Tornado Warning 39, NWS Lake Charles, LA

847 
WWUS54 KLCH 140716
SVSLCH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
116 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

LAC009-079-140726-
/O.CAN.KLCH.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-221214T0730Z/
Rapides LA-Avoyelles LA-
116 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RAPIDES AND NORTHWESTERN
AVOYELLES PARISHES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for central
Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3138 9212 3136 9208 3135 9207 3134 9209
      3133 9208 3134 9203 3133 9202 3132 9200
      3131 9201 3130 9200 3129 9201 3130 9201
      3128 9202 3122 9215 3133 9222 3140 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 232DEG 33KT 3137 9203 

$$

Calhoun

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1131 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Heavy Rainfall...
Issued at 1022 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

With line segments already forming in southeast Texas and outside
the current flood watch, thought it was prudent to extend the
flood watch back to the west. Rainfall rates up to 2 inches per
hour will be possible along these line segments with total
rainfall amounts of 4 plus inches.

The Flood Watch in southeast Texas and for Vernon and Beauregard
Parishes in Louisiana will be through noon Wednesday.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the forecast area now fully in
the warm sector with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Water vapor shows a deep cutoff low spinning over the cntl Plains
with a trof digging into nrn Mexico. A lead disturbance withing
the deep swrly flow aloft is noted approaching the area and
working in concert with the good moisture/increasing instability
to produce an increasing coverage of showers/storms this
afternoon, mainly over the wrn 1/2 of the forecast area at this
time.

Not sure what else to add as far the now ongoing weather event
that's been advertised for days goes. 12z KLCH sounding showed
the ingredients in place for strong/severe convection...and storms
have begun percolating as expected. A few cells so far have
displayed reasonable mid-level rotation and this threat will
likely only grow as we move out of the afternoon and into the
evening...thus SPC issued a Tornado Watch earlier for portions of
our nrn zones, valid til 04z/22L.

The heavy rain threat also persists given the copious/deep
moisture present/forecast. The initial round of convection ahead
of a sfc cold front will continue pushing into the forecast area
tonight, then stall as an area of low pressure develops along the
boundary somewhere in the vicinity of swrn LA. The location of
this stall will be critical in where any potential flooding may
develop, with our sern zones looking most likely at the moment
given the deep onshore fetch and most influence of the low. The
inherited Flash Flood Watch continues to have this covered well,
thus no changes were made this afternoon.

As the next shortwave sweeps around the Plains low, it will pull
the sfc feature/frontal boundary ewd and out of the forecast area
through the day tomorrow...with showers/storms expected to end
from west to east through the afternoon. With the sern zones
remaining in the warm sector and forecast soundings continuing to
indicate good potential for severe weather, SPC has maintained
this area in a Slight Risk for tomorrow.

Once the precip moves out tomorrow, dry but cooler conditions look
to prevail for the remainder of the forecast period. With the trof
axis gradually pushing ewd, a nwrly flow aloft will develop over
the region. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will build over the
region. As good CAA sets up, temps tomorrow night are progged to
fall to the 40 to 45 range over the bulk of the forecast
area...with Thursday highs topping out around 60. Then by Thursday
night as the core of the high begins settling overhead and good
radiating conditions develop, lows Thursday night should run a few
degrees cooler with readings ranging from the mid 30s far nrn
zones to lower 40s closer to the coast.

Stay weather aware tonight!
25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Generally quiet albeit cool conditions in place as the long term
period gets underway. The deep upper low that brought the potent
storms early in the week will still be spinning over the upper
midwest as it slowly moves toward the Great Lakes. Beneath this low,
broad cyclonic flow will encompass much of the eastern CONUS, with a
rather progressive zonal flow over the NW Gulf coast.

At the surface, a high pressure ridge will be building from the W-NW
into the area, providing northerly low level winds along with a much
cooler airmass. After several days of above normal temperatures last
week and early this week, a period of below to near normal
temperatures is expected. Friday will likely be the best day of the
period weatherwise, with just some thin high clouds over the region
and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Clouds will gradually thicken and lower from Friday night into
Saturday as a shortwave moves into the area. Low pressure will
develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico while the surface high
settles over TX. The best low level forcing is expected to be over
the Gulf of Mexico and this is where most of the deeper convection
will be focused, but overrunning moisture and lift provided by the
shortwave will bring some low rain chances Saturday into Saturday
night.

