Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

130 
WGUS74 KMAF 220117
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
817 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

TXC033-415-220145-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-220822T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Borden TX-Scurry TX-
817 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN BORDEN AND NORTHWESTERN SCURRY COUNTIES...

At 817 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Fluvanna.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Gavett Creek, Bull Creek, Deep Creek, Fivemile Creek, Crooked 
  Creek, Gopher Creek, Little Bull Creek, Mesquite Creek and Mooar 
  Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3282 10152 3296 10152 3296 10142 3296 10134
      3296 10127 3296 10117 3297 10113 3283 10113

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Devin Chehak

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through this
evening mainly over the eastern Permian Basin where a surface low
will track. The potential for heavy rain is there again today given
PWATs near 2" and already moist soils. Don't think this heavy rain
will be as widespread so will hold off on a watch, but some
flash flood warnings are possible if storms train over the same area.

A cold front will move through the region overnight and bring cooler
conditions to start of the work week. Highs will only make it to
around 80 for much of the area minus the Rio Grande where highs will
be in the 90s. Rain chances decrease, but we are still expecting
scattered showers and storms over the region as a mid level
disturbance moves overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through  Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Low/mid-level drying in nw flow aloft and in wake of the cold front
will minimize SB instability Tue, except across the far reaches of
the Trans Pecos where better mstr will hold in place. We believe NBM
has PoPs too far n. Weak surface ridging and ne surface winds will
keep high temps below normal, but warmer than Mon. Little change on
Wed with minimal PoPs at best across the PB/SE NM. Mid-level ridging
attempts to start pushing ewd Thu and mid-levels will be a little
drier. Any convection will be confined to the vicinity of the Rio
Grande, NBM looks to be too far n with PoPs. Mid-level flow starts
to respond to the approach of a trof from the nw on Fri, and the
MSLP gradient will tighten. Said trof will then be slow to move
across and loiters thru Sunday. Since yesterday's model runs there
is less amplification with the trof, less QPF, and never pushes a
front thru. ECMWF is most aggressive redeveloping the mid-level
ridge back across the area with high temps low/mid 90s most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Main concerns this forecast will be MVFR cigs developing most
terminals for a few hours as a cold front makes its way through
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Front is currently over the
South Plains, and should fropa KHOB shortly after sundown, and
clear KFST shortly after sunrise. Convection will be possible all
terminals, but chances are too low for a mention attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  80  68  85 /  50  50  30  30
Carlsbad                 67  83  66  83 /  40  40  40  40
Dryden                   75  91  73  87 /  50  50  50  50
Fort Stockton            70  84  69  84 /  40  50  50  50
Guadalupe Pass           63  76  62  76 /  50  50  40  50
Hobbs                    66  78  64  83 /  40  40  30  30
Marfa                    62  79  61  79 /  60  70  50  60
Midland Intl Airport     69  80  67  83 /  40  50  30  40
Odessa                   71  81  69  84 /  40  50  30  30
Wink                     69  84  68  85 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-221930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
220 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 /120 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon
and tonight across the area. The main concern with these storms will
be heavy rain that could produce flooding and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday and may produce
heavy rainfall which could result in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland