Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
643 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms west of KPVW will affect that terminal
within the first hour or two of the valid time and may possibly
build southward toward KLBB. KCDS will be affected by the
thunderstorms later this evening. Some question at this time as to
whether there will be additional thunderstorms fill in behind the
first round. Confidence higher in showers and MVFR and possibly
IFR conditions developing with a cold front late tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 206 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022/

SHORT TERM...
The forecast for this afternoon and tonight remains on track. Please
reference the mesoscale discussion issued at 1051 AM CDT for
detailed information.

Convection is expected to be ongoing during the early morning hours
Tuesday across the Caprock and Rolling Plains from both the
departing MCS and the frontogenetically-forced convection moving in
from the northwest. Severe-caliber gusts up to 50 kt will be
possible within the deepest cores, though the main overnight hazard
will be heavy rainfall resulting in localized flash flooding. The
cold front will scour out low-level moisture with most of the wrap-
around showers/thunderstorms remaining displaced north of the CWA,
with the surface cyclone positioning in vicinity of the northwestern
Permian Basin by 24/12Z. PoPs have been lowered significantly beyond
24/18Z area-wide, with most of the CWA dry by 21Z tomorrow excluding
the southern South and Rolling Plains, and the eastern Rolling
Plains, given some degree of uncertainty with respect to the timing
of frontal passage. STG-SVR thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon across the southern and eastern zones, though convection
will quickly exit the CWA by the early evening. Cloud cover will
begin to clear out in the southwestern zones first, though the
northerly breeze/magnitude of CAA will keep temperatures cool to
mild, ranging from the lower 60s across the extreme southwestern TX
PH and into the middle 70s in the southern South and Rolling
Plains.

LONG TERM...
Frontal-driven convection is likely to clear the forecast area by
or very early into the Tuesday evening portion of the forecast as
the upper trough axis will be shifting to the east of the area
leaving increasing subsidence in its wake while low level focus
will shift south with the front and thunderstorm outflow. Dry
northwesterly flow aloft and a reinforced cool post-frontal air
mass will result in one more pleasant day before the quick
transition back to a hot and dry pattern begins.

A fairly high-amplitude ridge over the intermountain West at the
end of the day Thursday will migrate eastward, its axis centered
over the forecast area Friday night, will lead to increasing
temperatures Thursday and Friday. However, peak temperatures are
not expected until the Saturday to Monday period when deep
southwesterly flow moves onto the southern High Plains, allowing
for a hot air mass building over New Mexico to get shifted
eastward across the southern High Plains while also adding a
downslope component to the heating. Widespread triple-digit high
temperatures continue to look likely Saturday and Sunday, and now
Monday as well, especially for areas east of the Caprock
escarpment and the southern half of the South Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1146 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

TXZ021>044-241700-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1146 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to form along the Texas and
New Mexico state line this afternoon. Initially, thunderstorms will
be capable of producing large hail to around half dollar size in
addition to damaging winds across the Caprock. Thunderstorms will
transition into a line by the middle to late afternoon hours while
moving west to east across the Caprock and into the Rolling Plains,
with an increasing potential for wind damage with a few swaths of
winds between 60 to 70 mph possible. Locally heavy rainfall is
expected as well, with some locations receiving two inches or greater
of rainfall which may result in localized instances of flash
flooding. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
overnight across the region as a cold front moves in from the
northwest, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall into the
morning hours Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Tuesday. Some storms
could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall also possible
across the Caprock and Rolling Plains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S ENOCHS              33.83N 102.76W
05/23/2022                   BAILEY             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200026

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
653 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             3 S BOVINA              34.47N 102.89W
05/23/2022  E2.50 INCH       PARMER             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200027

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TORNADO          7 NW MORTON             33.80N 102.84W
05/23/2022                   COCHRAN            TX   STORM CHASER

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOS AND REPORTS DEPICT A BRIEF TORNADO
            TOUCHDOWN IN AN OPEN FIELD. LOCATION ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200028

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
712 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TORNADO          7 N MORTON              33.83N 102.76W
05/23/2022                   BAILEY             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TORNADO REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200029

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
757 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE MORTON            33.73N 102.74W
05/23/2022  M80 MPH          COCHRAN            TX   MESONET

            WEST TEXAS MESONET. 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS ALSO
            OBSERVED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200030

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
811 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TORNADO          4 SW PEP                33.77N 102.61W
05/23/2022                   HOCKLEY            TX   STORM CHASER

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF TORNADO TOUCHING DOWN IN OPEN
            FIELD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200031

DWK