Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Milwaukee, WI

500 
WWUS53 KMKX 060053
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
653 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIC045-105-060130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220306T0130Z/
Green WI-Rock WI-
653 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREEN AND WESTERN ROCK COUNTIES...

At 653 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Brodhead,
moving northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Milton, Edgerton, Evansville, Brodhead, Orfordville,
Footville, Fulton, Magnolia, Hanover, Cooksville, Avon, Indianford
and Leyden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 8955 4285 8930 4284 8884 4282 8887
      4250 8929 4250 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 219DEG 66KT 4259 8935 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CMILLER

179 
WWUS53 KMKX 060103
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
703 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIC045-060112-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220306T0130Z/
Green WI-
703 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREEN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4270 8932 4285 8927 4284 8884 4282 8887
      4260 8921 4265 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 221DEG 73KT 4274 8917 

$$

WIC105-060130-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220306T0130Z/
Rock WI-
703 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN ROCK COUNTY...

At 702 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Footville, or
near Evansville, moving northeast at 85 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Edgerton, Evansville, Orfordville, Footville, Fulton,
Magnolia, Hanover, Indianford, Leyden and Cooksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4270 8932 4285 8927 4284 8884 4282 8887
      4260 8921 4265 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 221DEG 73KT 4274 8917 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CMILLER

008 
WWUS53 KMKX 060108
SVSMKX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
708 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIC105-060118-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220306T0130Z/
Rock WI-
708 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ROCK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4270 8932 4285 8927 4284 8884 4282 8887
      4260 8921 4265 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 221DEG 73KT 4283 8906 

$$

CMILLER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
334 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 332 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

Tonight and Sunday:

A n-s line of showers and tstorms are continuing to develop over
IA and nrn MO this afternoon and move newd toward WI and IL. This
is occurring on a broad nose of a 45 kt LLJ that will move into
the area this evening and increase to 60 kts. Aloft, the left
exit region of upper jet and PVA will provide upper support during
the evening. Much of the heavier shower and tstorm development
will occur just out ahead of the dry slot from IA/MO this
afternoon into srn WI this evening. A reduction in pcpn will then
occur from west to east during the late evening as the core of the
dry slot moves into the area.

Overall, the SVR threat remains low as there is uncertainty
whether sfc based convection will occur. Nevertheless, as the
frontal inversion erodes this evening with the warm front surging
nwd, there will be the potential for SVR wind gusts with any
cellular convection or line segments. With 50 kt winds at 2 kft,
momentum transfer may be the main process for SVR storms, although
mesovortex development with QLCS development would be possible as
well. The window for QLCS and possibly a tornado or two would be
very brief as any plume of sfc based cape will be narrow. The cold
frontal passage will then occur after midnight. Strong cold
advection and a tightening pressure gradient will likely lead to
wind gusts of 45-50 mph until 15Z Sun.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 332 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

Sunday night through Saturday:

The upper-level longwave trough will continue to gradually work its
way across the western CONUS, while a mid-level shortwave trough
ejects out ahead of it across the Plains and into the Midwest
overnight Sunday into Monday. The latest 12z models are indicating
that the southern shortwave trough will phase with another shortwave
trough working down from the Northern Plains. Still expecting an
associated surface low to develop along a cold front boundary
stalling to our south. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all align pretty well
with the low tracking northeast up along the Ohio River Valley. This
path will put southern WI on the cold side of this system which
combined with the upper-level dynamics and the northern fringes of
the higher Gulf moisture with PWATs approaching 0.5 inches, will
be enough for increased wintry precip chances beginning early
Monday morning and tapering off into the afternoon. There
continues to be some uncertainty with how far north the precip
may extend with the latest deterministic models shifting a bit
more north along with the ECMWF/EPS progging it to cover the whole
CWA, while the GFS/GEFS favors more of the southern half of the
CWA, especially southeast WI. Nevertheless, there is increased
precip chances across southern WI for Monday, but there is higher
confidences for areas along and south of I-94.