Conditions will improve by Sunday as the shortwave exits to the east
and the surface high shifts east across the region. A little bit of
sun will be possible during the day, as thin cirrus streams over the
region. By Sunday night however, clouds will again increase as
another fast-moving shortwave approaches the region. This shortwave
appears to be a little stronger, with a stronger surface low progged
to develop near the middle to lower TX coast. Moisture and lift
associated with these features will bring increasing rain chances
back over the area Sunday night into Monday. Global models show some
differences in the evolution and timing of this system as it moves
east early next week, but a general consensus suggests precip
chances will be decreasing by midweek. At this time, temperatures
are expected to stay warm enough to preclude any type of wintry
precip development with this system.

Temperatures through the period will stay near to below normal.
High temperatures each afternoon will be generally in the 50s, with
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s most mornings. The chilliest
morning looks to be Sunday, with lows falling to the lower 30s
across central LA to upper 30s along the I-10 corridor.
A few of the normally cooler spots could see a light freeze.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are being reported at the terminals
currently. During the overnight scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to increase with ceilings lowering to MVFR levels as
a storm system begins to move eastward toward the forecast area.
The showers and thunderstorms are expected to form into line
segments with a possible squall line affecting the terminals
late tonight and early Wednesday morning. IFR conditions expected
as the squall line moves through with gusty winds. This line will
slow before morning hours waiting for a cold front to move across
during Wednesday afternoon when conditions will finally return to
VFR.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Extended the inherited SCA for the coastal waters through tomorrow
afternoon as elevated srly flow should linger through tonight,
then shift offshore and increase behind the frontal passage
tomorrow.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  67  41  62 /  80  80   0   0
LCH  61  68  42  62 /  80  80   0   0
LFT  67  74  45  64 /  80  90   0   0
BPT  60  68  42  65 /  80  70   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for LAZ027-030.

     Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for LAZ028-029-031>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
305 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

LAZ027-030-TXZ180-259>262-142115-
Vernon-Beauregard-Tyler-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-
Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
305 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 583 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

A strong storm system aloft with an associated surface cold front
will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some storms could produce severe weather, and SPC has
outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for portions of west
central and central LA, and Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for the
remainder of the area. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are the
likeliest threats, but marginal severe hail is also possible. Heavy
rains leading to localized flooding will also be possible, and WPC
has outlined much of Louisiana in a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall (level 2 out of 4), with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4)
for southeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Much colder air will move into the area behind this strong system,
and temperatures could fall to near freezing at night across central
Louisiana by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ029-031>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-142115-
Avoyelles-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-
Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-
Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-East Cameron-
305 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana and southwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

A strong storm system aloft with an associated surface cold front
will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some storms could produce severe weather, and SPC has
outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for portions of west
central and central LA, and Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for the
remainder of the area. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are the
likeliest threats, but marginal severe hail is also possible. Heavy
rains leading to localized flooding will also be possible, and WPC
has outlined much of Louisiana in a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall (level 2 out of 4), with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4)
for southeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Much colder air will move into the area behind this strong system,
and temperatures could fall to near freezing at night across central
Louisiana by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TXZ201-215-216-142115-
Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-
305 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A strong storm system aloft with an associated surface cold front
will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some storms could produce severe weather, and SPC has
outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for portions of west
central and central LA, and Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for the
remainder of the area. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are the
likeliest threats, but marginal severe hail is also possible. Heavy
rains leading to localized flooding will also be possible, and WPC
has outlined much of Louisiana in a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall (level 2 out of 4), with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4)
for southeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Much colder air will move into the area behind this strong system,
and temperatures could fall to near freezing at night across central
Louisiana by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ028-142115-
Rapides-
305 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 583 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flood Watch.

