Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1151 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 955 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are lifting to the northeast at this
time as the system gradually moves further to the east. Storms
appear to be loosing strength with this next surge although a
line of storms along the sfc boundary currently in cntrl Texas is
producing numerous cloud to lightning strikes and remains an
issue for flooding and marginal severe wx prior to the frontal
passage on Friday.

An elongated rainfall path with the heaviest rainfall totals this
eve extends from Hardin into Tyler and and Jasper counties where
radar is indicating about three to four inches has fallen. More
rains are expected thru sr as additional storms look to push
through and into southwestern Louisiana. Storms tapering off
during late morning into the afternoon. Locations in southeast
Texas will continue to be monitored for rains and flooding issues
until then.

Latest sounding fm KLCH has CAPE around 1600 j/kg... precip water
around 1.2 inches but this has been increasing... with SRH at 171
from sfc- 1km. The upper lvl trof is pushing towards the region
with exiting jet sweeping across the northwest gulf region. Storm
support looks to draw to a close by the late morning into the
early afternoon hours with FROPA along the TX/LA border around the
noon hour. The current zones are on track and no updates are
planned at this time. Drier air pushes in during the afternoon
into the eve hours. Cooler air to makes it's presents known
Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

The first day of the new year will start off quiet. Nearly zonal
flow aloft with a deepening pacific trough over the western CONUS.
Going into the end of the day, flow aloft will become southwesterly
as the trough and attached front moves eastward. At the surface, the
pressure gradient will tighten up leading to elevated and gusty
southerly flow. This will advect a plume of warm and moist air over
the region ahead of the front.

Forecast PWATS are in the 1.5-1.8 range which is clear above the
climo 90th percentile of 1.33 inches and closer to the daily max of
1.72 inches. Additionally, forecast soundings are showing some
elevated parameters for severe weather. Mainly CAPE and lapse rates.
Shear continues to look unimpressive, however better than model runs
yesterday. SPC has maintained the risk area over our northern
Parishes and extended it west over our northern Counties. In
addition to this, WPC has outlined all save lower Acadiana / the
Atchafalaya Basin in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Flooding
appears to be the primary threat with QPF totals in the 2-3 inch
range Monday into Tuesday.

PoPs will linger post frontal passage however they will be
isolated with not as much moisture to work with. A weaker
secondary cold front is set to move through Wednesday into
Thursday which will clear out PoPs, bringing cooler and drier air.

Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above climatological norms ahead
of the first front with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the
mid 50s to mid 60s. In addition to that, it will be quite humid with
dewpoints matching or falling a few degrees below air temps. The
front will help bring temps down near normal in the 60s for highs
and 40s for lows.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

A broken line of showers and a few stronger thunderstorms is
making its way into southwest Louisiana. Most notably are two
segments, a northern segment nearing AEX and a southern one
nearing BPT. Expect an increase in convective coverage from north
to south over the next few hours as storms congeal into a
widespread rain mass with a squall line- like feature embedded
within that will slowly slide eastward overnight and tomorrow.
Best estimate of time of arrival to terminals has been noted in
TAFs. Until the line arrives, gradient winds will remain elevated
from the southeast, with occasionally higher gusts. Showers will
taper from west to east during the morning hours with LFT and ARA
the last to see thunderstorm activity in the early afternoon. In
the wake of the boundary passage, winds will calm significantly
and become variable, but generally will be southwesterly. The
southwest fetch will result in a quick return of low level
moisture, lowered ceilings and potentially nocturnal ground fog at
coastal terminals.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

More storms are moving into the western coastal waters and
southeast Texas ahead of the next frontal system. Showers and
thunderstorms through the overnight hours and late morning hours
before drawing to a close. Areas of fog along the coast along with
a Small Craft Advisory through the late morning. Winds will begin
to settle during the late morning early afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  62  70  54  72 /  90  90  20   0
LCH  61  71  53  69 /  90  70  10   0
LFT  64  72  58  73 /  90 100  20   0
BPT  61  72  52  71 /  90  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-450.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ435-452-455.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ470-472-475.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
327 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

LAZ027>032-TXZ180-201-259>262-302130-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-Tyler-Hardin-
Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
327 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, southwest
Louisiana, west central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight as a
band of convection moves through the area. There is a Marginal Risk
for severe weather, from this through tonight, across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, west of an Alexandria to Pecan Island
line. The primary threats will be isolated damaging wind gusts and
isolated spin-up tornadoes.

There is also the potential for heavy rainfall overnight, with a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across southeast Texas into much
of central and southwest Louisiana that could lead to flooding of
urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An ongoing band of showers and storms will be progressing east
across our Louisiana Parishes Friday morning. This band of storms
will be capable of producing strong to severe weather as well as
heavy rainfall. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather for
portions of south central Louisiana, with isolated damaging wind
gusts and isolated weak spin-up tornadoes the main threats. There is
also a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across central and south
central Louisiana that could lead to flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas.

