Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

A shortwave is progressing northeastward across northern CO and WY
late this morning per WV imagery. Large scale ascent ahead of this
feature will overspread the western High Plains this afternoon and
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop. The focus for development
will first be off the higher terrain across eastern WY, and then
late this afternoon and early evening along a sharpening inverted
trough that will extend northeastward across western NE from a
deepening surface low across eastern CO. Southeast low-level flow
will increase this afternoon across the Sandhills into
southwest/central NE to the east of the inverted trough. This will
help maintain dew points right around 60F, and as heating continues
expect the boundary layer to become moderately unstable. Shear is
sponger today than days past and somewhat better storm organization
is expected this evening. The environment would support supercell
structures, but sounding profiles indicate storms will likely be
outflow dominate and may have a difficult time maintaining inflow
for a sustained period. This would tend to favor strong (possibly
severe) wind gusts as the main hazard. Cannot rule out hail in a
cell that could maintain itself for a longer period of time, but
overall thinking is any severe should mostly be a wind threat. Any
severe may be brief due to the expected outflow dominated nature of
the storms. Another concern would be potential for heavy downpours
of rain. PWATS ahead of any storm activity should be around
1"...which is about 0.25" above average for this tome of year.
Storms will be progressive though and overall flooding concerns are
low.

As the shortwave tracks into the Northern Plains during the day
Saturday...a cold front will move southeast through the area with
winds shifting to the north. Low-level flow does gradually shift
easterly across western NE by late Saturday afternoon/evening. This
creates a weak upslope environment and may support a few storms
moving eastward off the higher terrain into northwest NE Saturday
evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

The heat will be on once again in the extended. Upper level ridging
will build northward across the Southern Plains the first of next
week. Seeing a signal for potential 100F degree heat across
portions of OK/KS and extending northward into southern NE Monday
and especially Tuesday. Mid to late week still appears to cool down
considerably. A strong shortwave will drop across the Northern
Plains/Great Lakes region, and send a strong Canadian cold front
southward through the area. Highs Thursday likely to remain in the
60s behind the front. Some showers are possible during this
timeframe but widespread organized precipitation is not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move across the region
tonight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon and
tonight outside of any thunderstorms activity. Winds will be
light but stronger and variable near any storm. Saturday should
see quiet conditions weatherwise with continued VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
321 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 /221 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska through the late evening hours. A few storms may be severe
and capable of producing strong winds and frequent lightning. Hail
and heavy downpours are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible again Saturday evening and night. The
potential for severe weather appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report observed severe weather or storm damage to the National
Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
235 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ004-162115-
Sheridan NE-
235 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Sheridan
County through 315 PM MDT...

At 234 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rushville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Clinton, Lone Butte, Mount Maria and Intersection
of Highway 27 and Mills Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 83 and 111.
 Highway 250 between mile markers 47 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4279 10209 4277 10208 4266 10207 4269 10263
      4290 10261 4293 10209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 268DEG 22KT 4279 10253

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ004-022-162200-
Sheridan NE-Garden NE-
322 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Garden and
southwestern Sheridan Counties through 400 PM MDT...

At 321 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wild Horse Butte to near Alliance Airport
to 16 miles west of Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ellsworth, Antioch, Patterson Lake, Britton Lake, Kennedy Lake, Wild
Horse Flats, Snow Lake, Miles Lake, Mumper, Wickson Lake, Diamond
Lake, Lakeside, Herman Lake, Jerry Lake, Krause Lake and Tralnor
Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 250 between mile markers 1 and 23.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 96 and 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4240 10246 4215 10220 4178 10214 4171 10264
      4174 10264 4175 10267 4177 10268 4200 10268
      4201 10270 4209 10270 4210 10274 4230 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 248DEG 28KT 4219 10286 4199 10273 4174 10272

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
503 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ094-162230-
Western Cherry NE-
503 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Cherry
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Merriman, or 17 miles south of Martin, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cody, Merriman, Cody Lake and Eli.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 132 and 161.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 221 and 231.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10125 4292 10121 4284 10174 4299 10183
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 249DEG 35KT 4293 10170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
405 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ004-023-094-162230-
Sheridan NE-Grant NE-Western Cherry NE-
405 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cherry,
northwestern Grant and southeastern Sheridan Counties through 430 PM
MDT...

At 405 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Ellsworth, or 39 miles east of Alliance, moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ashby, Finnegan Lake, Bingham, Dipping Vat Meadow, Mother Lake and
Watson Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 125 and 138.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 161 and 164.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4201 10215 4217 10221 4227 10182 4203 10171
      4201 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 255DEG 23KT 4208 10211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
421 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

NEZ023-024-035-162300-
Hooker NE-Grant NE-Arthur NE-
421 PM MDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Arthur,
southeastern Grant and northwestern Hooker Counties through 500 PM
MDT...

At 421 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Swan Lake, or 9 miles north of Arthur, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Swan Lake, Carr Lake, Green Lake, Lena, Sand Puddin Lake, Spring
Valley Lake, Cogill Lake and Weir.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 161 and 169.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 131 and 138.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 10162 4170 10177 4208 10146 4195 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 220DEG 37KT 4171 10165

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
547 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             4 E MERRIMAN            42.93N 101.63W
09/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

&&

BROWN