Wind Advisory 9, NWS New Orleans, LA

542 
WWUS74 KLIX 301720
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

LAZ061-063-064-068>070-076>078-MSZ080>082-310600-
/O.CON.KLIX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0200Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.WI.Y.0009.220331T0200Z-220331T0600Z/
Upper Jefferson-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Lower Jefferson-Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-
Southeast St. Tammany-Western Orleans-Eastern Orleans-Hancock-
Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Metairie, Kenner, Belle Chasse, 
Chalmette, Violet, Grand Isle, Buras, Pointe A La Hache, 
Port Sulphur, Boothville, Venice, Empire, Myrtle Grove, 
Yscloskey, Slidell, New Orleans, East New Orleans, Bay St. Louis,
Waveland, Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, 
Moss Point, Gautier, and St. Martin
1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
CDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, south winds 20 to 30 mph 
  with gusts up to 50 mph. For the Wind Advisory, southwest 
  winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast and southern Mississippi and 
  southeast Louisiana.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 9 PM CDT this evening. 
  For the Wind Advisory, from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT 
  Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056>060-065>067-071-072-075-MSZ068>071-077-
310200-
/O.CON.KLIX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0200Z/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-
Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-
St. Charles-Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-
Northern Tangipahoa-Southern Tangipahoa-Northwest St. Tammany-
Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Bayou Sorrel, Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, 
Brusly, Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, Watson, Walker, Pierre Part, Labadieville, 
Paincourtville, Convent, Lutcher, Gramercy, Laplace, Reserve, 
Thibodaux, Raceland, Larose, Destrehan, Norco, Houma, Bayou Cane,
Chauvin, Cocodrie, Dulac, Montegut, Galliano, Cut Off, 
Golden Meadow, Leeville, Amite, Kentwood, Roseland, Wilmer, 
Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula, Mandeville, Covington, Lacombe, 
Centreville, Dolorosa, Fort Adams, Woodville, Gillsberg, Gloster,
Smithdale, Liberty, McComb, Dexter, Salem, Tylertown, Crossroads,
McNeil, Poplarville, and Picayune
1220 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Mississippi and southeast 
  Louisiana.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

892 
WWUS74 KLIX 310215
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
915 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

LAZ061-063-064-068>070-076>078-MSZ080>082-310600-
/O.EXP.KLIX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0200Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-220331T0600Z/
Upper Jefferson-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-
Lower Jefferson-Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-
Southeast St. Tammany-Western Orleans-Eastern Orleans-Hancock-
Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Metairie, Kenner, Belle Chasse, 
Chalmette, Violet, Grand Isle, Buras, Pointe A La Hache, 
Port Sulphur, Boothville, Venice, Empire, Myrtle Grove, 
Yscloskey, Slidell, New Orleans, East New Orleans, Bay St. Louis,
Waveland, Diamondhead, Gulfport, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, 
Moss Point, Gautier, and St. Martin
915 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast and southern Mississippi and 
  southeast Louisiana.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM CDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056>060-065>067-071-072-075-MSZ068>071-077-
310315-
/O.EXP.KLIX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0200Z/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-Livingston-
Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-
St. Charles-Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-
Northern Tangipahoa-Southern Tangipahoa-Northwest St. Tammany-
Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Including the cities of New Roads, Lettsworth, Livonia, Spillman,
St. Francisville, Wakefield, Jackson, Clinton, Felps, Darlington,
Easleyville, Greensburg, Montpelier, Bogalusa, Enon, Franklinton,
Bayou Sorrel, Plaquemine, White Castle, Port Allen, Addis, 
Brusly, Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Donaldsonville, Prairieville, 
Denham Springs, Watson, Walker, Pierre Part, Labadieville, 
Paincourtville, Convent, Lutcher, Gramercy, Laplace, Reserve, 
Thibodaux, Raceland, Larose, Destrehan, Norco, Houma, Bayou Cane,
Chauvin, Cocodrie, Dulac, Montegut, Galliano, Cut Off, 
Golden Meadow, Leeville, Amite, Kentwood, Roseland, Wilmer, 
Hammond, Robert, Ponchatoula, Mandeville, Covington, Lacombe, 
Centreville, Dolorosa, Fort Adams, Woodville, Gillsberg, Gloster,
Smithdale, Liberty, McComb, Dexter, Salem, Tylertown, Crossroads,
McNeil, Poplarville, and Picayune
915 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Wind speeds have diminished behind the line of thunderstorms. High
winds are no longer expected. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
431 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
There are little in the way of changes this morning to the ongoing
message. Still expecting this system to be a line of strong/severe
thunderstorms moving through the area. All indications of a QLCS
type setup are there. This coupled with extraordinary low level
kinematics will keep the number 2 element as tornadic spinups within
these QLCS along the line. One very intersting thing is 3CAPE values
move from a mere 9J about 30 miles ahead of the line to 100+J within
5 miles of the line. This is also the case for coastal Miss where
these values are 80+J. The area will have some clouds around this
morning but a large area of clouds are expected to develop ahead of
this system and this should become evident around or after 10am
today. This will prevent a strong addition of localized CAPE values
from heating but advected CAPE values will suffice as they should be
able to ramp up toward 1300J and a few locations could have up to
2kJ. As the line approaches, the instability over coastal Miss does
not fade, so if there are any cells that can develop ahead of the
line, they would not be an issue for areas between the line and
coastal Miss, but if over coastal Miss, they would need to be
watched. Although, this will be a tough environment to get started
in as a weak cap will exist around 850mb until the line gets there.

