Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1126 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

A shortwave is progressing northeastward across northern CO and WY
late this morning per WV imagery. Large scale ascent ahead of this
feature will overspread the western High Plains this afternoon and
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop. The focus for development
will first be off the higher terrain across eastern WY, and then
late this afternoon and early evening along a sharpening inverted
trough that will extend northeastward across western NE from a
deepening surface low across eastern CO. Southeast low-level flow
will increase this afternoon across the Sandhills into
southwest/central NE to the east of the inverted trough. This will
help maintain dew points right around 60F, and as heating continues
expect the boundary layer to become moderately unstable. Shear is
sponger today than days past and somewhat better storm organization
is expected this evening. The environment would support supercell
structures, but sounding profiles indicate storms will likely be
outflow dominate and may have a difficult time maintaining inflow
for a sustained period. This would tend to favor strong (possibly
severe) wind gusts as the main hazard. Cannot rule out hail in a
cell that could maintain itself for a longer period of time, but
overall thinking is any severe should mostly be a wind threat. Any
severe may be brief due to the expected outflow dominated nature of
the storms. Another concern would be potential for heavy downpours
of rain. PWATS ahead of any storm activity should be around
1"...which is about 0.25" above average for this tome of year.
Storms will be progressive though and overall flooding concerns are
low.

As the shortwave tracks into the Northern Plains during the day
Saturday...a cold front will move southeast through the area with
winds shifting to the north. Low-level flow does gradually shift
easterly across western NE by late Saturday afternoon/evening. This
creates a weak upslope environment and may support a few storms
moving eastward off the higher terrain into northwest NE Saturday
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

The heat will be on once again in the extended. Upper level ridging
will build northward across the Southern Plains the first of next
week. Seeing a signal for potential 100F degree heat across
portions of OK/KS and extending northward into southern NE Monday
and especially Tuesday. Mid to late week still appears to cool down
considerably. A strong shortwave will drop across the Northern
Plains/Great Lakes region, and send a strong Canadian cold front
southward through the area. Highs Thursday likely to remain in the
60s behind the front. Some showers are possible during this
timeframe but widespread organized precipitation is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Isolated showers and thunderstorms pushed through the region this
evening and are now east of both terminals. Limited aviation
concerns are expected through the remainder of the TAF period.
Mostly cloudy conditions will gradually give way to scattered
ceilings by mid-morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
321 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 /221 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska through the late evening hours. A few storms may be severe
and capable of producing strong winds and frequent lightning. Hail
and heavy downpours are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible again Saturday evening and night. The
potential for severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report observed severe weather or storm damage to the National
Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1001 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ038-059-170345-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-
1001 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Lincoln
and southern Custer Counties through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Callaway, or 25 miles southeast of Stapleton, moving
east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Callaway around 1015 PM CDT.
  Broken Bow around 1030 PM CDT.
  Berwyn around 1035 PM CDT.
  Weissert around 1040 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Westerville, Buckeye,
Etna, Pressey State Wildlife Management Area, Milldale, Finchville
and Lodi.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 85 and 100.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 269 and 300.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 271 and 304.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and southwestern Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 10034 4158 9947 4124 9926 4104 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 250DEG 52KT 4122 10017

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1027 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 SSW CALLAWAY         41.13N 100.05W
09/16/2022  M53 MPH          CUSTER             NE   MESONET

&&

BROWN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1042 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ038-170445-
Custer NE-
1042 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Custer
County through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1042 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oconto, or 14 miles south of Broken Bow, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Callaway, Ansley, Mason City, Oconto, Berwyn, Weissert,
Westerville, Arcadia Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management Area,
Burr Oak, Gavin Siding, Lodi, Intersection of Highway 183 and Cumro
Road, Buckeye, Block Hill Basin, Pressey State Wildlife Management
Area and Cumro.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 73 and 104.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 275 and 307.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 300 and 308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 10010 4134 10004 4154 9921 4105 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 263DEG 35KT 4120 9967

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kulik

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1131 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ037-038-059-170530-
Custer NE-Lincoln NE-Logan NE-
1131 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Lincoln,
southeastern Logan and southwestern Custer Counties through 1230 AM
CDT...

At 1130 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles south of Gandy to near North Platte
Airport to near Hershey. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
North Platte, Hershey, Arnold, Maxwell, Lake Maloney State Recreation
Area, North Platte Airport, Keith, Etna, Finchville, Birdwood and
Lodi.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 246 and 252.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 1 and 6.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 166 and 189.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 75 and 99.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 10100 4145 10016 4120 9982 4099 10085
      4105 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 250DEG 32KT 4130 10042 4116 10062 4114 10094

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kulik

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