Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

A shortwave is progressing northeastward across northern CO and WY
late this morning per WV imagery. Large scale ascent ahead of this
feature will overspread the western High Plains this afternoon and
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop. The focus for development
will first be off the higher terrain across eastern WY, and then
late this afternoon and early evening along a sharpening inverted
trough that will extend northeastward across western NE from a
deepening surface low across eastern CO. Southeast low-level flow
will increase this afternoon across the Sandhills into
southwest/central NE to the east of the inverted trough. This will
help maintain dew points right around 60F, and as heating continues
expect the boundary layer to become moderately unstable. Shear is
sponger today than days past and somewhat better storm organization
is expected this evening. The environment would support supercell
structures, but sounding profiles indicate storms will likely be
outflow dominate and may have a difficult time maintaining inflow
for a sustained period. This would tend to favor strong (possibly
severe) wind gusts as the main hazard. Cannot rule out hail in a
cell that could maintain itself for a longer period of time, but
overall thinking is any severe should mostly be a wind threat. Any
severe may be brief due to the expected outflow dominated nature of
the storms. Another concern would be potential for heavy downpours
of rain. PWATS ahead of any storm activity should be around
1"...which is about 0.25" above average for this tome of year.
Storms will be progressive though and overall flooding concerns are
low.

As the shortwave tracks into the Northern Plains during the day
Saturday...a cold front will move southeast through the area with
winds shifting to the north. Low-level flow does gradually shift
easterly across western NE by late Saturday afternoon/evening. This
creates a weak upslope environment and may support a few storms
moving eastward off the higher terrain into northwest NE Saturday
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

The heat will be on once again in the extended. Upper level ridging
will build northward across the Southern Plains the first of next
week. Seeing a signal for potential 100F degree heat across
portions of OK/KS and extending northward into southern NE Monday
and especially Tuesday. Mid to late week still appears to cool down
considerably. A strong shortwave will drop across the Northern
Plains/Great Lakes region, and send a strong Canadian cold front
southward through the area. Highs Thursday likely to remain in the
60s behind the front. Some showers are possible during this
timeframe but widespread organized precipitation is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Thunderstorms are their respective hazards are the primary
aviation weather concern through tonight. Scattered TSRA coverage
will grow somewhat as activity spreads east across the forecast
area, possibly affecting all terminals. Erratic wind gusts 30+
kts, small hail, visby reductions are all possible. Activity
should dissipate or move east out of the area by 17/09z. Fog may
develop in its wake, especially in river valleys and low areas,
including KLBF. Toward mid-morning, west winds may become gusty
for the northern terminals (KVTN).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
321 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 /221 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska through the late evening hours. A few storms may be severe
and capable of producing strong winds and frequent lightning. Hail
and heavy downpours are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible again Saturday evening and night. The
potential for severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report observed severe weather or storm damage to the National
Weather Service.

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