Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

So far it has been a warm and sunny day for most across the region,
with temperatures rising nicely into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Diurnal cumulus are starting to increase across the area, with a few
isolated storms developing over portions of southern IN and north-
central KY as well. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates moderate instability
in place with MLCAPE of 1000 - 2000 J/kg and strong low-level lapse
rates of 8 - 9 C/km. An axis of higher DCAPE values is also
beginning to move in from the west, with values expected to peak
around 800 - 1000 J/kg over the next few hours. The main inhibiting
factor with today's storms will be the lack of stronger kinematics,
with Effective Shear values remaining below 20 kts. As a result,
expect little in the way of organization with these storms. Main
hazards within stronger storm cores will be frequent lightning,
locally gusty winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. With relatively
slow storm motions, some nuisance ponding on roadways will be
possible as well.

Storm coverage is then expected to begin diminishing after sunset
with lingering storms becoming more elevated in nature as the
nocturnal inversion develops. Depending on the degree of clearing we
are able to see overnight, some patchy fog may develop towards
sunrise under calm winds, especially in areas that receive rainfall
today. Temperatures will remain relatively mild overnight, with lows
in the lower to mid 60s. Dry weather is then expected to prevail for
Sunday morning into the early afternoon with mostly sunny skies
leading to high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Precipitation
chances will begin to increase by mid-afternoon into evening as we
destabilize ahead of an approaching system. Model soundings indicate
moderate instability and strong low-level lapse rates with very
little in the way of deep shear as the better forcing will remain to
our west through the evening hours, so again expect any afternoon
and evening convection tomorrow to be disorganized single and
multicell clusters.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

If showers and storms can organize to our northwest Sunday afternoon
850-300mb flow suggests that at least some of the convection would
head generally ESE towards to the Ohio Valley Sunday night. Moist
theta-e rich air with a slightly strengthening low level jet Sunday
night will support maintenance of showers and storms into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky, but the indicated weakening of an
incoming 5H speed max and rapidly weakening instability and lapse
rates would support a more limited severe threat. Soundings indicate
thunderstorms becoming more elevated as the night goes on.
Nevertheless, wet bulb zero heights and strong deep layer shear,
along with some dry air at mid-levels, support the idea of
strong/severe hail/wind before the instability wanes enough to
lessen the threat. The best chance for severe should be before
midnight west of I-65.

After some possible lingering showers in the east Monday morning as
we wait for the actual cold front to push through, dry weather is
expected through at least Tuesday evening as a surface high proceeds
from the Ozarks to the central Appalachians. Tuesday may be the pick
of the week with mostly sunny skies and highs 80-85 but dew points
only around 50.

Wednesday-Thursday will be more unsettled as small ripples in the
upper flow and a complex area of surface low pressure with a trough
reaching east into the Ohio Valley interact with precipitable water
values over 1.50" and ample instability for showers and storms.
Can't rule out some strong storms both days.

By the end of the week PoPs lessen as heights rise and the main
surface triggers remain just off to our west and north.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

Current satellite imagery shows afternoon cu field is starting to
pop across southern IN and north-central KY, with a few isolated
thunderstorms having developed as well. As we move through the
afternoon and evening, expect scattered pop-up storms to continue
developing across the entire area. However, confidence remains low
on when any of these storms may impact a specific terminal. As a
result, have just included broad VCTS through the afternoon and
evening with TEMPO groups to cover what is currently expected to be
the most active time frame for storms. Brief heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, hail and locally gusty winds will be the main
threats within storms, with IFR visibilities possible in the heaviest
rain.

Thunderstorms will gradually diminish after sunset, although some
coverage may continue into the early overnight hours. As drier air
begins to advect in overnight, expect at least a partial clearing of
skies which may lead to development of fog towards sunrise,
especially in areas that receive rainfall today. Fog will then clear
after sunrise giving way to mostly sunny skies by mid to late
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...JML
Long Term...13
Aviation...JML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-151930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
323 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 /223 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The
main threats will be frequent lightning, torrential rain, gusty
winds, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday. While storms will be
possible through the night, the best chance for severe weather should
be in the evening. The main threats with the strongest storms will
be gusty winds and marginally severe hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this afternoon and evening, and may
be needed Sunday evening.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms this afternoon and evening will move ESE at 10 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

JML/13

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>