Model soundings indicate the more favorable lift occuring in a
saturate DGZ with snow ratios ranging from around 8:1 to 12:1, thus
the main precip type will likely be a wetter snow with an
occasional mix at the onset and ending. And given QPF have
increased a bit with the northern trend with amounts ranging
around a tenth to a quarter of an inch along with it occuring
during daylight and a higher sun angle, most of southern WI will
likely see around 1 to 2 inches of snow. However, higher amount
approaching 3 inches are not out of the question especially in the
southeastern part of the CWA. This activity will likely impact
the morning commute and caution is needed if traveling during this
timeframe, but should begin to taper off through the afternoon.

Otherwise, after the Monday's snowfall, the middle of next week
looks relatively quiet and dry for southern WI with a series of
surface highs and clippers passing to our north working their way
across the Upper Midwest. Temps are expected to be around normal
Tuesday through Thursday. Continue to keep an eye on the late week
storm system progged to trek across the Midwest late Thursday into
Friday bringing increased precip chance to southern WI, but still
too far out to make any exact determinations with any confidence.
However, it is looking more likely for a big cool down to occur
behind this system as we head into next weekend.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 332 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

Areas of MVFR Cigs this afternoon and evening mainly north and
west of the Milwaukee metro area. Local Cigs below 1 kft will be
possible toward central WI. Rounds of showers and tstorms are
expected to continue through the evening with vsbys being briefly
limited to 1-2SM with the heavier showers or storms. LLWS will
develop this evening via a swly LLJ of 50kts.

The strong cold front will pass during the early morning hours of
Sunday with strong wswly winds expected through Sunday morning.
Widespread MVFR Cigs will overspread srn WI at this time. Some of
the MVFR Cigs may become scattered during Sunday afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 332 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022)

Low pressure of 29.5 inches over southwest Iowa late this afternoon
will deepen to around 29.3 inches as it reaches northern Lake
Michigan by Sunday morning. Southerly gales are expected to
develop through the evening then become westerly with the cold
frontal passage Sunday morning. A brief period of storm force
gusts to 50 knots will be possible with the frontal passage.

West to northwest winds will become lighter Sunday as the pressure
gradient weakens. Winds become northerly Sunday night and Monday
as low pressure around 29.6 inches moves from Missouri through the
Ohio Valley. As the low continues to track east, winds become
northwesterly into Monday night.

The Gale Warning remains in effect from 6 PM today until noon on
Sunday for the open lake of Lake MI. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect until midnight from Sheboygan to Winthrop
Harbor, followed by a Gale Warning from midnight until noon
Sunday.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...midnight Sunday to 9
     AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM Saturday to noon
     Sunday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...midnight Sunday to
     noon Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until
     midnight Sunday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
250 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-062100-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
250 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across southern
WI this evening with strong winds being the main concern.

Strong southwest to west winds to 50 mph expected tonight and a
Wind Advisory is in effect from midnight into Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Strong westerly winds to 45 mph remain possible until mid morning
Sunday.

Light accumulating snow is possible Monday morning across southern
WI, which could impact the Monday morning commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tonight.

LMZ643>646-062100-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
250 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Small Craft conditions continue through this evening before
increasing to gales late tonight with gusts to 40 knots. A Gale
Warning has been issued.

Potential for thunderstorms tonight with a few being strong.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Southwest to west gales continue through Sunday morning. A brief
period of storm force gusts will be possible early Sunday morning.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-062100-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
250 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Southwest gales expected this evening with gusts around 40 knots
and a Gale Warning has been issued.

Potential for thunderstorms tonight with a few being strong
across the southern half of the lake.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Southwest to west gales continue through Sunday morning. A brief
period of storm force gusts will be possible through early Sunday
morning.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
503 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

WIZ046-056-057-063-052330-
Columbia WI-Marquette WI-Sauk WI-Dane WI-
503 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Columbia,
northwestern Dane, southeastern Marquette and southeastern Sauk
Counties through 530 PM CST...

At 502 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Prairie Du Sac, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Portage, Prairie Du Sac, Sauk City, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Poynette,
Pardeeville, Rio, Cambria, Arlington, Wyocena, Bluffview, Merrimac,
Doylestown, Harmony Grove, Interstate 90/94 Interchange, Okee and
Devils Lake St Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4375 8928 4371 8924 4364 8925 4364 8919
      4345 8903 4319 8980 4338 8981
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 231DEG 49KT 4334 8969

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CMILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
506 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             PRAIRIE DU SAC          43.29N 89.73W
03/05/2022  E1.00 INCH       SAUK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MG