Tornado Warning 29, NWS Jacksonville, FL

219 
WWUS52 KJAX 101738
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1238 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

GAC039-127-101800-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-221110T1800Z/
Camden GA-Glynn GA-
1238 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CAMDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN GLYNN COUNTIES...
    
At 1238 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles east of Waverly, or 9 miles southwest of
Brunswick, moving west at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Camden and southwestern Glynn Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 3104 8152 3099 8156 3100 8162 3107 8173
      3123 8162 3109 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 112DEG 51KT 3105 8158 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

SHASHY

737 
WWUS52 KJAX 101747
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1247 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

GAC039-127-101757-
/O.CAN.KJAX.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-221110T1800Z/
Camden GA-Glynn GA-
1247 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CAMDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN GLYNN
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for southeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3104 8152 3099 8156 3100 8162 3107 8173
      3123 8162 3109 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 116DEG 35KT 3109 8168 

$$

SHASHY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1108 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

.UPDATE...

Tropical storm force winds, showers, thunderstorms, and possible
isolated tornados will continue to develop across the forecast
area today as Tropical Storm Nicole moves towards the Florida
peninsula's west coast before turning northward. Powerful winds,
storm surge flooding, and beach erosion are occuring as a result
of this storm with flooding along beaches occuring in tandem with
the high tide. Localized flooding and wind damage are possible
today through Friday, with an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [659 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 426 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

The focus this period will be on Tropical Cyclone named Nicole.

Nicole will track northwest across central FL this morning. Then
continue to track northwest toward Tallahassee this afternoon,
before turning more to the north Tonight, then northeast Friday.

As for Tornado potential, a surge of moisture and instability will
come up the right side of the storm into coastal NE FL this morning.
This is where the greatest chance for Tornadoes will be this AM. As
the storm travels to the west of the forecast area this afternoon
and evening, tornado chances will spread across the forecast area.

Coastal hazards will continue through Today, then begin to subside
Tonight. Flooding along the St Johns river will also be expected
this period.

The greatest Areal flooding potential will be focused around the
St Johns river basin, where any rainfall will enhance flooding from
surge and trapped tides. Could also see localized flooding from
rainfall in flood prone areas across region.

The swath of elevated winds will be across the area Today into
Tonight, with a decreasing trend during the overnight hours. The
strongest winds will be at the coast.

On Friday, as the storm moves quickly away to the north northeast,
the systems trailing cold front will linger over the area. While
conditions will improve rapidly across area Friday, the chance for
precipitation will linger into the early afternoon due to the
trailing front.

Temperatures this period will trend above normal.

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 426 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

A secondary cold front extending from remnants of Nicole Friday
night, will be just northwest of the area. This front is expected
to slowly move southeast across forecast area Saturday into
Saturday night, as strong high pressure builds from the northwest.
This boundary will keep clouds in the forecast this period. A dry
frontal passage is currently forecast given drier air in place,
but the chance will not be zero. A few spotty showers on this
boundary can not be ruled out.

Temperatures Friday night and Saturday will be above normal, while
Saturday night lows will be closer to seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Strong high pressure will build to the north Sunday through Monday,
then more to the northeast Tuesday.

An area of low pressure is expected to track east along the Gulf
coast Tuesday, then weaken as it moves to the northeast through
Wednesday.

Dry weather is expected for Sunday and Monday, but chances will
return for Monday night and Tuesday. These chances will both be
associated with gulf low, as well as from coastal showers.

With a cool and dry flow from the north on Sunday, highs will be
below normal. Readings will be quite cool Sunday night as well, with
a little patchy frost possible inland SE GA. Temperatures will be a
little warmer on Monday, but still below seasonal averages. Near
normal readings are then expected for Monday night through
Wednesday.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Friday]

IFR ceilings will be in place through the morning and into the
early afternoon as TS Nicole progresses across the Florida
peninsula. Winds will range 20-30 knots with gusts 30-40 knots
for most of the sites through the forecast period, with higher
winds at the immediate coastal sites 35-40 knots and gusts of
45-50 knots at SGJ 12-18Z with 35-40 knots and gusts up to 40-45
knots possible at SSI 14-23Z. Showers with possible thunderstorms
will pass through the forecast area today with winds, showers,
and storms becoming more diminished for southern locations as
Nicole moves northward towards the end of the forecast period.

