Tornado Warning 37, NWS New Orleans, LA

109 
WWUS54 KLIX 300226
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
826 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

MSC005-300300-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-221130T0300Z/
Amite MS-
826 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTY...
    
At 825 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Liberty, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Smithdale around 845 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3130 9054 3120 9055 3109 9079 3124 9096
      3135 9082 3135 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 234DEG 32KT 3120 9085 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Frye

296 
WWUS54 KLIX 300248
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
848 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

MSC005-300300-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-221130T0300Z/
Amite MS-
848 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTY...
    
At 848 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Smithdale, or 10 miles northwest of Mccomb, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Amite County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3127 9055 3126 9067 3135 9082 3135 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 240DEG 37KT 3132 9063 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Frye

645 
WWUS54 KLIX 300258
SVSLIX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
858 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

MSC005-300308-
/O.EXP.KLIX.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-221130T0300Z/
Amite MS-
858 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN AMITE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
900 PM CST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3127 9055 3126 9067 3135 9082 3135 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 224DEG 31KT 3137 9057 

$$

Frye

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
813 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Earlier convection over southwest Mississippi has shifted well to
the northeast. There's been isolated showers west of Interstate 55
over the last couple of hours, but no significant deep convection.
We're not done with thunderstorms for the night by any means,
though. Storms near the frontal boundary will likely move into
northwest sections of the area around midnight or so, likely
passing east of the area before sunrise Wednesday. Shear profiles
at that point won't be nearly as strong as they had been during
the afternoon hours, but with more than sufficient instability, a
severe weather and heavy rainfall threat continues overnight.

With a Flood Watch already in effect, and at least some threat of
heavy rainfall, won't get in a hurry to cancel the watch.

Will make adjustments to hourly temperatures and dew points to fit
current trends, but with the main remaining threat much later in
the night, no significant changes to products are imminent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Biggest forecast concerns outside of this afternoon's round of
severe thunderstorms will be a secondary round of showers and
thunderstorms in the overnight hours where the cold front proper
passes through the area. Current timing has it approximately in
the 3 AM to 7 AM range with CAM guidance showing a broken line of
showers of storms sweeping from the northwest to the southeast
into the coastal waters. The storms overnight won't have as much
of the dynamics that the storms earlier today had access to, but
still can't rule out any isolated damaging winds, hail or
possibly a tornado.

Heavy rainfall is also a concern especially as the line congeals
together. PW values are high for this time of year (LIX last
sounding had around 1.5 in which is right at the 90% moving
average). Any thunderstorms will be highly efficient rainmakers
overnight. The storms do look to be progressive but a few areas
could easily pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain.

In addition to all the other threats there is a small window of
stronger non convective/gradient winds possible as strong winds
aloft could mix down to the surface now through later tonight.
Based on observations and the potential time frame (the best
mixing would happen after peak heating), current thinking is the
chances of this happening will be slim and relatively isolated. So
because of this, decided against a wind advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Starting Thursday, the weather is much more benign as high
pressure builds in from the Gulf of Mexico. Dry and warmer
conditions are expected with possibly a slight chance of
precipitation on Saturday with a subtle shortwave from the north
pushing in. Otherwise the next chance of rain falls just outside
of the tail end of this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Most terminals reporting IFR or lower conditions, but there are a
few with MVFR ceilings (KBTR/KMCB). Have tried to focus TSRA in
2-3 hour window just before frontal passage. The 06z TAF package
will continue to refine the timing. Direct impacts will be IFR or
lower conditions. Wind gusts in excess of 25 knots will be likely
at most or all terminals, both with the TSRA and post- frontal.
Post frontal improvement to VFR likely to occur during the late
morning hours on Wednesday from west to east.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain southerly through tonight before swapping to
strong northerly winds as a strong cold front pushing through the
area into the coastal waters. A small craft advisory will come
into effect tonight and will remain in effect through Thursday
morning for the tidal lakes/sounds and through the afternoon for
everywhere else. Winds will then begin shift to easterly and
slowly relax in speed. There may be a small window this weekend
where small craft exercise caution may be needed in the eastern
coastal waters but that is currently low in confidence. -BL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  64  35  60 /  90  10   0   0
BTR  60  69  38  63 /  80  10   0   0
ASD  63  73  37  64 /  90  30   0   0
MSY  65  72  46  61 / 100  30   0   0
GPT  66  73  41  63 /  90  40   0   0
PQL  65  74  39  62 /  90  50   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ039-076-079-080.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ071-077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...BL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             6 SSE SMITHDALE         31.26N 90.64W
11/29/2022  E1.75 INCH       AMITE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR
            THE THOMPSON COMMUNITY.

&&

JFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W SMITHDALE           31.35N 90.79W
11/29/2022                   AMITE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE AMITE AND
            FRANKLIN COS LINE ALONG HWY 567.

&&

JFL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
811 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

MSZ069-300300-
Amite MS-
811 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Amite County through
900 PM CST...

At 811 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gloster, or 9 miles west of Liberty, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Gloster and Smithdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3117 9055 3100 9092 3113 9106 3119 9106
      3135 9080 3135 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 238DEG 37KT 3112 9095

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Frye