River Flood Warning 24, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

An upper level ridge is over the Desert Southwest with an upper
low over northern Mexico. This upper low is resulting in increased
upper lift and moisture across West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. Models are generally showing rain amounts increasing this
afternoon across most of the area. This trend is also indicated on
radar. A Flash Food Watch is currently in effect for most areas
south of the Pecos River through tonight. There is a moderate risk
of excessive rainfall today through tonight for portions of the
area south of the Pecos River with a slight risk across most of
the rest of the area. High temperatures this afternoon will mostly
be in the 70s and 80s due to increase in cloud cover and rain.
Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 60s and 70s.
Conditions tomorrow will be fairly similar to today; however,
precipitation amounts and coverage may be a little less than
today. Have decided not to extend the Flash Flood Watch at this
time due to expected decreasing rain amounts. Temperatures
tomorrow night will be similar to those tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through  Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

Upper level high pressure that is normally much closer to our
area, will remain stationary over the western United States
through the middle of next week. With the high stationary to our
west, a general troughing (though somewhat chaotic) pattern will
remain from the upper Great Plains to West Texas/East New Mexico.
The presence of the trough will keep enough instability that slight
or low chance rain chances will be warranted into the extended
forecast period though drier air evidenced by PWATs down to near
1" from 1.5" means less coverage. There may be some disturbances
that reach the CWA that could increase rain chances but these
features are difficult for synoptic models to accurately capture
and so have stayed close to NBM ensemble guidance for this
forecast.

The persistent troughing also keeps unusually low 500mb heights
into the Permian Basin causing temperatures to remain below
normal. Highs are not expected to reach 90 degrees anywhere the
next seven days except perhaps right along the Rio Grande. The
amount of rainfall recently should also delay and limit any
warming, especially with no strong upper high forming, and have
undercut NBM temp guidance by a few degrees in the extended period
to account for this.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

At this time, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
gradually clearing out and weakening. Most terminals will remain
or go VFR with light winds over the next few hours. HOB and MAF
will have the best chance of a shower or thunderstorm impacting
the terminal this evening and will amend as needed. MVFR ceilings
return early tomorrow morning a couple terminals may briefly fall
to IFR, but confidence is low at this time. Ceilings gradually
lift during the afternoon with additional showers and
thunderstorms possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  82  69  88 /  40  60  30  30
Carlsbad                 66  77  65  85 /  60  50  20  20
Dryden                   70  84  71  87 /  60  40  40  50
Fort Stockton            68  79  68  85 /  60  70  40  50
Guadalupe Pass           61  70  61  77 /  60  50  30  30
Hobbs                    65  78  64  85 /  50  40  20  20
Marfa                    61  74  61  78 /  80  60  60  70
Midland Intl Airport     68  79  67  85 /  40  60  30  30
Odessa                   68  78  68  85 /  40  50  30  30
Wink                     67  78  67  85 /  50  60  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Central Brewster County-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Terrell-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...80
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...91

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-011915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
215 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2022 /115 PM MDT Wed Aug 31 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across much of the
region today. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding and/or river flooding
will be the main concerns through tonight. A Flood Watch is in
effect for areas along and south of the Pecos River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall will be possible
again Thursday and Friday. Localized flash flooding will be the
main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
728 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W CHINA GROVE         32.53N 100.83W
08/31/2022                   SCURRY             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WATER OVER ROAD ALONG CR4156
            BETWEEN HWY 208 AND CHINA GROVE.

&&

DAC

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