Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS North Platte, NE

471 
WWUS53 KLBF 162354
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
654 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEC009-115-170004-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0237.000000T0000Z-220717T0015Z/
Loup NE-Blaine NE-
654 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUP AND SOUTHERN
BLAINE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4137 9995 4161 10017 4174 9990 4174 9925
      4172 9921 4158 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 332DEG 17KT 4173 9959 4162 9998 

$$

NEC041-170015-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0237.000000T0000Z-220717T0015Z/
Custer NE-
654 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CUSTER COUNTY...

At 654 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 11 miles west of Taylor to near Anselmo, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sargent, Merna, Anselmo, Victoria Springs State Recreation Area,
Lillian, Milburn, Round Valley, Walworth, Big Oak Canyon, Divide Hill
and Gates.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 108 and 121.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 250 and 273.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 259 and 273.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4137 9995 4161 10017 4174 9990 4174 9925
      4172 9921 4158 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 332DEG 17KT 4173 9959 4162 9998 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
350 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

The subtropical upper level disturbance operating across ncntl
Nebraska this afternoon will exit the region this evening. Most of
the heavier showers and thunderstorms should be east of the area.
Until the system departs, deep layer 0-8km shear near 50kts, high
CAPE and precipitable water north of 1.75 inches will support
isolated HP supercells.

Dry air will move in aloft at h750-700mb tonight and this could
potentially produce a radiation condition for fog across ncntl
Nebraska by 12z Sunday morning. The short term model blend was the
basis for patchy fog along and east of highway 281.

The temperature forecast tonight through Sunday night leans on the
short term model blend plus bias correction. A very weak Pacific
cold front will drift through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and
this should advect drier air into wrn Nebraska during the day
Sunday. Ncntl Nebraska will remain in the 60+F dew point air while
dew points in the west drop into the 50s. This is important because
predicted high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s across the west
could meet heat advisory criteria if dew points remained in the 60s.

The forecast highs in the 90s Sunday are supported by h700mb
temperatures of 12C-13C. This forecast is a degree or two warmer
than the NBM 50th percentile and the guidance blend, but slightly
cooler than the bias corrected guidance blend which suggested 100F
around Imperial.

Warm air adviction will continue Sunday night in preparation for a
major heat wave Monday. The temperature forecast Sunday night uses
the guidance blend which was cool, and the short term model blend
which was warmer. There is a chance winds will decouple across
parts srn Nebraska supporting lows in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Another major heat wave will develop across wrn and ncntl Nebraska
Monday. The models suggest h700mb temperatures of 18C-19C which
would support highs north of 105F in some areas. In fact, the NAM
guidance suggested 110F for highs at Pine Ridge and Valentine.
This the result of downsloping winds off the Sandhills into the
Niobrara valley and the White River valley. The forecast uses the
NBM suggested highs in the mid 100s. The HRRR and RAP models will
be in range of this event Sunday.

A swath of drier air be in place with dew points falling into the
50s across western Nebraska. The latest forecast puts heat indices
in the low to mid 100s and later forecasts will likely carve out a
heat advisory across much, if not all of western and north central
Nebraska.

Temperatures aloft at h700mb cool Wednesday and Thursday. Still, 90s
are in place for highs. The next obvious opportunity for 100+F heat
develops Friday. The models are in good agreement warming h700mb
temps back up to 17C-18C.

No meaningful rainfall chances are in the extended forecast. The
plume of subtropical moisture which has produced rainfall across the
region will remain across the Rockies but migrate north into the
Dakotas after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Scattered TSTMS are expected this afternoon into the early
evening hours tonight across western and north central Nebraska.
Otherwise VFR is expected to prevail with light winds outside of
any TSTM activity. There could be some spotty MVFR and even IFR
early Sunday morning with all the humidity and light winds, but
confidence is low on this occurring.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
347 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 /247 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening across most of
western and north central Nebraska. There is a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms with the main threats being large hail up to
quarter size and strong winds. Some storms may also produce
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Hot temperatures are expected Sunday through Friday across
western and north central Nebraska. Dangerous heat is expected on
Monday as highs reach 100 to 107 degrees.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday and Tuesday
as hot temperatures and gusty winds are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
530 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEZ009-010-027-028-162315-
Loup NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-Rock NE-
530 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Rock,
northeastern Loup, northwestern Garfield and southwestern Holt
Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 530 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Rose, or 23 miles north of Burwell, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Amelia, Carson Lake and Sunfish Lake.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 138 and 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4197 9944 4219 9943 4224 9888 4190 9888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 267DEG 20KT 4211 9927

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
533 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEZ059-071-162315-
Frontier NE-Lincoln NE-
533 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Frontier and southeastern Lincoln Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Wellfleet, or 8 miles northwest of Curtis, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Curtis, Moorefield, Stockville, Maywood, Hansen Memorial Reserve
State Wildlife Management Area and Dancing Leaf Earth Lodge.

This includes Highway 83 between mile markers 49 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 10072 4081 10063 4073 10022 4049 10032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 296DEG 15KT 4075 10058

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
554 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEZ025-026-162345-
Thomas NE-Blaine NE-
554 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Blaine and
southeastern Thomas Counties through 645 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Brewster to 7 miles east
of Thedford. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Dunning, Halsey, Hawley Flats and Natwick.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 215 and 244.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 145 and 146.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4188 9969 4177 9982 4174 10035 4196 10059
      4208 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 310DEG 19KT 4204 9995 4194 10043

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             13 N BURWELL            41.97N 99.15W
07/16/2022  E1.00 INCH       GARFIELD           NE   PUBLIC

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
614 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEZ010-028-029-170000-
Wheeler NE-Holt NE-Garfield NE-
614 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Garfield, south central Holt and northwestern Wheeler Counties
through 700 PM CDT...

At 614 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Amelia, or 22 miles southwest of O'Neill, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chambers, Amelia, Buffalo Flats, Sunfish Lake and Gables.

This includes Highway 281 between mile markers 146 and 147, and
between mile markers 150 and 157.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4220 9905 4229 9884 4195 9852 4182 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 330DEG 19KT 4219 9890

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
617 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             9 N BURWELL             41.91N 99.10W
07/16/2022  E1.25 INCH       GARFIELD           NE   PUBLIC

&&

SNIVELY