Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
227 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...

No change for today's forecast from the Mesoscale Update issued at
noon. Later tonight, shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected
to diminish and/or move E-NE out of our area by midnight. Cooler
air filling in behind the upper level low over the Panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma will drop overnight lows area wide, into the
mid-40s. Northerly winds tomorrow afternoon will keep temperatures
in the low to mid 70s, even as heights and thickness' increase
from the building ridge to our west. Breezy early afternoon winds
will begin to ease as the ridge expands eastward, setting up a
very pleasant Spring day and evening tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...

A largely uneventful pattern returns later this week accompanied by
a return to triple digit heat for much of the region. This is thanks
to an upper low lumbering its way out of the southern Great Plains
Wednesday night ahead of upper ridging with strong height rises and
toasty thicknesses for the weekend. Although PWATs during this
time will be around 1/2" (close to normal for late May), background
support for ascent will be too poor for any further rain chances.

As the upper ridge flattens on Friday while shifting downstream of
the region, deeper W-SW flow will open the oven door and result in
widespread triple digit highs this weekend which linger into early
next week. Can't argue much with the NBM and MOS which favor the
hottest highs by Sunday when portions of Stonewall County may hit
110 degrees, although this should still be too isolated and brief
for heat advisory considerations. Not until just beyond the scope
of this forecast (next Tue/Wed) does the pattern begin to trend a
bit more interesting as models favor weak cyclonic SW flow ahead
of a deep low in the Great Basin.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

55/93

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1206 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

TXZ021>044-251715-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1206 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to form across the South
Plains and Rolling Plains early this afternoon and persist into the
evening hours. Initially, the primary threat will be hail up to the
size of quarters and wind gusts to 70 mph however a tornado cannot be
completely ruled out. As we go through the evening the threat will
transition to mostly a wind threat. Locally heavy rainfall will also
be possible with the strongest storms and could pose a localized
flooding risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
506 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE MORTON            33.73N 102.74W
05/24/2022  M66 MPH          COCHRAN            TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY THE WEST TEXAS MESONET BEHIND THE MAIN
            CONVECTIVE CORE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200050

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
509 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 WSW SUNDOWN           33.39N 102.61W
05/24/2022  M66 MPH          COCHRAN            TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY THE WEST TEXAS MESONET. A GUST TO 60 MPH
            WAS SAMPLED AT 457 PM AND TO 58 MPH WAS MEASURED AT 459
            PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200051

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 WSW SUNDOWN           33.39N 102.61W
05/24/2022  M78 MPH          COCHRAN            TX   MESONET

            MEASURED BY THE WEST TEXAS MESONET. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
            REPORTS OCCURRED BETWEEN 457 PM AND 505 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200052

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
514 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             5 S WOLFFORTH           33.44N 102.01W
05/24/2022  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200053

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
519 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     LANDSPOUT        SLIDE                   33.41N 101.93W
05/24/2022                   LUBBOCK            TX   TX DPS

            LANDSPOUT LOCATION ESTIMATED. RELAYED REPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2200054

02