Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
335 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

A cold front will sag into the area today, bringing the threat for
scattered strong to severe storms later this afternoon and evening
south of I-72. Scattered storm chances look to continue overnight
into Tuesday. Warmer temperatures arrive today onward with extreme
heat developing by midweek. Additional chances for storms return
later Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Surface analysis this morning depicts a warm front north-northeast
of the area. An upper shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes
Region this morning will send a cold front into the area which is
presently positioned from roughly northern Illinois into southern
Iowa. The front will sag south throughout the day, likely
slowing/stalling out somewhere along the I-72 corridor by this
afternoon. A few storms are ongoing ahead of it this morning with
the LLJ supporting a few strong to severe storms as well. This
activity will continue through this morning mainly along and north
of I-74, weakening with the loss of the LLJ in a few hours.

Much warmer temperatures are expected today with values in the upper
80s to low 90s. Heat indices across southeast Illinois will easily
touch 100 or slightly higher this afternoon. Additional chances for
storms are possible south of the front later this afternoon into
evening with the area of focus being south of I-72. Models continue
to peg instability of 3-4k J/kg and bulk shear between 35-40 kts.
Any capping will quickly erode by this afternoon as a subtle
shortwave trough sinks southeast across the state, interacting with
the cold front. Although CAMs are not too excited about this across
the forecast area, the potential for organized storm development
appears possible given the aforementioned environmental parameters.
Any strong to severe storms will be capable of damaging winds and
hail. PWATs up to 2" and storm motion somewhat parallel to the front
may result in locally heavy rainfall as well.

Scattered storm chances look to continue overnight tonight into
Tuesday as the LLJ and a few weak upper disturbances sliding through
northwest flow aloft interact with the frontal boundary. The front
will gradually lift back northward as a warm front later on Tuesday
as upper ridging migrates eastward. Tuesday will be warm once again,
though the frontal boundary and scattered storms may keep
temperatures a little cooler than currently projected. Due to this
uncertainty, elected to hold off from issuing any heat headlines at
this time, though they may be needed for some. Precipitation should
come to an end by Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

Southerly surface flow and rising mid-level heights will keep the
heat around through midweek. In fact, Wednesday looks to be the
warmest day of the week with highs expected to be in the low to
middle 90s. Heat indices will make it feel warmer than that
though with values looking to range between 100-110. A Heat
Advisory may be needed for most of the area on Wednesday. However
an approaching cold front may throw a wrench in this as cloud
cover and precipitation chances increase from northwest to
southeast Wednesday afternoon into evening. The front looks to
slowly sag southward through the area bringing widespread
precipitation chances and even the threat for some severe weather
Wednesday evening. A good soaking rain appears likely for much of
the area, which is very much needed especially in parts of eastern
IL where drought conditions continue.

Temperatures for the end of the week will be a little cooler due to
ongoing precipitation as the front slowly works through the area.
Another bout of heat is possible this weekend as upper ridging
builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

A chance of showers and thunderstorms looks to develop from 08Z-
11Z until 13Z-15Z across the central IL terminals. Otherwise, VFR
conditions conditions are expected for most of the period,
although some isolated MVFR cigs are possible through the night,
as are some isolated MVFR cigs/vsbys with any thunderstorms
Monday morning. Additional thunderstorms could develop late
afternoon and evening, although chances appear too low for mention
in TAFs at this point.  Winds S 6-10 kts overnight, becoming W-NW
10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts behind a cold front, after
15Z-19Z. Winds will continue to turn more northerly and diminish
Monday evening.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
319 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

ILZ040>042-047>057-061>063-012030-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-
319 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.
Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds
being the main threat. Hail and lightning will also be a threat.

Dangerous heat will build into central Illinois by the middle of
this week with daily afternoon highs in the 90s and heat index
values ranging from 100 to 110.

Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast for Wednesday and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ066>068-071>073-012030-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
319 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.
Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds
being the main threat. Hail and lightning will also be a threat.

Dangerous heat will build into the region by the middle of this week
with daily afternoon highs in the 90s and heat index values ranging
from 100 to 110.

Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast for late Wednesday
night and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ027>031-036>038-043>046-012030-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-De Witt-
Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-
319 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight. Severe weather is
not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and night. Some
of these storms in the afternoon could be strong, with gusty winds
and lightning.

Dangerous heat will build into central Illinois by the middle of
this week with daily afternoon highs in the 90s and heat index
values ranging from 100 to 110.

Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast for Wednesday and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
345 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

ILZ027-029-036-010930-
Peoria-Knox-Fulton-
345 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Fulton,
southern Knox and southwestern Peoria Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 345 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Galesburg, moving southeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Galesburg, Canton, Lewistown, Abingdon, Knoxville, Farmington,
Elmwood, Cuba, Hanna City, Trivoli, Yates City, St. David, Fairview,
London Mills, Maquon, Gilson, East Galesburg, Dunfermline, Smithfield
and Bryant.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 48 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4069 9044 4101 9043 4069 8977 4033 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 313DEG 43KT 4089 9044

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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