Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
329 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.NEAR TERM...Through Tonight

The forecast for the severe weather this afternoon and evening is
still on track. A tornado watch is in effect for all of LA and
southern MS. The coastal MS counties and Pearl River county is
out of the watch right now but may be added as the line gets that
far east. Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been
issued by offices to the west with a few reports of structural and
tree damage. Ahead of the line, winds are already gusting 40-50
MPH which is already causing tree damage and power outages. It
won't take much more wind in the line to have severe storms and
cause more damage. This will be enhanced by some mid level drying.
The main threat is still damaging wind gusts in the line but
brief tornadoes within the line are still a possibility and there
is a history of those in the line.

Ahead of the line, showers have not been able to get going due to
a cap. This cap should continue to break which will enhance the
instability in front of the line, keeping the line strong to
severe as it moves into SE LA. There's already 60-70 knots of bulk
shear, with 30-40 knots of 0-1 km shear. The shear is there; the
question is the instability, which continues to increase each
hour.

Overall, there is really no change to our thoughts over the last
few days. The line is still expected to have severe winds (greater
than 58 MPH gust) when it moves through the region. The latest
timing for when the line gets to a parish/county is similar to
before, Wilkinson/Iberville/Pointe Coupee from now through 4PM,
Baton Rouge area 4-7, New Orleans 6-9 and the MS coast 8-10.
Remember to take severe thunderstorm warnings as serious as
tornado and get to an interior room if a warning is issued!

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday Night

By Thursday morning, the front will be off to the east with drier
and cooler air moving in and winds subsiding. Lows Thu night will
be in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Surface high pressure quickly
moves into the region but the previous front will stall over
the open Gulf. Rain looks to redevelop over the boundary from west
to east with the aid of a weak shortwave in zonal flow aloft.
This looks to be mostly Saturday evening and overnight. Highs and
lows will start to warm again as we go into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

An upper trough is moving through the northeast on Sunday with a
lingering boundary along the Gulf Coast. High pressure will
continue to move southeast over the region. As the upper pattern
flattens, the surface high pressure will shift to the east but the
area will remain dry. The next trough will start to dig into the
desert southwest Monday afternoon. With a surface low forming
ahead of it, a front and its precip will start to move in Monday
night and move through by Wednesday morning.

Highs will be generally in the lower 80s through the long term.
Lows will be in the 50s Sat and Sun night and then warming into
the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are occurring with conditions
probably settling to IFR/VFR as the rain moves in. Wind gusts are
gusting as high as 40 knots with sustained anywhere from 20-30
knots. Occasionally higher values are possible. A line of strong
to severe thunderstorms is going to move through this evening and
the line was timed out with TEMPO groups. Wind gusts of 50-60kts
are possible with that line, if not higher than that. Behind the
line, winds shift NW and will be less than 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning will remain as is, with conditions relaxing on
Thursday. Exercise Caution headlines likely to be appropriate at
times over the weekend over the open waters. Likely to need Small
Craft Advisories ahead of the next large scale trough around Monday
night or Tuesday next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  51  73  45  75 /  30   0   0   0
BTR  51  75  47  77 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  56  77  48  78 / 100   0   0   0
MSY  59  75  56  75 /  80   0   0   0
GPT  59  77  51  76 / 100   0   0   0
PQL  60  77  50  76 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>050-056>061-063>072-075>078.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ064-
     066>070-075-076-078.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     LAZ061-063-064-068>070-076>078.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ080>082.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
     MSZ080>082.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E TERRYTOWN           29.90N 89.99W
03/30/2022                   ORLEANS            LA   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND DMG REPORT
            FROM 2 E TERRYTOWN. 1-INCH TREE LIMBS
            BROKEN; SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

JFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE LAPLACE           30.03N 90.46W
03/30/2022                   ST. CHARLES        LA   PUBLIC

            1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; SHINGLES BLOWN
            OFF.

&&

JFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
450 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NW GARDERE            30.39N 91.16W
03/30/2022                   EAST BATON ROUGE   LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF DOWNED POWERLINES.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
459 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

LAZ034>037-048-MSZ068-069-302245-
St. Helena LA-East Feliciana LA-Pointe Coupee LA-East Baton Rouge LA-
West Feliciana LA-Wilkinson MS-Amite MS-
459 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western St. Helena,
eastern West Feliciana, southeastern Pointe Coupee and East Feliciana
Parishes, eastern Wilkinson and Amite Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 458 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gloster to 7 miles southeast of St.
Francisville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
New Roads, Jackson, St. Francisville, Clinton, Liberty, Centreville,
Slaughter, Gloster, Wilson, Norwood, Wakefield, Smithdale, Spillman,
Darlington, Gillsberg, Felps, Easleyville and Crosby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southeastern
Louisiana...and southern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9055 3116 9055 3072 9075 3071 9126
      3068 9127 3057 9151 3134 9115 3132 9112
      3134 9106 3133 9103 3135 9102 3133 9099
      3135 9098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 247DEG 38KT 3121 9105 3070 9131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG