Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

A shortwave is progressing northeastward across northern CO and WY
late this morning per WV imagery. Large scale ascent ahead of this
feature will overspread the western High Plains this afternoon and
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop. The focus for development
will first be off the higher terrain across eastern WY, and then
late this afternoon and early evening along a sharpening inverted
trough that will extend northeastward across western NE from a
deepening surface low across eastern CO. Southeast low-level flow
will increase this afternoon across the Sandhills into
southwest/central NE to the east of the inverted trough. This will
help maintain dew points right around 60F, and as heating continues
expect the boundary layer to become moderately unstable. Shear is
sponger today than days past and somewhat better storm organization
is expected this evening. The environment would support supercell
structures, but sounding profiles indicate storms will likely be
outflow dominate and may have a difficult time maintaining inflow
for a sustained period. This would tend to favor strong (possibly
severe) wind gusts as the main hazard. Cannot rule out hail in a
cell that could maintain itself for a longer period of time, but
overall thinking is any severe should mostly be a wind threat. Any
severe may be brief due to the expected outflow dominated nature of
the storms. Another concern would be potential for heavy downpours
of rain. PWATS ahead of any storm activity should be around
1"...which is about 0.25" above average for this tome of year.
Storms will be progressive though and overall flooding concerns are
low.

As the shortwave tracks into the Northern Plains during the day
Saturday...a cold front will move southeast through the area with
winds shifting to the north. Low-level flow does gradually shift
easterly across western NE by late Saturday afternoon/evening. This
creates a weak upslope environment and may support a few storms
moving eastward off the higher terrain into northwest NE Saturday
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

The heat will be on once again in the extended. Upper level ridging
will build northward across the Southern Plains the first of next
week. Seeing a signal for potential 100F degree heat across
portions of OK/KS and extending northward into southern NE Monday
and especially Tuesday. Mid to late week still appears to cool down
considerably. A strong shortwave will drop across the Northern
Plains/Great Lakes region, and send a strong Canadian cold front
southward through the area. Highs Thursday likely to remain in the
60s behind the front. Some showers are possible during this
timeframe but widespread organized precipitation is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Thunderstorms are their respective hazards are the primary
aviation weather concern through tonight. Scattered TSRA coverage
will grow somewhat as activity spreads east across the forecast
area, possibly affecting all terminals. Erratic wind gusts 30+
kts, small hail, visby reductions are all possible. Activity
should dissipate or move east out of the area by 17/09z. Fog may
develop in its wake, especially in river valleys and low areas,
including KLBF. Toward mid-morning, west winds may become gusty
for the northern terminals (KVTN).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
321 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 /221 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska through the late evening hours. A few storms may be severe
and capable of producing strong winds and frequent lightning. Hail
and heavy downpours are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible again Saturday evening and night. The
potential for severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report observed severe weather or storm damage to the National
Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ024-036-170000-
Hooker NE-McPherson NE-
615 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Hooker
and central McPherson Counties through 700 PM CDT/600 PM MDT/...

At 615 PM CDT/515 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 16 miles west of Tryon, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tryon, Flatts, Big Lamunyon Flats, Diamond Bar Lake, Schnick Lake and
Shimmons Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 182 and 211.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 26 and 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4140 10130 4156 10138 4183 10096 4154 10074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 243DEG 27KT 4152 10126

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
529 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ056>058-170000-
Deuel NE-Perkins NE-Keith NE-
529 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Perkins, southwestern Keith and southeastern Deuel Counties through
600 PM MDT...

At 529 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Big Springs, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ogallala, Big Springs, Brule, Barton, Goldeneye State Wildlife
Management Area and Megeath.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 61 between mile markers 76 and 86.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 101 and 127.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4122 10181 4100 10160 4087 10205 4100 10205
      4100 10219 4102 10221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 243DEG 27KT 4098 10207

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Snively

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