Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022

A shortwave is moving through the OH valley this afternoon, which is
touching off numerous showers and thunderstorms north of our area.
The southern flank of the line will brush the Bluegrass over the
next several hours, with some possibility of a few stronger storms
with MUCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/Kg across the area. The wave will
move off towards WV and the central Appalachian mountains this
evening, with some remaining chances of showers or storms over far
eastern KY through early this evening. There is additional
convection upstream which the CAMS are not handling well, so that
will need to be watched as we head into the evening to see if any of
that holds together as it gets closer to our area.

Convection is expected to wane later this evening and then there
should be some clearing overnight with just some passing high
clouds. Overall any patchy fog will be confined to the deeper river
valleys, however some additional fog may occur in areas that see
heavy rainfall this afternoon into early evening. Low temps tonight
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Sunday and Sunday night our attention will turn to the next
system that will be moving across the upper Great Lakes region, with
a cold front trailing back across the upper midwest. This frontal
boundary will move into NW portions of the OH valley during the day
on Sunday and then be approx at the IN/KY border overnight into
Monday morning. It'll be a hot and humid day across Eastern KY with
any chances of showers and storms not occurring until late Sunday
night into early Monday morning as the front gets closer to the
area. Afternoon high temps will be in the lower 90s with some
locations likely to hit 95. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, the
heat and humidity will result in heat indices again around 100
degrees. Increasing clouds overnight into Monday morning, with the
highest chances of precip before dawn along and north of the
Mountain Parkway. Low temps Monday morning will be in the lower
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022

An active pattern remains on track in the extended, as a series of
low pressure systems and slow moving surface fronts are expected
to move through the region next week. We will see periods of
showers and storms across eastern Kentucky each day and night
through the entire upcoming work week, as warm, moist, and
unstable air interacts with the aforementioned surface fronts and
upper level systems. The most active times for storms each day
will be during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak
heating. Locally heavy rainfall that could lead to high water
issues will be possible at times as well, especially for locations
that experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Daily highs will
max out in the 80s, while nightly lows are forecast to fall into
the upper 60s and lower 70s around the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022

VFR to start the 18Z TAF cycle. A wave moving across the OH valley
this afternoon may touch off some scattered thunderstorms at KSYM
and later this afternoon into early evening at KSJS. Some gusty
winds may accompany these thunderstorms. Otherwise, the rest of
the area is mostly clear with W/SW winds 5-10 kts. Some patchy
river valley fog is possible overnight, but shouldn't impact most
of the terminals, although did but visby restrictions in at KLOZ.
Any fog that does develop will quickly dissipate around 12Z and
then VFR for the remainder of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
244 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-242145-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
244 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through early this evening, mainly
north of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Storms could contain strong wind
gusts.

Peak heat indices of around 100 degrees are expected through early
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Peak heat indices around 100 degrees are expected Sunday
afternoon.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from late Sunday night
through Friday. A slow moving front early in the week may result
in heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday, which could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CMF/AR

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>