Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2022

As predicted by the CAMS earlier in the day, convection has fired
up again this evening across eastern KY. While the storms are
moving, flash flooding is likely to occur over areas where heavy
rain falls on already saturated soils. Grids were in fairly good
shape, so only minor tweaks were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 446 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2022

The latest analysis shows a larger trough aloft with embedded low
over the much of the northern border of the CONUS, with ridging
over the southern and western portions of the CONUS. At the
surface, the stationary boundary that has been the focus for much
of our weather through the short term sits to our north wavering
over the border between Kentucky and Ohio, leaving our CWA in the
warm sector. The pattern doesn't overall changes little through
Thursday night. The front will waver over the region through
Thursday before eventually washing out, while another front moves
towards the region from the northwest Thursday night.

The convection that developed over our area earlier
in the afternoon has pushed east and is confined mainly to the
Virginia border. Unfortunately, the break won't last. More
development is expected tonight, with additional rounds expected to
develop near or along the nearby boundary through Thursday night as
subtle waves move through the upper level flow. The main story
around heavy rain remains largely unchanged. An ample amount of
moisture is focused along the nearby boundary and PWATs stay
roughly near the 2 inch mark. Prevailing flow stays nearly
parallel to the boundary, allowing for the possibility for these
efficient rainers to repeat over the same locations. In addition
to the potential for future heavy rain, the ample rain received in
many locations over the previous days has left many areas with
lower FFG values, and it would not take much to cause issues in
these locations. So, have allowed the Flood Watch to continue, and
have it going out through Friday morning. With the rain and cloud
cover, temperatures are likely to be a tad more limited
diurnally. Temperatures will dip to the low 70s tonight before
warming into the low to mid 80s Thursday. Lows Thursday night are
similarly expected to hover near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2022

Key Messages:

* An unsettled pattern continues through Friday, with the
  potential for at least isolated Flash Flooding.
* This front pushes to the south Saturday possibly leading to a
  dry day for many locations.
* Could see a renewed heavy rainfall potential by Sunday into Monday

The model systems remain in good agreement for a more quasi-zonal
pattern remaining the story in the upper levels to begin the
period. This in conjunction with a nearby boundary will keep the
weather wet across Kentucky. There will be ample deep moisture as
PWATs remain in the 2 plus inch range, with this residing in the
90th plus percentile in both the NAEFS and EPS. Again, given this
and the parallel flow to the boundary will keep the risk of heavy
rain and flash flooding, but this should begin to shift south
toward the Tennessee Valley by Late Friday into Saturday. This as
a wave rides through the larger trough pushing into the Great
Lakes and NE States. This will begin pushing that front southward
and allow for the a bit more dry air to push into the area
underneath a surface high. This weak northerly flow will push
PWATs back into the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range and allow some to see
little if any precipitation on Saturday.

This is short-lived as the aforementioned front pulls back north
by Sunday, as Bermuda upper level ridging starts to nose west.
However, based on the weather model ensemble systems there is a
far amount of uncertainty on how this will play out, but the
potential exists for another wet period of weather based on the
locally quasi-zonal flow noted. Particularly as we see several
waves ride through the flow. This will all happen as the models
are in good agreement with the potential for PWATs climbing back
into the 2 inch range under deep southerly flow. This is enough
for WPC to highlight parts of lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee
Valley in the hazards outlook for heavy rainfall for Sunday and
Monday, as well parts of the area in a day 4 and 5 slight risk for
excessive rainfall.

Past Tuesday, we see the upper level ridging that has brought the
heat in the Plains states shifts east bringing height rises to
the Ohio Valley. This as that boundary lifts north will increase
afternoon highs and should be drier overall. However, more
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms become the story.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2022

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact flight categories
through the period. To begin, SME, LOZ, SYM, and SJS will start
off in VFR, before falling to MVFR towards dawn. JKL will be the
exception, where on going convection has brought ceilings to LIFR,
with general improvement in the next couple of hours. With that
said, additional showers and thunderstorms will pour in overnight
and into Thursday, briefly reducing ceilings and/or visibilities
for a time. This will be particularly so for any thunderstorms
that directly pass over a site. Improving conditions, to VFR,
will begin to return toward the afternoon Thursday for most sites.
Winds will generally be out of the southwest at less than 10 kts,
however higher gusts and variable directions are possible in or
near thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...CMF
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
337 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-282245-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
337 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will affect much of the area, as a frontal boundary
oscillates north and south across Eastern Kentucky. Thunderstorms
will be persistent in some locations, potentially resulting in
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday
night. They should become less numerous on Friday, but will still
be possible at times through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall may occur,
especially Thursday and Thursday night, which could lead to
localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any issues with flooding or high
water.

DJ/HAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1218 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE HENDRICKS          37.68N 83.12W
07/28/2022                   MAGOFFIN           KY   PUBLIC

            BUSINESS ALONG BEAR BRANCH WAS FLOODED.

&&

CF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1221 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE HAZARD            37.25N 83.18W
07/28/2022                   PERRY              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EAST MAIN STREET IS FLOODED AND NOT
            PASSABLE.

&&

CF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
112 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CANOE                   37.45N 83.45W
07/28/2022                   BREATHITT          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOOD WATERS HAVE WASHED OUT CULVERTS AND
            DESTROYED THE ROAD ON JOE LITTLE FORK ROAD
            IN THE CANOE AREA OF BREATHITT COUNTY.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N BRINKLEY            37.32N 82.94W
07/28/2022                   KNOTT              KY   PUBLIC

            PORTION OF RT 899 FLOODED NEAR THE IGA STORE
            IN HINDMAN.

&&

CF

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