Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
537 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Low pressure is currently moving across the central plains while
the trailing cold front stretches into northern TX. A ridge is
just off the mid Atlantic coast. Aloft, moisture is streaming
north across TX into the upper MS Valley ahead of an upper
disturbance that is also moving into the plains. Locally, the
pressure gradient between the plains low and Atlantic ridge is
fairly tight producing gusty winds that are advecting in gulf
moisture which has dramatically increased over the past couple of
days. A modest coverage of showers and a few storms have been
streaming across SE TX today, but coverage is currently
increasing.

Tonight the coverage of convection will continue to increase as
the cold front and short wave draw closer. Modest instability and
shear, but ample moisture will provide the threat of an isolated
severe storm and marginal to slight flash flood potential. While
the ground is somewhat saturated due to rains a couple weeks ago,
enough drainage has occurred to lessen the flash flood risk.
Overall amounts are forecast to be between 1 and 3" area wide
through Friday with higher amounts possible. As always, localized
flooding may occur in urban areas where or if storms train.

Convection will gradually exit from west to east through Friday
with drier weather expected Saturday and for the New Year's Eve
festivities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

The first day of the new year will start off quiet. Nearly zonal
flow aloft with a deepening pacific trough over the western CONUS.
Going into the end of the day, flow aloft will become southwesterly
as the trough and attached front moves eastward. At the surface, the
pressure gradient will tighten up leading to elevated and gusty
southerly flow. This will advect a plume of warm and moist air over
the region ahead of the front.

Forecast PWATS are in the 1.5-1.8 range which is clear above the
climo 90th percentile of 1.33 inches and closer to the daily max of
1.72 inches. Additionally, forecast soundings are showing some
elevated parameters for severe weather. Mainly CAPE and lapse rates.
Shear continues to look unimpressive, however better than model runs
yesterday. SPC has maintained the risk area over our northern
Parishes and extended it west over our northern Counties. In
addition to this, WPC has outlined all save lower Acadiana / the
Atchafalaya Basin in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Flooding
appears to be the primary threat with QPF totals in the 2-3 inch
range Monday into Tuesday.

PoPs will linger post frontal passage however they will be isolated
with not as much moisture to work with. A weaker secondary cold
front is set to move through Wednesday into Thursday which will
clear out PoPs, bringing cooler and drier air.

Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above climatological norms ahead
of the first front with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. In addition to that, it will be quite humid with
dewpoints matching or falling a few degrees below air temps. The
front will help bring temps down near normal in the 60s for highs
and 40s for lows.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Convection has been dominating Texas counties over the last few
hours. This trend will continue with a spreading eastward of
showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure center nears. Noted
with convective cells has been strong downbursting winds and heavy
rains. Later tonight, remaining discrete cells will congeal into a
squall line feature that will slide eastward throughout the early
morning hours, with showers to follow on northerly winds in the
afternoon.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  70  54  72 /  90  90  20   0
LCH  61  71  53  69 /  90  70  10   0
LFT  64  72  58  73 /  90 100  20   0
BPT  61  72  52  71 /  90  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ430-432-450.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ435-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...11

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