the
dry slot moves into the area.

Overall, the SVR threat remains low as there is uncertainty
whether sfc based convection will occur. Nevertheless, as the
frontal inversion erodes this evening with the warm front surging
nwd, there will be the potential for SVR wind gusts with any
cellular convection or line segments. With 50 kt winds at 2 kft,
momentum transfer may be the main process for SVR storms, although
mesovortex development with QLCS development would be possible as
well. The window for QLCS and possibly a tornado or two would be
very brief as any plume of sfc based cape will be narrow. The cold
frontal passage will then occur after midnight. Strong cold
advection and a tightening pressure gradient will likely lead to
wind gusts of 45-50 mph until 15Z Sun.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 332 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

Sunday night through Saturday:

The upper-level longwave trough will continue to gradually work its
way across the western CONUS, while a mid-level shortwave trough
ejects out ahead of it across the Plains and into the Midwest
overnight Sunday into Monday. The latest 12z models are indicating
that the southern shortwave trough will phase with another shortwave
trough working down from the Northern Plains. Still expecting an
associated surface low to develop along a cold front boundary
stalling to our south. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all align pretty well
with the low tracking northeast up along the Ohio River Valley. This
path will put southern WI on the cold side of this system which
combined with the upper-level dynamics and the northern fringes of
the higher Gulf moisture with PWATs approaching 0.5 inches, will
be enough for increased wintry precip chances beginning early
Monday morning and tapering off into the afternoon. There
continues to be some uncertainty with how far north the precip
may extend with the latest deterministic models shifting a bit
more north along with the ECMWF/EPS progging it to cover the whole
CWA, while the GFS/GEFS favors more of the southern half of the
CWA, especially southeast WI. Nevertheless, there is increased
precip chances across southern WI for Monday, but there is higher
confidences for areas along and south of I-94.

Model soundings indicate the more favorable lift occuring in a
saturate DGZ with snow ratios ranging from around 8:1 to 12:1, thus
the main precip type will likely be a wetter snow with an
occasional mix at the onset and ending. And given QPF have
increased a bit with the northern trend with amounts ranging
around a tenth to a quarter of an inch along with it occuring
during daylight and a higher sun angle, most of southern WI will
likely see around 1 to 2 inches of snow. However, higher amount
approaching 3 inches are not out of the question especially in the
southeastern part of the CWA. This activity will likely impact
the morning commute and caution is needed if traveling during this
timeframe, but should begin to taper off through the afternoon.

Otherwise, after the Monday's snowfall, the middle of next week
looks relatively quiet and dry for southern WI with a series of
surface highs and clippers passing to our north working their way
across the Upper Midwest. Temps are expected to be around normal
Tuesday through Thursday. Continue to keep an eye on the late week
storm system progged to trek across the Midwest late Thursday into
Friday bringing increased precip chance to southern WI, but still
too far out to make any exact determinations with any confidence.
However, it is looking more likely for a big cool down to occur
behind this system as we head into next weekend.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1016 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

The anticipated line of storms is rolling through the forecast
area and will exit the east by midnight or shortly thereafter.
There is still a severe wind threat to keep an eye on over the
next couple hours. The cold front will zip through west to east
overnight, with a good punch of westerly winds gusting 35 to 45
knots behind the front. There will remain a concern for low level
wind shear until the surface winds pick up overnight.

Seeing a mix of ceilings and visibilites out there this evening,
with a brief return to mainly VFR likely behind the storms, then a
return to lower ceilings behind the front tonight into Sunday.
Will eventually see improvement in ceilings tomorrow south to
north during the afternoon hours.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 332 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

Low pressure of 29.5 inches over southwest Iowa late this afternoon
will deepen to around 29.3 inches as it reaches northern Lake
Michigan by Sunday morning. Southerly gales are expected to
develop through the evening then become westerly with the cold
frontal passage Sunday morning. A brief period of storm force
gusts to 50 knots will be possible with the frontal passage.

West to northwest winds will become lighter Sunday as the pressure
gradient weakens. Winds become northerly Sunday night and Monday
as low pressure around 29.6 inches moves from Missouri through the
Ohio Valley. As the low continues to track east, winds become
northwesterly into Monday night.

The Gale Warning remains in effect from 6 PM today until noon on
Sunday for the open lake of Lake MI. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect until midnight from Sheboygan to Winthrop
Harbor, followed by a Gale Warning from midnight until noon
Sunday.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 9 AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until noon Sunday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until noon Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until
     midnight Sunday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
250 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-062100-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
250 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across southern
WI this evening with strong winds being the main concern.

