Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

So far it has been a warm and sunny day for most across the region,
with temperatures rising nicely into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Diurnal cumulus are starting to increase across the area, with a few
isolated storms developing over portions of southern IN and north-
central KY as well. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates moderate instability
in place with MLCAPE of 1000 - 2000 J/kg and strong low-level lapse
rates of 8 - 9 C/km. An axis of higher DCAPE values is also
beginning to move in from the west, with values expected to peak
around 800 - 1000 J/kg over the next few hours. The main inhibiting
factor with today's storms will be the lack of stronger kinematics,
with Effective Shear values remaining below 20 kts. As a result,
expect little in the way of organization with these storms. Main
hazards within stronger storm cores will be frequent lightning,
locally gusty winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. With relatively
slow storm motions, some nuisance ponding on roadways will be
possible as well.

Storm coverage is then expected to begin diminishing after sunset
with lingering storms becoming more elevated in nature as the
nocturnal inversion develops. Depending on the degree of clearing we
are able to see overnight, some patchy fog may develop towards
sunrise under calm winds, especially in areas that receive rainfall
today. Temperatures will remain relatively mild overnight, with lows
in the lower to mid 60s. Dry weather is then expected to prevail for
Sunday morning into the early afternoon with mostly sunny skies
leading to high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Precipitation
chances will begin to increase by mid-afternoon into evening as we
destabilize ahead of an approaching system. Model soundings indicate
moderate instability and strong low-level lapse rates with very
little in the way of deep shear as the better forcing will remain to
our west through the evening hours, so again expect any afternoon
and evening convection tomorrow to be disorganized single and
multicell clusters.

&&

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

If showers and storms can organize to our northwest Sunday afternoon
850-300mb flow suggests that at least some of the convection would
head generally ESE towards to the Ohio Valley Sunday night. Moist
theta-e rich air with a slightly strengthening low level jet Sunday
night will support maintenance of showers and storms into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky, but the indicated weakening of an
incoming 5H speed max and rapidly weakening instability and lapse
rates would support a more limited severe threat. Soundings indicate
thunderstorms becoming more elevated as the night goes on.
Nevertheless, wet bulb zero heights and strong deep layer shear,
along with some dry air at mid-levels, support the idea of
strong/severe hail/wind before the instability wanes enough to
lessen the threat. The best chance for severe should be before
midnight west of I-65.

After some possible lingering showers in the east Monday morning as
we wait for the actual cold front to push through, dry weather is
expected through at least Tuesday evening as a surface high proceeds
from the Ozarks to the central Appalachians. Tuesday may be the pick
of the week with mostly sunny skies and highs 80-85 but dew points
only around 50.

Wednesday-Thursday will be more unsettled as small ripples in the
upper flow and a complex area of surface low pressure with a trough
reaching east into the Ohio Valley interact with precipitable water
values over 1.50" and ample instability for showers and storms.
Can't rule out some strong storms both days.

By the end of the week PoPs lessen as heights rise and the main
surface triggers remain just off to our west and north.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

Current satellite imagery shows afternoon cu field is starting to
pop across southern IN and north-central KY, with a few isolated
thunderstorms having developed as well. As we move through the
afternoon and evening, expect scattered pop-up storms to continue
developing across the entire area. However, confidence remains low
on when any of these storms may impact a specific terminal. As a
result, have just included broad VCTS through the afternoon and
evening with TEMPO groups to cover what is currently expected to be
the most active time frame for storms. Brief heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, hail and locally gusty winds will be the main
threats within storms, with IFR visibilities possible in the heaviest
rain.

Thunderstorms will gradually diminish after sunset, although some
coverage may continue into the early overnight hours. As drier air
begins to advect in overnight, expect at least a partial clearing of
skies which may lead to development of fog towards sunrise,
especially in areas that receive rainfall today. Fog will then clear
after sunrise giving way to mostly sunny skies by mid to late
morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...JML
Long Term...13
Aviation...JML

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-151930-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
323 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022 /223 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The
main threats will be frequent lightning, torrential rain, gusty
winds, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe storms will be possible Sunday. While storms will be
possible through the night, the best chance for severe weather should
be in the evening. The main threats with the strongest storms will
be gusty winds and marginally severe hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this afternoon and evening, and may
be needed Sunday evening.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms this afternoon and evening will move ESE at 10 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

JML/13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
326 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

INZ091-092-KYZ030-142000-
Floyd IN-Clark IN-Jefferson KY-
326 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Clark,
central Floyd and west central Jefferson Counties through 400 PM
EDT...

At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Albany, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jeffersonville around 330 PM EDT.
  Louisville around 335 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 8590 3835 8579 3823 8571 3821 8592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 355DEG 9KT 3829 8582

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
346 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

KYZ035-039-040-142015-
Woodford KY-Franklin KY-Anderson KY-
346 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Woodford, northeastern Anderson and Franklin Counties through 415 PM
EDT...

At 345 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Frankfort, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Woodford, Franklin and northeastern Anderson Counties, including the
following locations... Slickway, Farmdale, Capital City Airport,
Broadville Manor, Woodlake, Peaks Mill, Switzer, Harvieland, Elmville
and Alton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8473 3821 8473 3820 8472 3819 8473
      3818 8472 3809 8471 3808 8494 3833 8495
      3835 8482 3835 8481 3834 8479 3835 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 272DEG 12KT 3826 8484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
357 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

INZ076-142030-
Orange IN-
357 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Orange County
through 430 PM EDT...

At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paoli, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Paoli around 405 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8642 3848 8632 3842 8666 3850 8668
      3869 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 331DEG 17KT 3858 8653

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
359 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

INZ091-KYZ030-142030-
Floyd IN-Jefferson KY-
359 PM EDT Sat May 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Floyd
and west central Jefferson Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Louisville, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Audubon Park and Strathmoor Village around 405 PM EDT.
  Watterson Park, Strathmoor Manor and Newburg around 410 PM EDT.
  West Buechel, Lynnview, Poplar Hills, Buechel and Valley Station
  around 415 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Okolona and
Fairdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 8579 3829 8577 3827 8576 3827 8573
      3817 8563 3808 8588 3828 8588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 332DEG 14KT 3823 8576

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
403 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W LOUISVILLE          38.26N 85.83W
05/14/2022                   JEFFERSON          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE ON CAR AT SOUTHWESTERN PARKWAY AND
            HERMAN STREET. CAR WAS OCCUPIED BUT OCCUPANT
            WAS NOT INJURED.

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
407 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW LOUISVILLE        38.24N 85.80W
05/14/2022                   JEFFERSON          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE ON A HOUSE AT 28TH AND KENTUCKY
            STREETS.

&&

13