Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
709 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 506 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Hurricane Ian continues to slowly move northward through the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico towards the west coast of Florida. Outer
rain bands will continue to move across the region for the rest of
tonight and then again on Wednesday as well. With periods of heavy
rainfall continuing to move across the region during this time
frame, the potential for significant flooding will remain in place
across all of South Florida. So far, a widespread 3 to 5 inches of
rain has fallen over the eastern half of South Florida with a few
areas seeing upwards of 7 inches over the past 24 hours. In general,
an additional 6 to 8 inches of rainfall will be possible across the
region with isolated amounts of 12 inches. Therefore, the Flood
Watch will remain in effect for all of South Florida during this
time frame. The storm surge aspect of the storm will begin tonight
and likely reach its peak on Wednesday. With Hurricane Ian slowing
down as it approaches the coast, storm surge impacts could be
significant especially across the Collier County coastline.

As Hurricane Ian gets closer to the west coast of Florida, winds
will increase area wide later tonight and throughout the day on
Wednesday. The highest winds will be found mainly over the western
half of South Florida where sustained tropical storm force winds
will be possible. Farther to the east, winds will not be as strong,
however, frequent gusts to tropical storm force strength will be
possible late tonight into Wednesday.

As all of South Florida remains on the northeastern side of the
storm, the environment will continue to support the potential for a
few tornadoes through tonight and most of the day on Wednesday. A
Tornado Watch currently remains in effect for all of South Florida
through the early morning hours on Wednesday. The threat for
tornadoes should gradually diminish later on Wednesday afternoon as
the storm begins to move farther to the north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 506 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Hurricane Ian will still be close enough on Wednesday night into
Thursday to continue to have impacts across South Florida during
this time frame. With forecast trends pushing slightly eastward, the
possibility of tropical storm force wind gusts will last throughout
the day on Thursday. The chances of showers and thunderstorms will
gradually decrease later on Thursday as Hurricane Ian continues to
move away from the region. Winds begin to slowly decrease Thursday
night and Friday but will stay gusty. By the weekend and into early
next week,

For the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, Ian will
continue to weaken as it moves farther away from the region. This
will allow for the chances of showers and thunderstorms to gradually
decrease as a drier air mass filters into South Florida. Winds will
gradually decrease as well, however, they will remain out of the
south southwest during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Outer bands of Hurricane Ian continue to push through South
Florida tonight into tomorrow. East to southeast winds will
continue to increase overnight as Ian pulls closer to the Gulf
coast. Generally MVFR conditions, with occasional IFR during
periods of heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 506 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Dangerous marine conditions will continue across the local waters
through Thursday night as Hurricane Ian moves slowly northward in
the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions across the Atlantic and Gulf waters
will gradually improve on Friday and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 506 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Dangerous beach conditions will continue across all South Florida
beaches through at least Thursday as Hurricane Ian slowly approaches
the west coast of Florida.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  88  79  89 /  90  90  70  60
West Kendall     78  88  78  89 /  90  80  70  60
Opa-Locka        78  88  78  89 /  90  90  70  60
Homestead        78  87  78  87 /  90  90  70  60
Fort Lauderdale  79  88  80  89 /  90  80  70  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  87  80  88 /  90  80  70  60
Pembroke Pines   78  87  78  88 /  90  80  70  60
West Palm Beach  76  87  78  88 /  90  90  80  70
Boca Raton       78  90  78  90 /  90  80  70  60
Naples           75  85  79  84 / 100  90  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Watch for FLZ063-066-070.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ063-066>068-070>075-168-172>174.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ069.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ069-075.

     Storm Surge Watch for FLZ174.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ610.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ657.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ656-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CMF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
522 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
282130-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
522 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...Hurricane Ian Continues to Move Northward in the Gulf...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic, Biscayne Bay, South
Florida, Gulf of Mexico and Lake Okeechobee.

Please refer to the Hurricane Local statement and Hurricane Threat
and Impacts graphics: www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl#hti

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
415 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

FLZ067-068-071-072-168-272045-
Inland Broward County FL-Coastal Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Broward County FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
Metro Palm Beach County FL-
415 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Broward
and southeastern Palm Beach Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles east of
Ocean Ridge to near East Toll Gate On Alligator Alley. Movement was
north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Coral Springs, West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, Delray
Beach, Wellington, Lake Worth, Palm Beach, Highland Beach, Ocean
Ridge, Greenacres, Parkland, Palm Springs, Lantana, Atlantis, Cloud
Lake, Loxahatchee NWR, Mission Bay, Palm Beach International Airport
and Hamptons At Boca Raton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for southeastern
Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2675 8000 2638 8060 2615 8050 2643 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 171DEG 33KT 2652 7993 2617 8049

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
456 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TORNADO          7 ENE FORTYMILE BEND    25.80N 80.72W
09/27/2022                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO BY TDS BY DUAL POL.

&&

BNB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
459 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TORNADO          15 SE MICCOSUKEE INDIAN 26.02N 80.68W
09/27/2022                   BROWARD            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO BY TDS BY DUAL POL.

&&

BNB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
524 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TORNADO          1 WSW LOOP ROAD EE CENT 25.75N 80.99W
09/27/2022                   MONROE             FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO BY TDS BY DUAL POL.

&&

BNB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
803 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TORNADO          2 S COOPER CITY         26.03N 80.27W
09/27/2022                   BROWARD            FL   UNKNOWN

            RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS)
            CONFIRMS TORNADO.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 PM     TORNADO          2 SW HOLLYWOOD          26.01N 80.19W
09/27/2022                   BROWARD            FL   UNKNOWN

            RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS)
            CONFIRMS TORNADO.

&&

DH