Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
207 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

An upper low INVOF SE AZ will move into western NM overnight.
Meanwhile, the cold front will have moved into the Trans Pecos
area. Post-frontal isentropic ascent still looks to persist
through the night and into Monday afternoon, but does weaken later
Monday Night. The associated upper jet looks to have trended
north some, and accordingly so the NAM12 has decreased QPF. Still,
the pattern is favorable for rain with rich moisture through the
column. The 00Z/16 to 12Z/16 runs of the HREF showed slight
decrease in QPF from the 1-1.25" to 0.75-1" across southeastern
NM/Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos through 7 AM Monday. Meanwhile,
the ECMWF has been consistently producing higher QPF than the
morning runs of the HRRR, while NAMBUFR sounding at MAF shows a
completely saturated sounding after 10 PM tonight, so will leave
the Flood Watch in place through at least tonight. Clouds and a
rain-cooled post-frontal air mass will allow for an unseasonably
cold day tomorrow with a narrow diurnal range, and temperatures
mostly hovering in the 50s. Clouds will have a chance to decrease
and/or clear out by Tuesday morning, however residual surface
moisture could favor formation of fog. Otherwise, it will be cool
Tuesday morning with widespread lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

The chaotic pattern will finally vacate to the east Tuesday as
the lingering shortwave gets absorbed into the mean longwave
trough centered east of the Mississippi. Lower heights will hang
around for one more day on Tuesday leading to highs generally in
the 60s for much of the region, but a nice return of sunshine. We
see a moderation in temperatures by Wednesday as a large ridge
across the west begins poking into the area with higher heights.
Highs in the 70s and 80s, and lows generally in the 50s, with 40s
to the north return area-wide from Wednesday through the end of
the week. Another meandering low off of Baja will be the next
disturbance to watch as guidance toys with opening the wave and
ejecting it eastward. A lot of details to parse with the system,
so will not mention much beyond Saturday. The one guarantee is the
weather will shift to quiet and mild for most of the forecast
period, considering how we start the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

Widespread precipitation continues across the area as cooler air
filters in behind this morning's cold frontal passage. While some
VFR conditions will occasionally occur, lowering ceilings and
visibility in precipitation will result in primarily MVFR/IFR
conditions at TAF sites through the rest of the day and into the
overnight hours. Winds will continue to be gusty at times from the
north and northeast behind the cold front with occasional gusts of
20 to 25 knots. Will continue to mention thunder in the TAFs
through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               52  58  48  65 / 100  80  20   0
Carlsbad                 51  55  48  62 / 100  60  30   0
Dryden                   60  64  52  62 /  90  90  40  10
Fort Stockton            54  58  48  62 / 100  90  30   0
Guadalupe Pass           46  51  44  55 /  90  50  30   0
Hobbs                    49  55  45  63 /  90  80  20   0
Marfa                    49  57  41  58 /  80  70  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     52  56  48  63 / 100  90  20   0
Odessa                   53  56  48  63 / 100  90  20   0
Wink                     53  58  47  63 /  90  70  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-
     Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 2 AM CDT Monday for Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

NM...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Central Lea County-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...99

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
245 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

TXZ045-046-162015-
Dawson-Gaines-
245 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN GAINES
AND NORTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Welch, or 11 miles northwest of Lamesa, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lamesa, Welch, Lamesa Municipal Airport, Los Ybanez, Punkin Center
and Arvana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 10190 3272 10230 3290 10233 3296 10217
      3296 10192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 257DEG 28KT 3284 10211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
257 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

TXZ067-075-274-162015-
Pecos-Reeves County Plains-Ward-
257 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL PECOS,
EASTERN REEVES AND SOUTHEASTERN WARD COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Grandfalls, or 23 miles southwest of Monahans, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coyanosa and Imperial Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 10314 3136 10323 3149 10293 3123 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 247DEG 24KT 3130 10310

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
302 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

TXZ075-274-162015-
Pecos-Reeves County Plains-
302 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PECOS
AND EAST CENTRAL REEVES COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles southeast of Barstow, or 22 miles southeast of Pecos, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
B F Goodrich Testing Track.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10329 3122 10335 3128 10320 3114 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 253DEG 18KT 3119 10322

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

42