Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1144 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions prevail at TAF sites this morning
as a cold front is poised to drop southeast across the area.
Showers and thunderstorms are occuring and expect this to continue
through the afternoon hours, before ending late this afternoon or
early evening. A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions will continue this
afternoon, but expect most sites to become MVFR/IFR later this
evening into the overnight hours. Southerly winds will become
northwesterly and gusty behind the front later this afternoon
into the evening hours./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An MCV is currently located over the central portions of the area
and moving northeast. A cold front extends from Northern
Mississippi into Northeast Texas and will continue to drop
southeast through the area this morning through the afternoon
hours. Showers/thunderstorms are occuring as the MCV moves
northeastward this morning, but there could be some redevelopment
early this afternoon as the front moves southeast across the area.
A couple of the storms could be strong to severe through the
afternoon hours, mainly for areas south of I-20. A slight risk is
already being advertised in the HWO/Graphicasts for these
areas. Made a few adjustments to pops/wx, but other than that the
forecast is on track./15/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight...
Deep southwesterly flow at the surface and in the mid levels is
pushing warmer air and plenty of moisture into the southeastern
CONUS this morning. An upper level trough is digging into the
eastern half of the country, with a cold front approaching the
region from the NW. An additional wave/surface low over LA/TX is
moving eastward as well. Models have been handling the evolution
of this particular system poorly for the last few runs. However,
the confidence is increasing to at least a conditional marginal
risk for severe weather. Latest few runs of the HRRR have been
hinting at possibly two rounds as the upper wave/sfc low develops
convection just ahead of the front. The most recent has them more
or less phasing over the forecast area. In this discontinuity lies
the bulk of the problems. Previously, the severe threat was
significantly mitigated by the mass of precip (and its duration)
in advance of the frontal boundary, making the soundings less
impressive across the board. However, with the latest run, the
timing is a little different, with some of the early convection
slowing, but the front dropping in midday to assist in focusing
the ongoing storms, and driving it into at least moderately more
unstable air. Even without the stronger CAPE values realized, the
shear profiles are looking more favorable with 0-6km shear in the
30-40kt range, some veering in the low levels, and better winds
aloft to help support any of the stronger convection that
develops...but those winds aloft are also expected to move out of
the region this afternoon as the better instability meets up with
the convection along the front. Helicity values out ahead of the
boundary are also in the 200-300 m2s2 range. Though damaging wind
gusts may be the leading concern, tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As
in recent events...for almost every parameter in favor of severe
storm development, there's a caveat that goes with it. With plenty
of complications in place, expect the threat to remain marginal,
but the shear in place will support rotation in stronger storms.

Monday through Saturday...
Monday through Midweek: Dry and seasonable weather will prevail
over the first half of the new work week. Tuesday morning looks to
be the coldest point of the week for most locations given the
most favorable radiational cooling conditions as the surface ridge
axis shift across the region. It will still be rather chilly
Wednesday morning as well, but with clouds expected to increase
through the night, this will disrupt cooling. By Wednesday, we'll
be on the return flow side of the surface high with gradual
moderation of the airmass ensuing through the remainder of the
work week.

Late week: Guidance remains inconsistent with our next weather
system, though it there remains a theme of trending a bit later,
with the best rain chances now in the Friday/Saturday time frame.
For now, we aren't expecting much in the way of instability with
this system, so no thunder is included in the forecast at this time.
/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  34  53  30 /  91  16   0   0
Meridian      71  34  52  29 /  91  32   0   0
Vicksburg     74  32  51  29 /  83  12   0   0
Hattiesburg   75  40  55  30 /  76  43   0   0
Natchez       75  34  53  31 /  88  17   0   0
Greenville    69  29  48  28 /  92   6   0   0
Greenwood     69  29  50  28 /  92   8   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
712 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-101315-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Washington-Humphreys-
712 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

LAZ009-015-016-023-MSZ031>033-036>042-047-101315-
East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Warren-
712 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Today, isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts are possible today. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

LAZ024>026-MSZ043>045-048>050-053-054-059-060-101315-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-
712 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at
least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ046-051-052-055>058-061>066-072>074-101315-
Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
712 AM CST Sun Jan 9 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Today

Mainly today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and
hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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