A strong storm system aloft with an associated surface cold front
will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some storms could produce severe weather, and SPC has
outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for portions of west
central and central LA, and Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for the
remainder of the area. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are the
likeliest threats, but marginal severe hail is also possible. Heavy
rains leading to localized flooding will also be possible, and WPC
has outlined much of Louisiana in a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall (level 2 out of 4), with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4)
for southeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Much colder air will move into the area behind this strong system,
and temperatures could fall to near freezing at night across central
Louisiana by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-142115-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
305 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Tuesday into Wednesday, an approaching strong storm system aloft
with an associated surface cold front will lead to widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Storms could be strong with gusty winds
and waterspouts possible. Heavy rainfall reducing visibility to less
than one mile will also be possible in some of the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Southerly winds will strengthen ahead of a cold front on Tuesday,
possibly requiring issuance of Exercise Caution or Advisory
headlines. Strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front
on Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisories likely required.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-142115-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
305 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal lakes and bays of
the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Tuesday into Wednesday, an approaching strong storm system aloft
with an associated surface cold front will lead to widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Storms could be strong with gusty winds
and waterspouts possible. Heavy rainfall reducing visibility to less
than one mile will also be possible in some of the storms. Meanwhile,
slightly elevated winds will linger through tonight...small craft
should exercise caution.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Southerly winds will strengthen ahead of a cold front on Tuesday,
possibly requiring issuance of Exercise Caution or Advisory
headlines. Strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front
on Wednesday, with Small Craft Advisories likely required.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
921 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

TXZ259-260-140345-
Northern Newton TX-Northern Jasper TX-
921 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Newton
and northeastern Jasper Counties through 945 PM CST...

At 921 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ebenezer, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Browndell, Harrisburg, Mayflower, Farrsville and Sam Rayburn
Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for southeastern
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 9362 3092 9386 3083 9415 3091 9421
      3093 9420 3094 9421 3094 9423 3097 9424
      3114 9400 3116 9391 3117 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 225DEG 27KT 3094 9415

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
930 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

LAZ041-140400-
Calcasieu LA-
930 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Calcasieu
Parish through 1000 PM CST...

At 930 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Carlyss, or 10 miles west of Grand Lake, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Sulphur, Westlake, Moss Bluff, Carlyss and Buhler.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 18 and 37.
 Interstate 210 between mile markers 1 and 12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3008 9350 3040 9334 3040 9333 3026 9309
      3005 9337 3005 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 215DEG 26KT 3008 9343

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1202 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

LAZ028-140630-
Rapides LA-
1202 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rapides
Parish through 1230 AM CST...

At 1202 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holloway, or 8 miles east of Pineville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Rapides Parish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for central
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 9216 3146 9217 3145 9216 3141 9215
      3139 9212 3138 9212 3136 9208 3130 9216
      3133 9219 3133 9222 3132 9223 3127 9223
      3126 9230 3135 9242 3146 9232 3148 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 220DEG 35KT 3136 9227

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1214 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

LAZ028-140645-
Rapides LA-
1214 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Rapides
Parish through 1245 AM CST...

At 1214 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glenmora, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Glenmora, Cheneyville, Lecompte, Woodworth, Forest Hill and Mcnary.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 59 and 73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for central
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 9222 3102 9222 3099 9236 3100 9239
      3099 9241 3098 9242 3094 9256 3103 9262
      3125 9237
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 232DEG 26KT 3101 9253

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1241 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

LAZ027-140715-
Vernon LA-
1241 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Vernon
Parish through 115 AM CST...

At 1241 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fullerton to 7 miles west of Cravens.
Movement was east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lacamp, Cravens, Leander and Fullerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for west central
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3116 9283 3107 9283 3089 9306 3091 9320
      3117 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 248DEG 5KT 3107 9296 3093 9315

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1254 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

LAZ031-041-042-140730-
Calcasieu LA-Jefferson Davis LA-Allen LA-
1254 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Jefferson Davis, northeastern Calcasieu and southwestern Allen
Parishes through 130 AM CST...

At 1253 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Topsy, or near Moss Bluff, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kinder, Reeves, Moss Bluff, Topsy, Leblanc and Buller.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CST for southwestern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9281 3027 9315 3029 9324 3040 9317
      3040 9313 3046 9313 3059 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 215DEG 26KT 3035 9313

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Calhoun