Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
759 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2022

As predicted by the CAMS earlier in the day, convection has fired
up again this evening across eastern KY. While the storms are
moving, flash flooding is likely to occur over areas where heavy
rain falls on already saturated soils. Grids were in fairly good
shape, so only minor tweaks were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 446 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2022

The latest analysis shows a larger trough aloft with embedded low
over the much of the northern border of the CONUS, with ridging
over the southern and western portions of the CONUS. At the
surface, the stationary boundary that has been the focus for much
of our weather through the short term sits to our north wavering
over the border between Kentucky and Ohio, leaving our CWA in the
warm sector. The pattern doesn't overall changes little through
Thursday night. The front will waver over the region through
Thursday before eventually washing out, while another front moves
towards the region from the northwest Thursday night.

The convection that developed over our area earlier
in the afternoon has pushed east and is confined mainly to the
Virginia border. Unfortunately, the break won't last. More
development is expected tonight, with additional rounds expected to
develop near or along the nearby boundary through Thursday night as
subtle waves move through the upper level flow. The main story
around heavy rain remains largely unchanged. An ample amount of
moisture is focused along the nearby boundary and PWATs stay
roughly near the 2 inch mark. Prevailing flow stays nearly
parallel to the boundary, allowing for the possibility for these
efficient rainers to repeat over the same locations. In addition
to the potential for future heavy rain, the ample rain received in
many locations over the previous days has left many areas with
lower FFG values, and it would not take much to cause issues in
these locations. So, have allowed the Flood Watch to continue, and
have it going out through Friday morning. With the rain and cloud
cover, temperatures are likely to be a tad more limited
diurnally. Temperatures will dip to the low 70s tonight before
warming into the low to mid 80s Thursday. Lows Thursday night are
similarly expected to hover near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2022

Key Messages:

* An unsettled pattern continues through Friday, with the
  potential for at least isolated Flash Flooding.
* This front pushes to the south Saturday possibly leading to a
  dry day for many locations.
* Could see a renewed heavy rainfall potential by Sunday into Monday

The model systems remain in good agreement for a more quasi-zonal
pattern remaining the story in the upper levels to begin the
period. This in conjunction with a nearby boundary will keep the
weather wet across Kentucky. There will be ample deep moisture as
PWATs remain in the 2 plus inch range, with this residing in the
90th plus percentile in both the NAEFS and EPS. Again, given this
and the parallel flow to the boundary will keep the risk of heavy
rain and flash flooding, but this should begin to shift south
toward the Tennessee Valley by Late Friday into Saturday. This as
a wave rides through the larger trough pushing into the Great
Lakes and NE States. This will begin pushing that front southward
and allow for the a bit more dry air to push into the area
underneath a surface high. This weak northerly flow will push
PWATs back into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range and allow some to see
little if any precipitation on Saturday.

This is short-lived as the aforementioned front pulls back north
by Sunday, as Bermuda upper level ridging starts to nose west.
However, based on the weather model ensemble systems there is a
far amount of uncertainty on how this will play out, but the
potential exists for another wet period of weather based on the
locally quasi-zonal flow noted. Particularly as we see several
waves ride through the flow. This will all happen as the models
are in good agreement with the potential for PWATs climbing back
into the 2 inch range under deep southerly flow. This is enough
for WPC to highlight parts of lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee
Valley in the hazards outlook for heavy rainfall for Sunday and
Monday, as well parts of the area in a day 4 and 5 slight risk for
excessive rainfall.

Past Tuesday, we see the upper level ridging that has brought the
heat in the Plains states shifts east bringing height rises to
the Ohio Valley. This as that boundary lifts north will increase
afternoon highs and should be drier overall. However, more
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms become the story.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2022

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will result in brief flight
restrictions during the 00Z TAF period. Some general MVFR ceilings
are possible overnight into early Thursday morning, but confidence
is fairly low on ceilings at this time. Winds will be generally
S/SW 5-10 kts however some higher gusts and variable directions
are possible in or near thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...CMF
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...CMF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
337 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-282245-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
337 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will affect much of the area, as a frontal boundary
oscillates north and south across Eastern Kentucky. Thunderstorms
will be persistent in some locations, potentially resulting in
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday
night. They should become less numerous on Friday, but will still
be possible at times through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall may occur,
especially Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead to
localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any issues with flooding or high
water.

DJ/HAS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

KYZ050>052-058>060-104-106-280100-
Rowan KY-Montgomery KY-Elliott KY-Menifee KY-Estill KY-Morgan KY-
Bath KY-Powell KY-
809 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Powell, Montgomery,
northern Morgan, southeastern Bath, northwestern Estill, Menifee,
southern Rowan and southwestern Elliott Counties through 900 PM
EDT...

At 808 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Cornwell to near Harris Ferry. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Frenchburg, Sudith, Rothwell, Cornwell, Olympia Springs, Young
  Springs and Clay Lick around 815 PM EDT.
  Ratlitt and Wiseman Crossing Station around 820 PM EDT.
  Clay City, Powell Valley, Virden, Dan, Big Woods, Waltersville,
  Scranton, Korea, Westbend and Artville around 825 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Stanton, Ebon,
Kellacey, Omer, Vaughns Mill, Paragon, Bangor, Levee, Cottage
Furnace, Henry, Zag, Dehart, Yocum, Cat Creek, Rosslyn, Twentysix,
Blaze, Woodsbend, Leisure, West Liberty, Pomp, Bowen, Wrigley,
Licking River, Lombard, Liberty Road, Means, Cedar Groves, Rogers
Chapel, Campsites in the Indian Creek area of the Daniel Boone
National Forrest, Lenox, Haystack, Lick Branch, Fagan, Tabor, Nada,
Slade, Elkfork and Steele.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 8305 3782 8360 3783 8362 3781 8364
      3768 8410 3775 8408 3778 8411 3781 8408
      3781 8412 3784 8410 3784 8408 3782 8407
      3785 8406 3783 8400 3787 8403 3787 8402
      3792 8399 3793 8397 3803 8402 3820 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 268DEG 40KT 3797 8372 3786 8420

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

FISHER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
814 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

KYZ104-106-107-280045-
Elliott KY-Johnson KY-Morgan KY-
814 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Morgan,
northwestern Johnson and eastern Elliott Counties through 845 PM
EDT...

At 814 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Isonville, or near Sandy Hook, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Culver around 825 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Bruin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 8298 3818 8292 3811 8289 3809 8293
      3805 8295 3803 8300 3798 8302 3796 8300
      3800 8296 3798 8286 3790 8298 3807 8318
      3821 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 226DEG 19KT 3803 8303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

FISHER