Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS North Platte, NE

260 
WWUS53 KLBF 161711
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEC015-089-161745-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-220716T1745Z/
Holt NE-Boyd NE-
1211 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN HOLT AND CENTRAL BOYD COUNTIES...

At 1211 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southwest
of Butte, or 16 miles west of Spencer, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Butte, Dustin, Anoka, Parshall Bridge State Wildlife Management Area
and Hull Lake State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 103 and 120.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4273 9909 4295 9905 4295 9875 4268 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 292DEG 17KT 4280 9902 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CDC

765 
WWUS53 KLBF 161744
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEC015-089-161754-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-220716T1745Z/
Holt NE-Boyd NE-
1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HOLT AND CENTRAL
BOYD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
North Platte.

LAT...LON 4273 9909 4295 9905 4295 9875 4268 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 276DEG 15KT 4279 9885 

$$

Taylor

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
958 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had high pressure
anchored over northeastern New Mexico. High pressure was also
located northeast of Bermuda. Further west, closed low pressure was
located over southern portions of the Alaska Peninsula. A trough of
low pressure extended south of this feature to approximately 1000
miles off the coast of central California. Across the central,
northern Rockies and high plains tonight, a weak disturbance was
located from eastern Montana into central Wyoming. This shortwave
trough of low pressure had led to showers and thunderstorms tonight
from western North Dakota into western Nebraska and northwestern
Kansas. Skies were mostly cloudy overnight across western and north
central Nebraska and temperatures as of 3 AM CDT, ranged from 69
degrees at Gordon, to 76 degrees at O'Neill.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

POPs across ncntl Nebraska this afternoon get a boost to 50
percent plus the mention of locally heavy rainfall as suggested by
WPC qpf/ERDdy1, the CAMS and the RAP model/BUFkit. The rest of the
forecast is on track. There is a chance the locally heavy rainfall
will develop this evening vs this afternoon. The timing is
uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Over the next 36 hours, precipitation chances will be the main
forecast challenge. Ridging will build north from northeastern
Wyoming into the western Dakotas and eastern Montana today.
Immediately downstream of this ridging, a decent shortwave trough
will deepen from Minnesota, southwest into eastern South Dakota
and central Nebraska. With afternoon heating and increased
instability, showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the
shortwave trough approaches. ATTM, the greatest threat for showers
and thunderstorms appears to be in the central and eastern
forecast area. As for the severe threat this afternoon, there is
decent deep layer shear (~40KTS) and SB CAPES of 2000- 3000J/KG
this afternoon over north central Nebraska. This would be more
than ample to support severe storms this afternoon. However, skies
may remain mostly cloudy in central and north central Nebraska
today limiting the severe threat. Also, the latest NAM12 soln is
indicative of little to no cap this afternoon. This would favor
several competing updrafts and not much of a focus for supercell
development. As for temperatures today, I did go ahead and trend
temps downward across portions of north central and northeastern
portions of the forecast area. This was in response to guidance
trending lower and expected mostly cloudy skies in these areas.
The shortwave trough will drop south into Iowa and north central
Kansas overnight tonight with the precipitation threat ending
after midnight. Behind the exiting shortwave trough, ridging will
build east on Sunday. This will allow warmer air to push into
central and eastern portions of the forecast area. The result will
be highs in the mid to upper 90s Sunday afternoon with readings
approaching 100 in the far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Hot temperatures with little to no threat for precipitation will
highlight the extended portion of the forecast. On Monday, a
shortwave trough will lift from Washington State into western
Montana. This will force ridging east, as well as flattening the
ridge across the northern plains. Forecast H85 temps Monday
afternoon will range from 29C in the east, to 36C in the west. The
latest NBM forecast had highs ranging from 99 degrees at Broken
Bow, to 107 at Imperial. Based on the latest MET and MAV numbers,
the NBM forecast appears on track. Forecast highs Monday are 99
for BBW, 105 for LBF and VTN and 107 for IML. Record highs for
Monday are 103 for LBF, 105 for VTN and 110 for IML and BBW.
Monday night, the shortwave trough will approach North Dakota
forcing a cool front into South Dakota and northern Nebraska. This
will also increase the threat for thunderstorms in the
northwestern forecast area Monday evening. Further south and east,
capping should inhibit thunderstorm development, so dry
conditions are expected. Highs Tuesday will range from the lower
90s in northern Nebraska to around 100 along and south of I-80.
The H5 trough will track east into the northern Great Lakes
Wednesday into Thursday allowing ridging to build back into the
central and northern Rockies. This will result in hot and mainly
dry conditions through the end of next week. Highs will generally
be in the mid to upper 90s with 100+ readings in southwestern
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today across all
of north central Nebraska. Strong to briefly severe storms are
possible with hail and strong winds as the main threats. Heavy
rainfall may also reduce visibilities briefly. Thunderstorms will
end by early evening giving way to VFR conditions once again.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...CDC
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
344 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-170845-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
344 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 /244 AM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across
western and north central Nebraska. There is a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms with the main threats being large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Hot temperatures are expected Sunday through Friday across western
and north central Nebraska. Dangerous heat is expected on Monday
as highs reach 100 to 107 degrees.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday into Monday
night as hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today and tonight.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

NEZ006-007-010-161715-
Holt NE-Keya Paha NE-Boyd NE-
1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Holt,
northeastern Keya Paha and western Boyd Counties through 1215 PM
CDT...

At 1114 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Naper, or 22 miles east of Springview, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Naper, Dustin, Nets Peak, Mills and Brocksburg.

This includes Highway 12 between mile markers 71 and 109.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4276 9894 4284 9948 4299 9949 4300 9930
      4300 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 270DEG 14KT 4291 9931

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC