River Flood Warning 50, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
314 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

Ongoing convection will begin to settle down at or shortly after
sunrise this morning as a front moves through the region. A
drier/cooler northerly wind will develop across the region today
behind the departing storm system. Temperatures will be a bit of a
challenge today depending on cloud cover/insolation and CAA.
Right now, a plume of low stratus is moving eastward across SE LA
toward our region. If this doesn't mix out today, temps could be a
bit cooler than forecast. However, guidance indicates this not
being the case so we will at least show some diurnal curve during
the second half of the afternoon.

Much cooler tonight across the forecast area with interior south
Mississippi cooling off into the lower and middle 30s. Elsewhere,
upper 30s to lower 40s expected respectively as the cold Canadian
airmass continues to advect into the region. Tonight shouldn't be
the best of radiational cooling nights across the region as winds
remain somewhat elevated so at least it doesn't get as cold as it
would otherwise.

Thursday will remain on the seasonably cool side with temperatures
generally around 60 during peak heating. Outside of a mostly clear
day and generally light northeasterly winds, not much to really
discuss across the land based zones. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

The upper level pattern becomes a bit more zonal/progressive going
into late week as a H5 ridge takes shape across the southern Gulf
of Mexico. At the surface, a return flow begins to develop as the
surface high begins to exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Thursday night
and into Friday. With the progressive upper levels and subtle
ridging over our region along with the low level return flow, a
warming trend will quickly take place across the region to end
the workweek and start the upcoming weekend.

By Saturday, eyes shift upstream again as a weak Pacific cold
front moves generally toward our region. Outside of a modest
increase in POPs on Saturday, not much to discuss with this
feature either including temperatures, which will not change much
considering this is (again) a front originating from a Pacific
airmass.

Through the remainder of the forecast period, the aforementioned
H5 ridge is forecast to remain across the Southern Gulf with again
a more progressive flow remaining locked in over our region. This
should also promote generally above average temperatures with
heights and thicknesses (in closer proximity to the upper ridge)
to be a bit on the higher side. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Several terminals with MVFR ceilings, with remainder at IFR or
lower. Actual cold front is only just now entering northwest
Louisiana, but main line of convective concern is approaching KMCB
and KBTR at forecast issuance time. To this point of the evening,
while gradient wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots have been occurring
on occasion, haven't really seen strong convective wind gusts.
TSRA will move across all terminals over the next 6-8 hours and
will go with a 2 hour TEMPO window and IFR or lower conditions to
address those restrictions. Will see a wind shift to the west
behind the convection, and then to the northwest several hours
later with the actual frontal passage. Ceilings and visibilities
will rapidly improve to VFR behind the frontal passage, with no
ceiling or visibility restrictions from 18z Wednesday through
Thursday. Northerly wind gusts to 25 to 30 knots will be common
behind the front for much of the day, especially at KNEW and KMSY,
potentially a little higher at KNEW. Winds will diminish with
sunset at most terminals except the New Orleans ones. (RW)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

A strong northerly flow will develop today behind the departing
storm system. As the pressure gradient increases, expect hazardous
marine conditions to develop across the local waters. Winds will
gradually transition to a more northeast direction later tonight
before some gradual improvement is expected during the day on
Thursday. High pressure moves into the region through the end of
the workweek. Pressure gradient may remain somewhat tight across
the outer waters with perhaps cautionary headlines needed until
this upcoming weekend. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  34  59  40 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  68  37  63  45 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  72  36  64  43 /  30   0   0   0
MSY  71  45  61  52 /  30   0   0   0
GPT  72  39  62  47 /  40   0   0   0
PQL  72  38  61  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CST this morning for LAZ039-076-079-080.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CST this morning for MSZ071-077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF

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