Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
714 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

.UPDATE...

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF discussion:

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
across the forecast area through the TAF period. Periods of
reduced visibility and impacts from TSRA are expected, as well as
periods of MVFR or lower ceilings. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight:

A low pressure system continues to rotate over the High Plains
early this morning, with several shortwaves rippling out ahead of
it in the upper-level flow. Generally warm and humid conditions
persist across our forecast area downstream of this low pressure
system, and each impulse will trigger another round of showers and
storms to move through the area. Looking at MRMS estimated
rainfall amounts, a fairly broad average of 0.5 to 1.0 inches of
rain has fallen across our forecast area in the last 24 hours,
with pockets of 2+ inches scattered about. Generally higher
amounts over the last few days have been focused closer to the
Gulf Coast, where model guidance suggest the best chances for
additional higher amounts to be focused today into Thursday
morning. Therefore, have updated our Hazardous Weather Outlook
text and graphics to included an Elevated threat for flash
flooding from Catahoula and Concordia Parishes in LA east through
Jones County in MS. A Flood Watch has also been issued for those
areas for possible flash flooding through about Noon on Thursday.
With these lines of storms expected to move through with modest
instability and wind shear in place, a Marginal Risk for severe
storms will continue through tonight as well. Damaging wind gusts
and small hail are the expected hazards with any strong to severe
storms. By late tonight into early tomorrow morning, a cold front
associated with a more pronounced shortwave pivoting across the
Gulf Coast region will bring steadily drying air and an end to
heavy rain chances for northeast LA and southeast AR by
sunrise. /NF/

Thursday through next Tuesday:

The period of wet weather will come to an end across the forecast
area through mid-afternoon Thursday. Showers and isolated storms
will exit east of the forecast area during this time. During the
evening hours Thursday, the cold front itself will make its way
east into and through the CWA, with high pressure building into
the region in its wake.

Slightly cooler drier air will filter into the region Thursday night
into Friday.  Fortunately, a return to quieter weather will exist
Friday into early next week, thus giving the area a chance to dry
out. Unfortunately, the slightly cooler drier conditions will come
to an end late in the Memorial Day weekend into next week.  During
this time, humidity levels will again creep up, with highs climbing
back into the 90s. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  65  80  59 /  92 100  14   3
Meridian      84  66  82  59 /  94 100  54   4
Vicksburg     84  64  82  60 /  95  85   5   2
Hattiesburg   84  67  82  60 /  92 100  54   3
Natchez       83  64  82  60 /  96  88   5   1
Greenville    80  64  77  59 /  93  71   8   3
Greenwood     83  65  78  59 /  95  96  13   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ060>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for LAZ024-026.

AR...None.

&&

06/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
853 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-MSZ018-261400-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-Richland-Bolivar-
853 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today
into tonight. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
gusts and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday morning,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for possible flash flooding will continue into mid
morning Thursday, with chances for heavy rain expected to end
from west to east through the morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ009-016-023-025-MSZ019-025>058-261400-
East Carroll-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-
853 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado can't be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday morning,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for possible flash flooding will continue into mid
morning Thursday, with chances for heavy rain expected to end
from west to east through the morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-261400-
Catahoula-Concordia-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
853 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible today into tonight. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado can't be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through Thursday morning,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The threat for possible flash flooding will continue into mid
morning Thursday, with chances for heavy rain expected to end
from west to east through the morning.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
841 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

MSZ056-251415-
Smith MS-
841 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Smith
County through 915 AM CDT...

At 841 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burns, or 17 miles northeast of Magee, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Burns around 850 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Polkville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8965 3201 8965 3205 8966 3205 8970
      3208 8973 3222 8973 3222 8932 3221 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1341Z 222DEG 22KT 3210 8960

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
850 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

ARZ074-LAZ007-008-015-251415-
Ashley AR-Richland LA-Morehouse LA-West Carroll LA-
850 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Ashley
County, eastern Morehouse, northeastern Richland and West Carroll
Parishes through 915 AM CDT...

At 850 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Galion to near Holly Ridge. Movement was
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Jones and Galion around 855 AM CDT.
  Wilmot around 905 AM CDT.
  Parkdale and Darnell around 910 AM CDT.
  Portland and Goodwill around 915 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Forest, Bonita, Mer
Rouge, Pioneer, Oak Ridge and Epps.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 9161 3334 9146 3302 9146 3269 9138
      3268 9140 3261 9140 3258 9145 3257 9144
      3240 9160 3239 9167 3234 9172 3291 9189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 206DEG 46KT 3291 9177 3245 9166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
909 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

LAZ023>025-251445-
Tensas LA-Catahoula LA-Franklin LA-
909 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Tensas,
northeastern Catahoula and southeastern Franklin Parishes through 945
AM CDT...

At 909 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Newlight to Clayton.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Newlight around 920 AM CDT.
  Cooter Point around 925 AM CDT.
  Helena around 930 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Gilbert and Sicily
Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3218 9167 3221 9155 3220 9132 3222 9130
      3186 9132 3184 9135 3175 9138 3175 9154
      3172 9155 3176 9160 3173 9163 3173 9166
      3184 9170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1409Z 221DEG 34KT 3205 9153 3174 9153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DC

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