Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022

A shortwave is moving through the OH valley this afternoon, which is
touching off numerous showers and thunderstorms north of our area.
The southern flank of the line will brush the Bluegrass over the
next several hours, with some possibility of a few stronger storms
with MUCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/Kg across the area. The wave will
move off towards WV and the central Appalachian mountains this
evening, with some remaining chances of showers or storms over far
eastern KY through early this evening. There is additional
convection upstream which the CAMS are not handling well, so that
will need to be watched as we head into the evening to see if any of
that holds together as it gets closer to our area.

Convection is expected to wane later this evening and then there
should be some clearing overnight with just some passing high
clouds. Overall any patchy fog will be confined to the deeper river
valleys, however some additional fog may occur in areas that see
heavy rainfall this afternoon into early evening. Low temps tonight
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

On Sunday and Sunday night our attention will turn to the next
system that will be moving across the upper Great Lakes region, with
a cold front trailing back across the upper midwest. This frontal
boundary will move into NW portions of the OH valley during the day
on Sunday and then be approx at the IN/KY border overnight into
Monday morning. It'll be a hot and humid day across Eastern KY with
any chances of showers and storms not occurring until late Sunday
night into early Monday morning as the front gets closer to the
area. Afternoon high temps will be in the lower 90s with some
locations likely to hit 95. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, the
heat and humidity will result in heat indices again around 100
degrees. Increasing clouds overnight into Monday morning, with the
highest chances of precip before dawn along and north of the
Mountain Parkway. Low temps Monday morning will be in the lower
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022

An active pattern remains on track in the extended, as a series of
low pressure systems and slow moving surface fronts are expected
to move through the region next week. We will see periods of
showers and storms across eastern Kentucky each day and night
through the entire upcoming work week, as warm, moist, and
unstable air interacts with the aforementioned surface fronts and
upper level systems. The most active times for storms each day
will be during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak
heating. Locally heavy rainfall that could lead to high water
issues will be possible at times as well, especially for locations
that experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Daily highs will
max out in the 80s, while nightly lows are forecast to fall into
the upper 60s and lower 70s around the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2022

VFR to start the 18Z TAF cycle. A wave moving across the OH valley
this afternoon may touch off some scattered thunderstorms at KSYM
and later this afternoon into early evening at KSJS. Some gusty
winds may accompany these thunderstorms. Otherwise, the rest of
the area is mostly clear with W/SW winds 5-10 kts. Some patchy
river valley fog is possible overnight, but shouldn't impact most
of the terminals, although did but visby restrictions in at KLOZ.
Any fog that does develop will quickly dissipate around 12Z and
then VFR for the remainder of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
244 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-242145-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
244 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through early this evening, mainly
north of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Storms could contain strong wind
gusts.

Peak heat indices of around 100 degrees are expected through early
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Peak heat indices around 100 degrees are expected Sunday
afternoon.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from late Sunday night
through Friday. A slow moving front early in the week may result
in heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday, which could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

CMF/AR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
417 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

KYZ106-107-109-232100-
Johnson KY-Magoffin KY-Morgan KY-
417 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Morgan,
southwestern Johnson and Magoffin Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 417 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Haleburg, or 8 miles north of Salyersville, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Orient and Grayfox around 420 PM EDT.
  Plutarch, Ever, Cisco, Quod, Lacey, Bloomington, Minefork and Win
  around 425 PM EDT.
  Tella, Coon, Flat Fork, Wonnie, Hargis and Harper around 430 PM
  EDT.
  Licksburg, Leatha, Wheelersburg, Elsie, Patton, Niles and Bethanna
  around 435 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Perlie, Cyrus,
Brownlow, Gifford, Kernie, Oil Springs, Hager, Salyersville,
Stringtown, Falcon, Gullett, Stella, Ova, Mashfork, Ballot, Mason,
Burning Fork, Lakesville, Conley and Fritz.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 8286 3770 8290 3771 8291 3772 8293
      3768 8294 3763 8315 3764 8317 3764 8319
      3780 8331 3796 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 340DEG 14KT 3787 8310

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
432 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

KYZ110-120-232115-
Floyd KY-Pike KY-
432 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Floyd
and west central Pike Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 432 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dana, or 10 miles south of Prestonsburg, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Honaker, Aluba, Harold and Hunter around 445 PM EDT.
  Blue Moon and Boldman around 450 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Drift, Minnie, Coal
Run, Pikeville, Grethel, Osborn, McDowell, Craynor, Galveston, East
McDowell, Beaver, Orkney, Buckhorn Hollow, Price, Hi Hat and
Buckingham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 8247 3736 8276 3737 8275 3738 8276
      3740 8275 3742 8276 3743 8278 3760 8275
      3764 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 344DEG 8KT 3755 8269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF