Tornado Warning 19, NWS Jacksonville, FL

880 
WWUS52 KJAX 151831
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
231 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

FLC031-089-151841-
/O.CAN.KJAX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-220515T1845Z/
Nassau FL-Duval FL-
231 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN NASSAU AND NORTHEASTERN DUVAL
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3040 8166 3044 8174 3062 8169 3048 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 213DEG 6KT 3051 8162 

$$

NELSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
130 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Scattered to numerous storms expected mainly inland rest of the aftn
with TEMPO group for MVFR to IFR with strong gusty winds. The
activity will wind down later this evening, with some low stratus
and fog possible at times but for now just for GNV and VQQ.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1001 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak northwesterly flow will develop over the region today as high
pressure moves off more to the east. Showers and storms will
develop in the afternoon, primarily occurring along the sea breeze
boundaries and areas of convergence and then dissipating later in
the evening. Most likely areas for convection will be for inland
areas in the vicinity of the I-75 corridor. Patchy early morning
fog developments will be primarily over portions of southeast
Georgia extending along the coast into Duval County and over the
Suwannee Valley area, which will then clear out before
midmorning. High temperatures today will reach up into the mid to
upper 80s for inland areas with locations along the coast reaching
into the lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down
into the 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave upper level trough will extend across NE FL Monday
morning with a dry slot over the area limiting rain chances
despite upper level forcing and instability associated with the
upper trough. Rain chances increase Monday afternoon as
prevailing westerly steering flow brings a dominant west coast sea
breeze across inland NE FL in the afternoon with a sea breeze
merger into the early evening between Highway 301 and I-95. A
second area of precipitation is expected to edge south across GA
into the afternoon as a stalling surface front approaches from the
NW. Severe storm potential will be rather limited given
increasing subsidence into Monday afternoon with a weak mid level
short wave ridge and warming temperatures aloft with the main
convective concern locally heavy rainfall given PWAT still above
normal in the 1.3-1.5 inch range and steering flow generally < 10
kts, but overall convective coverage will be more limited compared
to today. Monday night, a low chance of showers or a storm will
continue for SE GA as the frontal boundary gradually edges
southward. The lingering frontal zone across the area combined
with the sea breezes and a passing mid level short wave trough
Tuesday will increase rain chances across NE FL compared to
Monday. Indicated scattered showers and isolated storms Tuesday
afternoon and early evening for the I-10 and I-95 corridors where
boundary mergers are expected to coincide under the passing short
wave with PWAT remaining near to above climo in the 1.3-1.7 inch
range. There will be slightly stronger shear Tuesday afternoon
aloft which could bring a few stronger storms across the local
area, but overall the main convective concern will be locally
heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty wet downbursts due to heavy
precip loading.

Above normal temperatures warm a couple of degrees each day with
highs in the low 90s inland Monday afternoon to mid/upper 80s
coast, then Tuesday highs warm into the low/mid 90s inland to
upper 80s coast. Low temperatures will also remain warmer than
normal and range in the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...

Wed & Thu...Above normal temperatures and drier conditions with
less rainfall potential as an upper level ridge build over the
region and the surface ridge extends across south FL with a weak
surface trough across south GA. Steering flow will be weak and
southerly Wed which will enable both the west/east coast sea
breezes to drift inland with PWAT remaining above normal values,
but a dry layer between 700-500 mb will limit convective growth
and depth with only spotty showers likely for inland NE FL. By
Thursday, steering flow will transition to SSW and increasing to
10-15 kts as the upper level ridge shifts offshore of the FL east
coast. This will begin the return of moisture from the south, and
thus nudged up diurnally enhanced rain chances slightly across NE
FL into the afternoon. The main weather impact during these couple
of days will be the HOT temperatures under the upper level ridge
with highs in the low/mid 90s inland to near 90 along the coast by
Thursday. With dew pts temps in the upper 60s to near 70 degF,
some of our FL zones will experience heat index values in the
upper 90s to near 100 deg F.

Fri & Sat...Moisture continues to increase across the area from
the south as the upper level ridge shifts farther east and mean
layer tough begins to develop across the central CONUS and western
GOMEX into the weekend. PWAT rises well above normal values into
the 1.4 to 1.8 inch range with rain chances edging progressively
upward into the weekend and temperatures cooling back down into
the upper 80s with increased cloud cover and storminess.

.MARINE...

High pressure will be east of the region through Monday. A cold
front will move southeast into the region Monday night and stall
through Tuesday, before dissipating Tuesday night. High pressure
will be east southeast of the region Wednesday through Saturday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Monday
              NE FL Moderate through Monday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  65  90  67  91  66 /  20  30  20  30   0
SSI  71  85  70  86  69 /  20  20  10  30  10
JAX  67  90  68  92  68 /  30  20  10  30  10
SGJ  69  88  68  87  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
GNV  65  88  67  92  68 /  50  20  10  20  10
OCF  65  88  66  92  69 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
128 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

GAZ154-165-166-151815-
Inland Camden GA-Coastal Glynn GA-Coastal Camden GA-
128 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Camden
and south central Glynn Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 128 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Jekyll Island, or 7 miles southwest of Brunswick,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brunswick, Jekyll Island and Dover Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 8138 3089 8141 3081 8150 3103 8166
      3115 8150 3107 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 317DEG 6KT 3104 8153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
136 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

FLZ024-124-125-225-325-425-151815-
Western Duval FL-South Central Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-
Trout River FL-Coastal Duval FL-Coastal Nassau FL-
136 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Nassau and
northeastern Duval Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 136 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cisco Gardens, or near Jacksonville International Arpt, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Jacksonville International Arpt, Oceanway, Cisco
Gardens and Nassau Village-Ratliff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 8171 3032 8180 3038 8186 3063 8176
      3050 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 212DEG 7KT 3041 8175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SHASHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     TORNADO          1 WSW OCEANWAY          30.46N 81.65W
05/15/2022                   DUVAL              FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TORNADO SPOTTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE NEAR I-295
            AND I-295. PERSON DID NOT SEE THE BASE BUT
            DID SUSPECT IT TOUCHED THE GROUND.

&&

RN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
157 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

FLZ033-038-137-151830-
Inland Flagler FL-Eastern Putnam FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
157 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Flagler, south central St. Johns and northeastern Putnam Counties
through 230 PM EDT...

At 156 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Mateo, or 7 miles south of Hastings, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hastings, East Palatka, Orange Mills, Federal Point, San Mateo and
Spuds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2954 8137 2953 8157 2976 8163 2977 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 177DEG 19KT 2962 8148

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SHASHY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
202 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             4 ENE OCEANWAY          30.50N 81.57W
05/15/2022  E0.25 INCH       DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY GENERAL PUBLIC.

&&

RN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE JACKSONVILLE INTER 30.50N 81.68W
05/15/2022  M53 MPH          DUVAL              FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KJAX JACKSONVILLE INTL AIRPORT.

&&

RN