Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1248 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
A line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
the region through today with a second round expected late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Visibility will be reduced at times and
low cloud decks will settle in late tonight while +SHRA/VCTS moves
in. Sites will bounce around from VFR, MVFR, and IFR. Winds will
become gusty at times up to 25kts as storms push through. Rain and
storms will be east of the region by the end of the TAF period
and VFR conditions will return./JNE/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A line of storms is currently moving through the western and
central potions of Mississippi. Showers and storms will continue
to push east across the region throughout the day today. While
the better instability is south of I-20 right now, as the day
progresses, the instability will become more widespread. A few
storms have been able to become more surface based and produce
some good wind with it prompting severe thunderstorms. Because
this activity is kicking off earlier, SPC has upgraded much of our
area to a Slight Risk and has issued a Severe Thunder Storm Watch
until 5pm for much of the region. With the amount of moisture and
instability already out there (70+ dew points and up to 3000j/kg
CAPE) as we begin to heat up during the afternoon, storms are
expected to continue to develop along outflow boundaries and feed
off this instability. A few storms may produce pockets of good
wind energy along with embedded bowing segments and for that
reason, tornadoes can't be ruled out as these storms push across
this morning and afternoon. Some storms may produce heavy
downpours resulting in localized flash flooding especially across
the south. Will continue the current Flash Flood Watch, between
3-5 inches of rain will be possible through tomorrow morning.
/JNE/KP/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight:

A low pressure system continues to rotate over the High Plains
early this morning, with several shortwaves rippling out ahead of
it in the upper-level flow. Generally warm and humid conditions
persist across our forecast area downstream of this low pressure
system, and each impulse will trigger another round of showers and
storms to move through the area. Looking at MRMS estimated
rainfall amounts, a fairly broad average of 0.5 to 1.0 inches of
rain has fallen across our forecast area in the last 24 hours,
with pockets of 2+ inches scattered about. Generally higher
amounts over the last few days have been focused closer to the
Gulf Coast, where model guidance suggest the best chances for
additional higher amounts to be focused today into Thursday
morning. Therefore, have updated our Hazardous Weather Outlook
text and graphics to included an Elevated threat for flash
flooding from Catahoula and Concordia Parishes in LA east through
Jones County in MS. A Flood Watch has also been issued for those
areas for possible flash flooding through about Noon on Thursday.
With these lines of storms expected to move through with modest
instability and wind shear in place, a Marginal Risk for severe
storms will continue through tonight as well. Damaging wind gusts
and small hail are the expected hazards with any strong to severe
storms. By late tonight into early tomorrow morning, a cold front
associated with a more pronounced shortwave pivoting across the
Gulf Coast region will bring steadily drying air and an end to
heavy rain chances for northeast LA and southeast AR by
sunrise. /NF/

Thursday through next Tuesday:

The period of wet weather will come to an end across the forecast
area through mid-afternoon Thursday. Showers and isolated storms
will exit east of the forecast area during this time. During the
evening hours Thursday, the cold front itself will make its way
east into and through the CWA, with high pressure building into
the region in its wake.

Slightly cooler drier air will filter into the region Thursday night
into Friday.  Fortunately, a return to quieter weather will exist
Friday into early next week, thus giving the area a chance to dry
out. Unfortunately, the slightly cooler drier conditions will come
to an end late in the Memorial Day weekend into next week.  During
this time, humidity levels will again creep up, with highs climbing
back into the 90s. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  65  80  59 /  92 100  14   1
Meridian      80  66  82  59 /  94 100  54   2
Vicksburg     80  64  82  60 /  95  85   5   1
Hattiesburg   81  67  82  60 /  92 100  54   2
Natchez       79  64  82  60 /  96  88   5   0
Greenville    77  64  77  59 /  93  71   8   1
Greenwood     79  65  78  59 /  95  96  13   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ060>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for LAZ024-026.

AR...None.

&&

NF/JNE/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
853 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-MSZ018-261400-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-Richland-Bolivar-
853 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
gusts and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday morning,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for possible flash flooding will continue into mid
morning Thursday, with chances for heavy rain expected to end
from west to east through the morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ009-016-023-025-MSZ019-025>058-261400-
East Carroll-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-
853 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado can't be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday morning,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for possible flash flooding will continue into mid
morning Thursday, with chances for heavy rain expected to end
from west to east through the morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-261400-
Catahoula-Concordia-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
853 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado can't be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday morning,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for possible flash flooding will continue into mid
morning Thursday, with chances for heavy rain expected to end
from west to east through the morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE CRYSTAL SPRINGS    32.01N 90.33W
05/25/2022                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE OF TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG
            DIDLAKE ROAD.

&&

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1253 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W WESSON              31.71N 90.45W
05/25/2022                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ALONG I-55 SOUTHBOUND
            AND BLOCKED BOTH SOUTHBOUND LANES. THIS
            OCCURRED BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 48 AND 51.

&&

JC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>