The threat for severe weather and flooding should come to an end
Friday afternoon.

Another strong storm system will move into the area by Monday into
Tuesday. This system could bring the potential for severe weather as
well as heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ215-216-302130-
St. Landry-Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-
Upper St. Martin-Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-
West Cameron-East Cameron-Jefferson-Orange-
327 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight as a
band of convection moves through the area. There is a Marginal Risk
for severe weather, from this through tonight, across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, west of an Alexandria to Pecan Island
line. The primary threats will be isolated damaging wind gusts and
isolated spin-up tornadoes.

There is also the potential for heavy rainfall overnight, with a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across southeast Texas into much
of central and southwest Louisiana that could lead to flooding of
urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An ongoing band of showers and storms will be progressing east
across
our Louisiana Parishes Friday morning. This band of storms will be
capable of producing strong to severe weather as well as heavy
rainfall. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather for portions
of
south central Louisiana, with isolated damaging wind gusts and
isolated weak spin-up tornadoes the main threats. There is also a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across central and south central
Louisiana that could lead to flooding of urban and poor drainage
areas.

The threat for severe weather and flooding should come to an end
Friday afternoon.

Another strong storm system will move into the area by Monday into
Tuesday. This system could bring the potential for severe weather as
well as heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ470-472-475-302130-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
from 20 to 60 NM-
327 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight as a
band of convection moves through the area. There is a Marginal Risk
for severe weather, from this through tonight, across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, west of an Alexandria to Pecan Island
line. The primary threats will be isolated damaging wind gusts and
isolated spin-up tornadoes.

There is also the potential for heavy rainfall overnight, with a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across southeast Texas into much
of central and southwest Louisiana that could lead to flooding of
urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Small craft advisory conditions will continue into Friday morning.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning
into early Friday afternoon. Some storms will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall that could reduce visibilities to less than
one mile. In addition, strong gusty winds and isolated waterspouts
will be possible.

The return of warm and moist air over the much cooler shelf waters
will support the potential for periods of marine fog on Friday, and
again from Sunday into early next week. Dense Fog Advisories may
become necessary during this time.

Showers and storms will increase again early next week, and there
will be the potential for some strong to severe storms as well as
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-450-302130-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
327 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight as a
band of convection moves through the area. Some storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall that could reduce visibilities to
less than one mile. In addition, strong gusty winds and isolated
waterspouts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning.
Some storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could
reduce visibilities to less than one mile. In addition, strong gusty
winds and isolated waterspouts will be possible.

The return of warm and moist air over the much cooler shelf waters
will support the potential for periods of marine fog on Friday, and
again from Sunday into early next week. Dense Fog Advisories may
become necessary during this time.

Showers and storms will increase again early next week, and there
will be the potential for some strong to severe storms as well as
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ435-452-455-302130-
Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-
327 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Gulf of Mexico and the
coastal lakes and bays of the Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight as a
band of convection moves through the area. Some storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall that could reduce visibilities to
less than one mile. In addition, strong gusty winds and isolated
waterspouts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Dense Fog Advisory.

A band of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning.
Some storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could
reduce visibilities to less than one mile. In addition, strong gusty
winds and isolated waterspouts will be possible.

The return of warm and moist air over the much cooler shelf waters
will support the potential for periods of marine fog on Friday, and
again from Sunday into early next week. Dense Fog Advisories may
become necessary during this time.

Showers and storms will increase again early next week, and there
will be the potential for some strong to severe storms as well as
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1223 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

TXZ215-300700-
Jefferson TX-
1223 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jefferson
County through 100 AM CST...

At 1223 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stowell, or 11 miles south of Hamshire, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Hamshire, Fannett, La Belle, Port
Acres, Southeast Texas Regional Airport, Stowell and Winnie.

This includes Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 850 and
840.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2981 9436 3007 9416 2990 9392 2961 9423
      2956 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 218DEG 34KT 2970 9432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Jones

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
100 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

TXZ215-300730-
Jefferson TX-
100 AM CST Fri Dec 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Jefferson County through 130 AM CST...

At 100 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hamshire, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Hamshire, Fannett, La Belle,
Southeast Texas Regional Airport, Stowell and Winnie.

This includes Interstate 10 in Texas between mile markers 846 and
833.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9427 2996 9400 2973 9427 2974 9436
      2983 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 205DEG 20KT 2979 9427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Jones

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
207 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 AM     HAIL             2 SE BEAUMONT           30.07N 94.12W
12/30/2022  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR BEAUMONT.

&&

DONALD.JONES

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