Tornado Warning 71, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
658 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

An upper lvl storm system was centered over eastern NM early this
aftn, with an assocd sfc low situated acrs Srn OK. The deepening sfc
low is resulting in breezy south winds ovr much of AR. Low level
moisture/clouds have contd to advect Nwd acrs the FA since this
mrng, with >60F sfc dewpoints noted ovr all but far of N AR.

The aforementioned storm sys is still on track to lift to the NW of
AR thru tngt. The assocd CDFNT wl sweep acrs the FA fm the west,
providing a focus for scattered to numerous storms tngt into early
Sat. Overall timing is mostly unchanged, with a line of storms movg
into Wrn AR arnd sunset, into central AR arnd midnight, with the
activity moving east of the MS River by daybreak Sat AM.

CAMS model solutions rmn in good agreement with overall trends the
next 12 to 24 hrs. Sctd convection is expected to dvlp later this
aftn acrs Ern OK/Wrn AR, with the activity evolving into a squall
line as it shifts to the east tngt. Impressive fcst low lvl wind
speeds were noted again this mrng, with 950 mb speeds exceeding
50kts and 850 mb winds apchg 70 kts along and ahead of the
convection tngt.

Since this is a high shear/low CAPE environment, damaging winds wl
be the primary threat, along with a few tornadoes possible. The fcst
low lvl wind profiles still favor w-cntrl/s-cntrl portions of the FA
for tornadic storms into early this evening, primarily where
isolated supercells can form. Isolated 'spin ups' cannot be ruled
out later this evening as the storm mode transitions into a QLCS
line of storms. One of the inhibiting factors with this scenario wl
be the potential lack of instability during the mid to late aftn if
low clouds persist.

With such a dynamic storm system, gusty winds wl be common acrs the
region heading into Sat. Other than some minor adjustments to fcst
wind speeds, plan to keep the Wind Advisory placement as is.

Drier and much calmer conds wl return heading in Sat as the CDFNT
pushes to the east of AR. Sat aftn highs wl generally be in the 60s.
South winds quickly return for Sun, with highs returning to the 70s
for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Through the period, a highly amplified upper pattern will develop as
large scale ridging builds over the eastern CONUS and deep troughing
sets up along the West Coast. A warm front will lift north across AR
on Monday as this transition occurs, and enough instability/moisture
will be present to support iso/sctd showers and storms. Well above
average temps are also expected, especially during the first half of
the week, as upper ridging expands into the MS Valley. Daily highs
in the 70s/80s and nightly lows in the 50s/60s will be common.

The pattern will begin to shift mid into late week with western
upper troughing moving across the Intermountain West and eastern
upper ridging moving into the Atlantic. Southerly surface flow and
deeper moisture will return locally during this time. As the
incoming western trough approaches late week, rain chances will
begin to increase over western/northwestern sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

SHRA/TSRA will move into the CWA from the W along and ahead of a
cold front. S/SE winds will increase this evening ahead of the
line of convection. Additionally, winds will be erratic and gusty
within TSRA activity. VFR conds will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR
within convection. Given the amount of wind shear overnight, wind
shear was included at all terminals. Conds will improve S/Cntrl
overnight, with conds improving N Sat morning. Winds will switch
the W in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  63  45  73 / 100  10   0   0
Camden AR         50  67  44  77 / 100   0   0   0
Harrison AR       44  59  44  71 / 100   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    48  65  44  75 / 100   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  55  67  47  78 / 100   0   0   0
Monticello AR     57  68  49  78 / 100  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      44  65  43  75 / 100   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  48  60  44  72 / 100   0   0   0
Newport AR        56  62  44  72 / 100  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     55  67  46  77 / 100  10   0   0
Russellville AR   48  63  43  75 / 100   0   0   0
Searcy AR         53  64  42  76 / 100  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      57  65  46  75 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ006>008-014>017-024-
025-032>034-044>047-056-057-064-065-069-123-223.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...70

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-051000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
241 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will increase from the west this evening and move
across Arkansas through early Saturday morning. Tornadoes, large
hail, and widespread damaging winds will be possible with the
highest tornado threat over west-central and southwest Arkansas.
Storms will diminish before sunrise on Saturday.

Strong non-thunderstorm winds are also likely tonight, mainly for
the eastern half of the area. Sustained speeds up to 25 mph and
gusts to 45 mph will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A warm front will lift to the north late Sunday night and into
Monday with a few thunderstorms possible. No other hazardous
weather is expected through the period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon through early
Saturday morning.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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