Strong southwest to west winds to 50 mph expected tonight and a
Wind Advisory is in effect from midnight into Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Strong westerly winds to 45 mph remain possible until mid morning
Sunday.

Light accumulating snow is possible Monday morning across southern
WI, which could impact the Monday morning commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tonight.

LMZ643>646-062100-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
250 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Small Craft conditions continue through this evening before
increasing to gales late tonight with gusts to 40 knots. A Gale
Warning has been issued.

Potential for thunderstorms tonight with a few being strong.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Southwest to west gales continue through Sunday morning. A brief
period of storm force gusts will be possible early Sunday morning.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-062100-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
250 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Southwest gales expected this evening with gusts around 40 knots
and a Gale Warning has been issued.

Potential for thunderstorms tonight with a few being strong
across the southern half of the lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Southwest to west gales continue through Sunday morning. A brief
period of storm force gusts will be possible through early Sunday
morning.

www.weather.gov/mkx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
737 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLOOD            LODI                    43.31N 89.54W
03/05/2022                   COLUMBIA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BASEMENT WALL OF HOME CAVED IN DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
739 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLOOD            FRIESLAND               43.59N 89.07W
03/05/2022                   COLUMBIA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BASEMENT FLOODING.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
742 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLOOD            1 SSW FOND DU LAC       43.78N 88.45W
03/05/2022                   FOND DU LAC        WI   PUBLIC

            SCATTERED REPORTS OF WATER OVER THE ROADS IN
            URBAN AND RURAL AREAS OF FOND DU LAC COUNTY.

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
823 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIZ056-057-062-063-067-068-060315-
Green WI-Lafayette WI-Columbia WI-Iowa WI-Sauk WI-Dane WI-
823 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lafayette, western
Green, Iowa, western Columbia, western Dane and Sauk Counties through
915 PM CST...

At 822 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cashton to 10 miles north of Richland
Center to 10 miles north of Platteville to 6 miles southeast of
Peosta. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Monroe, Reedsburg, Mount Horeb, Dodgeville, Prairie Du Sac,
Sauk City, Wisconsin Dells, Mineral Point, Darlington, Lake
Wisconsin, Cross Plains, Lake Delton, New Glarus, Mazomanie, Spring
Green, West Baraboo, Black Earth, Shullsburg and Belmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 9043 4321 9029 4317 9019 4355 9019
      4356 9031 4364 9031 4364 8961 4250 8965
      4251 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 233DEG 46KT 4377 9071 4349 9037 4289 9047 4240
9074

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

WAGNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
908 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIZ056-057-062-063-067>069-060415-
Green WI-Lafayette WI-Columbia WI-Rock WI-Iowa WI-Sauk WI-Dane WI-
908 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Lafayette,
Green, eastern Iowa, Rock, southeastern Columbia, Dane and
southeastern Sauk Counties through 1015 PM CST...

At 907 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mazomanie to 7 miles west of Mount Horeb
to near Warren. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Janesville, Beloit, Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Middleton,
Stoughton, Waunakee, Monroe, Verona, Oregon, McFarland, Monona, Mount
Horeb, Windsor, Edgerton, Evansville, Columbus, Prairie Du Sac and
Marshall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for
south central and southeastern Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 9019 4303 9002 4325 8998 4343 8901
      4250 8900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 261DEG 42KT 4322 8983 4303 8987 4254 9002

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CMILLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
958 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIZ047-051-057>059-063>065-069-070-060445-
Dodge WI-Walworth WI-Columbia WI-Rock WI-Green Lake WI-Waukesha WI-
Washington WI-Fond Du Lac WI-Jefferson WI-Dane WI-
958 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Green
Lake, southern Fond du Lac, Walworth, Rock, eastern Columbia, western
Waukesha, eastern Dane, western Washington, Jefferson and Dodge
Counties through 1045 PM CST...

At 957 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Randolph to Columbus to Deerfield to near
Orfordville. Movement was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail at times.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Madison, Janesville, Beloit, Sun Prairie, Watertown, Beaver
Dam, Whitewater, Hartford, Pewaukee, Stoughton, Fort Atkinson,
Waupun, Elkhorn, Hartland, Delavan, Jefferson, McFarland, Lake
Geneva, Mukwonago and Delafield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for
south central and southeastern Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8933 4362 8924 4376 8828 4249 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 256DEG 51KT 4360 8905 4332 8903 4307 8906 4258
8919

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CMILLER