Tornado Warning 15, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
838 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Friday]

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the
northeast FL terminals through around 21Z. We have included tempo
groups for gusty winds and IFR to MVFR visibilities during heavier
downpours. Ceilings will primarily remain MVFR through around 21Z,
but could briefly drop to IFR within heavier thunderstorms as they
pass over the terminal. VFR conditions should prevail at SSI
through around 15Z, followed by a brief round of convection around
or just after 16Z that could produce MVFR conditions and briefly
gusty winds. Outside of thunderstorm activity, southwesterly
surface winds will increase to 10-15 knots by 14Z, with occasional
gusts of 20-25 knots expected through around 20Z. Ceilings will
lift to VFR as convection departs SSI by 19Z and elsewhere by 22Z.
Surface winds will shift to west or west-southwesterly around 10
knots by 22Z, followed by speeds decreasing to 5-10 knots after
00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [755 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through This Evening]...

Prefrontal trough which has driven the overnight and early morning
convection will move southeast of the forecast area late this
morning. The best support for severe storms is with this trough. The
surface cold front has moved into SE GA, and will continue to move
southeast across region through the day. The front will push to the
SE of area around sunset.

Two areas of convection to follow Today. First is the activity on
the prefrontal trough, which will continue to produce bands of heavy
rain, and potential for isolated strong to severe storms. As the
cold front moves in, it will have the potential to produce a few
strong storms, but much of the energy associated with this overall
system will push south with the prefrontal trough. If there is
enough of a gap between the precipitation with the trough, and the
front the area could destabilize enough for stronger convection with
the front.

Clouds will decrease from the northwest to southeast following the
cold front, with inland areas having a mainly sunny mid to late
afternoon.

Noticeably drier air will advect in behind front as well, with
dewpoints well inland falling from the upper 60s this morning, to
the upper 40s by sunset.

Temperatures will be near steady through the afternoon over much of
the area. For southeastern counties the cloud cover and rain will
keep readings from climbing much higher. For northwestern counties,
the front will bring a cooler airmass, but the sunshine will help to
keep readings up.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Upper level trough will remain over the region Friday with trof
axis shifting east of the region Saturday as upstream upper
level ridge builds over the central CONUS. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure slides from western GOM Friday into eastern Gulf
Saturday and into the Florida peninsula Saturday night.

As a result, breezy cooler and sunny conditions will prevail
Friday and Saturday as the pressure gradient across the
Southeast. With drier air in place and breezy winds, elevated fire
danger conditions may be possible Friday afternoon with min RH
values in the 25 to 35 percent range north of I-10. Winds will
decrease slightly overnight, but pick up again after sunrise on
Saturday. Highs Friday will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and
lows will range from the lower 40s to the lower 50s Friday night.
On Saturday, breezy WNW winds will continue. Elevated fire danger
conditions will be possible again Saturday afternoon with RH
values 25 to 35 percent range area wide. Highs will be even cooler
Saturday with highs in mid to upper 60s west of highway 301, and
in the upper 60s to lower 70s east of highway 301. Good nocturnal
cool down Saturday night with light west winds leading to minimums
in the 40s inland, to lower 50s along the First Coast.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

High pressure will move overhead on Sunday, then shift to the
northeast into the Atlantic early next week. Dry weather is
expected through the long term period with only slight chances of
showers starting to nudge into the western edge of our forecast
area Wednesday night with isolated to widely scattered showers and
Thursday as onshore flow the next frontal system approaches.
Temperatures will gradually warm up through the end of the period
thanks to southeasterly onshore flow.

.MARINE...

A cold front will approach from the northwest this morning then
move across the waters late this afternoon. Showers and storms
will be possible Today, some storms may be severe with damaging
winds and hail. Elevated winds and seas are expected as the cold
front passes and Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for
the offshore waters through tonight and will likely need to be
extended through the weekend with gale force wind gusts possible.
Gusty winds are expected to develop behind the front Tonight
through Saturday as high pressure builds over the Gulf. High
pressure will move overhead on Sunday, and winds will diminish.
High pressure will shift to the northeast early next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rips expected through the weekend in the
strong offshore flow. Surf/Breakers 1 to 2 feet or less.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...

A cold front will continue to progress southeast through the
region today with scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected this morning ahead of this feature for coastal Georgia
and northeast Florida. Some storms may be severe with the main
hazards being damaging winds and hail. Precipitation chances will
end from north to south as the front progresses, ending for SE GA
by early afternoon and NE FL by early evening. Behind the front,
skies will clear and drier, cooler air will filter into the
region. Dry and breezy conditions behind the front will lead to
near critical fire weather conditions north of I-10 Friday and
across all of SE GA and NE FL Saturday. Min RH values will be
between 25 to 35 percent north of I-10 on Friday, and 25 to 35
percent all the region Saturday.

.HYDROLOGY...

Locally heavy rainfall potential will continue to mainly impact
urban areas for flood concerns, since prior to frontal passage the
local area has missed out on most of the heavy rainfall from this
system. Local river basins like the Santa Fe, St Marys and Suwannee
will likely see some more river rises. Overall rainfall totals
will be in the 1-2 inch range with isolated 3-4 inch totals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  76  47  70  42  63 /  50   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  53  73  50  69 /  60   0   0   0   0
JAX  81  52  73  49  70 /  80   0   0   0   0
SGJ  82  54  73  52  71 /  90  10   0   0   0
GNV  79  50  72  46  70 /  80   0   0   0   0
OCF  80  51  72  49  71 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

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