Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Lincoln, IL

410 
WWUS53 KILX 012211
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
511 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

ILC025-101-159-012300-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-220801T2300Z/
Lawrence-Richland-Clay-
511 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR LAWRENCE...RICHLAND AND EASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

At 510 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Sumner to near Claremont to near Noble, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Sumner, Lawrenceville, Parkersburg and St. Francisville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 8816 3860 8831 3885 8841 3884 8811
      3885 8776 3874 8751 3868 8754 3866 8760
      3861 8762 3859 8761 3859 8764 3857 8765
      3857 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 324DEG 21KT 3875 8781 3869 8801 3866 8816 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Barnes

642 
WWUS53 KILX 012253
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
553 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

ILC025-101-159-012302-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-220801T2300Z/
Lawrence-Richland-Clay-
553 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LAWRENCE...RICHLAND AND
EASTERN CLAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However hail, 
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with additional 
thunderstorms that are developing and moving across the area.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3860 8816 3860 8831 3885 8841 3884 8811
      3885 8776 3874 8751 3868 8754 3866 8760
      3861 8762 3859 8761 3859 8764 3857 8765
      3857 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 325DEG 21KT 3855 8764 3850 8784 3847 8799 

$$

Barnes

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
359 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Summertime heat and humidity will persist over the next week, with
the hottest day of the period coming on Wednesday when afternoon
temperatures reach into the mid 90s and heat index values surge
into the triple digits. This heat and humidity will be
accompanied by near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may be strong-to-severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

A frontal boundary, currently extending from Jacksonville-to-
Robinson, will provide the focus for thunderstorms this evening
across portions of south central Illinois. Some of these storms
may become severe given the current parameter space. The latest
19z RAP analysis depicts MLCAPE values exceeding 4500 J/k along
and ahead of the front with deep-layer shear around 40 kts.
Modeled soundings reveal an uncapped environment ahead of the
front, while hodographs reveal a long straight wind profile. This
points to a few organized multi-cells capable of producing
damaging wind and hail. The tornado threat is low, but stranger
things have happended near a boundary. Storms will likely wane by
02z/9pm with the loss of daytime heating.

Attention then turns toward the overnight period as the surface
front begins to waffle northward near the I-74 corridor. Eyes will
need to be over E Nebraska and W Iowa tonight to see if an MCS
develops ahead of a mid-level shortwave and modest LLJ. If it
does, and afternoon CAM guidance currently provides little help
at this point, it will almost certainly ride the instability
(theta-e) axis into central Illinois. Shear/CAPE profiles support
MCS maintenance, but a robustly stable near-sfc layer could
mitigate a severe/damaging wind threat. Rather, it could be a nice
rainmaker for us in central Illinois, with QPF values ranging from
a few tenths, while localized values could exceed an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs
expected to be in the low to middle 90s. Heat indices will make it
feel warmer than that though with values looking to range between
100-110. A Heat Advisory may be needed for most of the area on
Wednesday. However an approaching cold front may throw a wrench in
this as cloud cover and precipitation chances increase from
northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon into evening. The front
looks to slowly sag southward through the area bringing
widespread precipitation chances and even the threat for some
severe weather Wednesday evening. A good soaking rain appears
likely for much of the area, which is very much needed especially
in parts of eastern IL where drought conditions continue.

Temperatures for the end of the week will be a little cooler due to
ongoing precipitation as the front slowly works through the area.
Another bout of heat is possible this weekend as upper ridging
builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Breezy westerly winds will diminish after sunset, becoming light
and variable overnight. Scattered thunderstorms will develop late
in the TAF period (beyond 06z), especially in the vicinity of
PIA/SPI/DEC, perhaps reducing flight categories from VFR to MVFR
where rain becomes heavy. We have begun mentioning VCSH and VCTS
at some of the terminals with this TAF package, with better
precision expected with the 00z suite of aviation products.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MJA
SHORT TERM...MJA
LONG TERM...MJA/NMB
AVIATION...MJA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

ILZ027>029-036-037-040>042-047>052-061>063-066>068-071>073-021100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-
Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms are possible through early evening in
southeast IL, and overnight across west central IL. Some of these
storms could be strong to severe in southeast IL through sunset, and
from Peoria and Springfield west overnight. Damaging winds being the
main threat. Hail, heavy rain, and lightning will also be threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dangerous heat will build into the region through Wednesday with
daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s today and
Tuesday, and low to mid 90s Wednesday. Heat index values will be 95
to 105 this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon and 105 to 110 Wednesday
afternoon. Heat indices will reach around 100 degrees Saturday and
Sunday afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, with a few strong storms
possible from highway 50 south. Additional thunderstorm are forecast
from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Some of
these may be strong to severe from I-55 northwest late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night along with locally heavy rains
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in southeast IL through sunset
today, and over west central IL overnight from 1 to 7 am.

ILZ030-031-038-043>046-053>057-021100-
Marshall-Woodford-McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Macon-
Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight. The
threat of severe storms is low at this time, but locally heavy rain
is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Dangerous heat will build into central Illinois through Wednesday,
with daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s today and
Tuesday and in the low to mid 90s Wednesday. Heat index values
peaking 95 to 100 this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, should reach
105 to 110 Wednesday afternoon. Heat indices will reach around 100
degrees Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast for Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday evening. Some of these may be strong to severe
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from I-55 northwest along
with locally heavy rains possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
335 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ARGENTA                 39.98N 88.82W
08/01/2022                   MACON              IL   PUBLIC

            THREE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AND A GAZEBO WAS
            TOSSED ONTO THE ROOF OF A HOUSE, CAUSING
            DAMAGE TO THE ROOF.

&&

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
337 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             EFFINGHAM               39.12N 88.54W
08/01/2022  E0.75 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
430 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             DIETERICH               39.06N 88.38W
08/01/2022  M1.25 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT RELAYED FROM BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
449 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             3 NW BOGOTA             38.94N 88.28W
08/01/2022  M1.00 INCH       JASPER             IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORT NEAR NEWTON POWER
            STATION. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&