The next thing will be gradient winds pre-line. Probabilities
are quite high(60+%) for all areas getting gusts >41kt/47mph.
Percentages drop off as we approach >48kt/55mph, but the numbers do
make one take notice. These are highest over the Atchafalya
Basin(50%) near McComb(36%) and over Jackson County Miss(55%). These
percentages are simply too high to not set the entire area under the
high wind warning as it would not be that difficult to achieve near
or better than 60mph in some gusts. Not all locations will get these
very high gusts and most areas highest gust should average 45 to 55
mph. With this in mind, there is also no doubt this could cause some
sporatic power outages. All motorists will find driving difficult
today but those driving high profile vehicles need to be very aware
of these conditions when driving over elevated roadways/bridges.

Will also bring up a coastal flood advisory with this package. BUT,
this will not be the main message today and will mainly be done for
cosmetic reasons. There are a few areas that could get some very
minor inundation but several things are preventing this from being a
larger issue. One, we are in a neap cycle. Two, onshore flow is
strong but will be duration limited. Three, the sfc high(or atleast
ridge/lobe) is stubborn to move from the Florida Pen area, which is
by the way why our synoptic pressure gradient will be so strong
today. But this feature is causing winds to bend from a SE direction
over the Keys to an almost due S direction near the Miss River to
Mosbile Bay. While west of us, the strong low is causing winds to
remain in a SE direction all the way to shore. This is causing a
subtle divergent wind field at the sfc near the Miss River mouth
causing water to pile west of the area and east of the area. But
this is subtle and with these wind speeds, there could be a few
locations or marinas that get some water in and around their parking
areas.

As the front approaches, the actual frontal boundary will slow to a
crawl by sundown near the Atchfalaya Basin while the convective
activity continues on at a good pace to the east. The front will
manage to get through the area by sunrise to bring some dry air and
relief to the area through Friday. But Friday will see this front
that will have stalled over the gulf, moving back toward the area as
a warm front.

.Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

A dry start to the long term is expected as high pressure remains
centered near the Tennessee River Valley with northeast winds across
our region. Temperatures will be near normal with slightly drier air
in place. The upper level 500mb pattern remains relatively zonal
across the North Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a stalled boundary will be
draped just off south across the the coastal waters.

Heading into the weekend, a storm system will track across the
Central Plains and into the Ohio River Valley. A weak short wave
will ride the periphery of trough across Louisiana and surface flow
will be southerly allowing the aforementioned boundary to lift
across SE LA and Southern MS. As such, rain chances with some
thunderstorm activity is expected to return to the forecast for much
of Saturday.

However, this system will quickly move off to the east with an even
stronger high pressure system settling across the South-Central
CONUS and zonal flow remaining aloft. Warm and dry weather will
round out the weekend and continue into the first half of Monday.

The break from rain will be short lived as yet another short wave
moves across the region aloft. There will be the likelihood of
widespread showers and storms, however, at this time the pattern
doesn't look conducive for severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
Although vis will be VFR most of the day. They will fall to <=1/2sm
as the line of strong/severe thundrstorms move over each site. Cigs
will also be in VFR/MVFR range through much of the day, but will
tempo fall to IFR to LIFR range for a short time as this line
passes. The main issue will be strong possibly damaging winds ahead
and along the line and wind shear just off the sfc. Winds ahead of
this line will be mainly S@25G40kt and there will be a real
possibility that one or two terminals get a severe TS today bringing
the possibility of 65+kt. This line should be through all terminals
by midnight tonight.

&&

MARINE...Gale Warning will remain as is, with conditions relaxing on
Thursday. Exercise Caution headlines likely to be appropriate at
times over the weekend over the open waters. Likely to need Small
Craft Advisories ahead of the next large scale trough around Monday
night or Tuesday next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  51  74  45 /  90  30   0   0
BTR  83  51  76  48 / 100  10   0   0
ASD  84  56  78  48 /  70 100   0   0
MSY  83  59  77  56 /  70  80   0   0
GPT  80  59  78  51 /  50 100   0   0
PQL  81  60  78  50 /  50 100   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
     Thursday for LAZ064-066>070-075-076-078.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     LAZ061-063-064-068>070-076>078.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ550-552-555-570-572-
     575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-557.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-
     557.

MS...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
     Thursday for MSZ080>082.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     MSZ080>082.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ552-555-570-572-575-
     577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-557.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-557.

&&