Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
130 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Scattered to numerous storms expected mainly inland rest of the aftn
with TEMPO group for MVFR to IFR with strong gusty winds. The
activity will wind down later this evening, with some low stratus
and fog possible at times but for now just for GNV and VQQ.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1001 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak northwesterly flow will develop over the region today as high
pressure moves off more to the east. Showers and storms will
develop in the afternoon, primarily occurring along the sea breeze
boundaries and areas of convergence and then dissipating later in
the evening. Most likely areas for convection will be for inland
areas in the vicinity of the I-75 corridor. Patchy early morning
fog developments will be primarily over portions of southeast
Georgia extending along the coast into Duval County and over the
Suwannee Valley area, which will then clear out before
midmorning. High temperatures today will reach up into the mid to
upper 80s for inland areas with locations along the coast reaching
into the lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down
into the 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave upper level trough will extend across NE FL Monday
morning with a dry slot over the area limiting rain chances
despite upper level forcing and instability associated with the
upper trough. Rain chances increase Monday afternoon as
prevailing westerly steering flow brings a dominant west coast sea
breeze across inland NE FL in the afternoon with a sea breeze
merger into the early evening between Highway 301 and I-95. A
second area of precipitation is expected to edge south across GA
into the afternoon as a stalling surface front approaches from the
NW. Severe storm potential will be rather limited given
increasing subsidence into Monday afternoon with a weak mid level
short wave ridge and warming temperatures aloft with the main
convective concern locally heavy rainfall given PWAT still above
normal in the 1.3-1.5 inch range and steering flow generally < 10
kts, but overall convective coverage will be more limited compared
to today. Monday night, a low chance of showers or a storm will
continue for SE GA as the frontal boundary gradually edges
southward. The lingering frontal zone across the area combined
with the sea breezes and a passing mid level short wave trough
Tuesday will increase rain chances across NE FL compared to
Monday. Indicated scattered showers and isolated storms Tuesday
afternoon and early evening for the I-10 and I-95 corridors where
boundary mergers are expected to coincide under the passing short
wave with PWAT remaining near to above climo in the 1.3-1.7 inch
range. There will be slightly stronger shear Tuesday afternoon
aloft which could bring a few stronger storms across the local
area, but overall the main convective concern will be locally
heavy rainfall and possibly some gusty wet downbursts due to heavy
precip loading.

Above normal temperatures warm a couple of degrees each day with
highs in the low 90s inland Monday afternoon to mid/upper 80s
coast, then Tuesday highs warm into the low/mid 90s inland to
upper 80s coast. Low temperatures will also remain warmer than
normal and range in the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday]...

Wed & Thu...Above normal temperatures and drier conditions with
less rainfall potential as an upper level ridge build over the
region and the surface ridge extends across south FL with a weak
surface trough across south GA. Steering flow will be weak and
southerly Wed which will enable both the west/east coast sea
breezes to drift inland with PWAT remaining above normal values,
but a dry layer between 700-500 mb will limit convective growth
and depth with only spotty showers likely for inland NE FL. By
Thursday, steering flow will transition to SSW and increasing to
10-15 kts as the upper level ridge shifts offshore of the FL east
coast. This will begin the return of moisture from the south, and
thus nudged up diurnally enhanced rain chances slightly across NE
FL into the afternoon. The main weather impact during these couple
of days will be the HOT temperatures under the upper level ridge
with highs in the low/mid 90s inland to near 90 along the coast by
Thursday. With dew pts temps in the upper 60s to near 70 degF,
some of our FL zones will experience heat index values in the
upper 90s to near 100 deg F.

Fri & Sat...Moisture continues to increase across the area from
the south as the upper level ridge shifts farther east and mean
layer tough begins to develop across the central CONUS and western
GOMEX into the weekend. PWAT rises well above normal values into
the 1.4 to 1.8 inch range with rain chances edging progressively
upward into the weekend and temperatures cooling back down into
the upper 80s with increased cloud cover and storminess.

.MARINE...

High pressure will be east of the region through Monday. A cold
front will move southeast into the region Monday night and stall
through Tuesday, before dissipating Tuesday night. High pressure
will be east southeast of the region Wednesday through Saturday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Monday
              NE FL Moderate through Monday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  65  90  67  91  66 /  20  30  20  30   0
SSI  71  85  70  86  69 /  20  20  10  30  10
JAX  67  90  68  92  68 /  30  20  10  30  10
SGJ  69  88  68  87  69 /  20  20  10  20  10
GNV  65  88  67  92  68 /  50  20  10  20  10
OCF  65  88  66  92  69 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE JACKSONVILLE INTER 30.50N 81.68W
05/15/2022  M53 MPH          DUVAL              FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KJAX JACKSONVILLE INTL AIRPORT.

&&

RN

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