.MARINE...
Issued at 426 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Tropical Cyclone named Nicole will move northwest across FL
Today, then make a turn more toward the north Tonight and
northeast Friday. Elevated conditions associated with Nicole will
be expected through Friday night. A cold front will move southeast
across area Saturday into Saturday night, with high pressure
building to the northwest then north on Sunday. High pressure will
be to the north through Monday, then to the northeast Tuesday.

Rip Currents: High Risk through Friday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  73  68  75  60  77 /  90  90  60   0   0
SSI  75  70  79  64  77 /  90  60  50   0   0
JAX  76  69  81  63  80 / 100  60  40   0   0
SGJ  79  69  81  64  79 / 100  30  30   0   0
GNV  75  68  79  63  79 / 100  60  30   0   0
OCF  77  69  80  64  80 / 100  70  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...GA...AM...&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1157 AM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     STORM SURGE      1 NW FERNANDINA BEACH   30.67N 81.46W
11/10/2022                   NASSAU             FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE STATION
            ALONG THE AMELIA RIVER IN FERNANDINA BEACH
            RECORDED A PEAK WATER LEVEL OF 3.81 FEET
            ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW). MAJOR
            FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.5 FEET ABOVE MHHW. THIS
            IS THE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL SINCE HURRICANE
            MATTHEW IN OCTOBER 2016, WHEN THE WATER
            LEVEL AT THIS GAUGE PEAKED AT 4.13 FEET
            ABOVE MHHW.

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1158 AM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     STORM SURGE      2 NNE JEKYLL ISLAND     31.07N 81.40W
11/10/2022                   GLYNN              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BEACH CROSSOVER DESTROYED.

&&

SANDRIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1202 PM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 AM     STORM SURGE      2 NW MAYPORT            30.40N 81.43W
11/10/2022                   AMZ452             FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE STATION NEAR
            THE ENTRANCE OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT
            MAYPORT RECORDED A PEAK WATER LEVEL OF 3.58
            FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW).
            MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.3 FEET ABOVE
            MHHW. THIS IS HIGHER THAN THE PEAK WATER
            LEVEL OF 3.21 FEET ABOVE MHHW THAT WAS
            RECORDED DURING HURRICANE MATTHEW IN OCTOBER
            2016.

&&

NELSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1205 PM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     STORM SURGE      2 ENE BRUNSWICK         31.16N 81.46W
11/10/2022                   GLYNN              GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC PICTURE OF PUBLIC WORKS EQUIPMENT
            REMOVING DEBRIS FROM FJ TORRAS CAUSEWAY.
            WATER HAS SUBSIDED FROM ROADWAY IN THAT
            LOCATION BUT DEBRIS MANAGEMENT IS ONGOING.
            DO NOT ATTEMPT TO USE THE CAUSEWAY UNTIL
            CLEARED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

SANDRIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1209 PM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 PM     STORM SURGE      2 S SAINT MARYS         30.72N 81.55W
11/10/2022                   CAMDEN             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM SURGE FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN ST MARYS
            NEAR WATERFRONT. QUOTE: FLOODING NOT AT IRMA
            LEVELS BUT CLOSE. ADDITIONAL INFO: TWO
            BRIDGES CLOSED.

&&

SANDRIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1223 PM EST THU NOV 10 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     STORM SURGE      HAMMOCKS OF OAK LANDING 30.26N 81.43W
11/10/2022                   DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC

            SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING FROM ICWW
            WITH WATER NEAR HOMES AND IN LOW PORTIONS OF
            MARSH HAMMOCK DRIVE EAST. DEPTH IS GREATER
            THAN IAN, BUT LESS THAN IRMA. HIGH TIDE IS
            CURRENTLY ONGOING AT THIS LOCATION.

&&

SANDRIK