Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
359 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A cold front over our area currently stretching from coastal Glynn
county to Suwannee county will continue to shift southeastward
and exit the area tonight. Scattered showers and storms continue
to develop along the frontal boundary. Some storms will be strong
with the best chance over the I-95 corridor in northeast Florida.
These storms could be capable of producing gusty winds, hail and
brief downpours. Showers and storms will shift southeastward
through northeast Florida and come to an end this evening. Cool,
dry air filters in behind the front with dewpoints already
dropping into the 40s for portions of southeast Georgia. Clear
skies tonight with lows below normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

An upper level trough over the eastern CONUS and its trough axis
over the area on Friday will shift eastward of the region on
Saturday as an upstream upper level ridge builds over the central
CONUS. Surface high pressure will build into the western Gulf of
Mexico on Friday, then shift into the eastern Gulf on Saturday
and into the Florida peninsula Saturday night. Continued west-
northwest flow will maintain the cool and dry airmass over the
area. Breezy winds will develop each day with a tight pressure
gradient in place. Despite sunny skies, highs will be below normal
in the mid 60s to low 70s. There is a potential for Alma, GA to
set a new daily record low maximum temperature on Saturday. Clear
skies and subsiding winds overnight will promote radiational
cooling dropping overnight lows into low 40s to low 50s Friday
night and upper 30s to upper 40s Saturday night.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure will move overhead on Sunday, then shift to the
east-northeast into the western Atlantic early next week. Dry
weather is expected through the long term period with only slight
chances of showers starting to nudge into the western edge of our
forecast area Wednesday night as the next frontal system
approaches. Temperatures will gradually warm up to well above
normal through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible at the Duval County
terminals and SGJ through around 21Z. We have included TEMPO
groups during that time period for JAX, CRG and SGJ for gusty
winds and MVFR conditions. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will lift to
VFR by 23Z at the regional terminals. Outside of showers and
thunderstorms, gusty southwesterly surface winds will continue
through around 22Z, with sustained speeds around 15 knots and
occasional gusts of 25-30 knots. Surface winds will then shift to
westerly and will subside to 5-10 knots after 00Z. Surface winds
will shift to west-northwesterly towards sunrise on Friday, with
surface speeds increasing to 10-15 knots before 15Z, with gusts in
excess of 20 knots possible after 16Z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will exit the coastal waters tonight bringing an end
to showers and thunderstorms. Small craft advisory conditions for
the offshore waters continue through tonight with the frontal
passage. Breezy winds develop over the waters behind the front
potentially bringing another round of small craft advisory conditions
Friday night into Saturday. High pressure builds in over the
region from the Gulf of Mexico late Saturday into Sunday. Winds
subside Sunday. High pressure will shift to the northeast early
next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rips expected through the weekend with
the strong offshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  47  70  43  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  73  51  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JAX  53  73  48  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SGJ  55  73  53  72  48 /  20   0   0   0   0
GNV  51  71  48  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
OCF  51  72  49  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT THU APR 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             3 SSW FORT CAROLINE     30.35N 81.51W
04/07/2022  E0.50 INCH       DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC

&&

PK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
421 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

FLZ125-232-325-425-072045-
Western Clay FL-Western Duval FL-South Central Duval FL-
Coastal Duval FL-
421 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Clay
and central Duval Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arlington, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Unf, Arlington, Neptune Beach, Ortega, Craig Field, San
Pablo, Little Talbot Island, Fort Caroline and Cecil Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 8190 3022 8202 3047 8140 3030 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 249DEG 31KT 3033 8159

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CORLESS

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