Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
134 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

Early afternoon satellite imagery and observations show no shortage of
boundaries across central and western Nebraska with an old lingering
frontal boundary extending from SD into central/eastern Nebraska, a
north-south inverted trof/dryline across western Nebraska, and numerous
convective outflow boundaries floating around. Instability has been
pooling all morning with CAPE values ranging from 1500J/kg north to
2500J/kg south, and the cap largely eroded north of I-80. Expect
convective initiation will occur upstream as numerous short waves
evident in water vapor move over the frontal boundary this afternoon
and evening. 0-3km bulk shear vectors of 30kt to 40kt appear to have a
favorable enough orientation to the boundary for discrete cells that
will propagate southeastward along the boundary and into central
Nebraska, likely also encountering old convective outflow boundaries
from morning convection still percolating across northeast Nebraska.
With slight differences in location and timing, mesoscale guidance is
in fairly good agreement advertising has a strong signal for more than
one supercell to move along the boundary with the full suite of hail,
wind, and possibly tornadic severe threats in play before convection
pushes clear of the region to the southeast before Midnight. Not much
of a ow level jet tonight to fuel vigorous convection overnight but
expect some showers/thunder will be stewing around through daybreak.

We finally get a good kicker to boot the lingering frontal boundary to
our south as a good amount of short wave energy starts moving the axis
of the upper short wave eastward. However before this can take place,
the convective environment remains quite favorable for another round of
severe storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Instability south of
highway 2 will be quite robust and will support some big hail with
abundant shear for organized convection.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

Wednesday looks to be a dry day as the axis of the departing upper trof
moves to our east and high pressure builds in at the surface. However
this break will be brief as the surface high moves off to our east and
pushes a warm front into the region with showers and thunderstorms by
Wednesday night. The lingering warm front will then serve as a focus
for convection on Thursday with significant instability pooling along
the boundary in a highly sheared environment. Expect a severe threat of
hail, wind, and with 0-3km bulk shear vectors approaching 50kts and
just enough angle of attack relative to the boundary to support a
tornado threat as well into Thursday evening. Will be watching evolution
of parameters closely over the next few days.

Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement in building a ridge over
the western US through the weekend before another large upper trof
starts building into the PacNW as we head into next week. The axis of
the upper ridge looks to be a bit further west and this will result in
systems spilling over the ridge in northwest flow with a surface
boundary meandering across the High Plains. This will keep at least a
low chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each day thorugh
the weekend but do not expect any day to be a washout.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
and continue into the evening hours. Some thunderstorms may be
severe with very large hail and damaging winds as the primary
threats. Visibility reductions should be expected in heavy rainfall
from these storms. Storms may linger through Tuesday morning with a
brief break by late morning. Additional thunderstorm chances are
expected Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Kulik

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