Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
637 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Severe weather is expected this afternoon across central IL.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in central IL and move
northeast this afternoon. Eventually, this activity is expected to
develop into a line of thunderstorms and move east across east-
central IL late this afternoon and into the evening hours. An
active week is expected next week with periods of precipitation
and near to slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Currently, we have a warm front lifting north of the area this
afternoon with an upper level low off to the west over IA and
broad, difluent flow over IL. The ILX 18Z sounding showed a strong
cap still in place, but that cap eroding and initiation is
starting to take place across the area ahead of the cold front.
The hi-res suite of models favor discrete cells developing into a
QLCS over the course of the day. As of 19Z, the effective shear
is around 50kts and MLCAPE is around 1000 J/kg in the
southwestern forecast area. Expect CAPE to still increase to the
1000-2000 J/kg realm and shear profiles to favor supercell
development initially. A Tornado Watch was recently issued for
nearly the entire forecast area through 8 PM. Based on the latest
guidance, expect the storms to have pushed off to the east into IN
by around 8 PM.

Winds have been breezy from the south today and expect them to
stay up tonight, with the cold front pushing through the area and
into IN this evening. Temps will be a bit cooler tomorrow with
increasing clouds and highs mostly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

On Sunday night, the upper low will be to the north moving through
northern MI, with weak ridging approaching from the west. Expect
dry conditions with highs in the upper 60s early on Monday before
another upper wave moves in from the west. Severe weather is not
expected at this time with this system. However, the probability
of precipitation with this system is nearly 100% across the
entire area Monday night and early Tuesday.

The pattern stays active with another system moving across the
Southern Plains and into the mid MS River Valley by the end of the
week. There is a fair chance for severe weather with this system,
however it may stay to the south of central IL. Temperatures will
be near to slightly below average during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

A line of thunderstorms with hail and strong winds will move east
across the area through the early evening hours. Will continue to
amend as needed when details of activity are more clear. Have seen
hail to 1.25" hail and wind gusts to 67 mph across parts of the
area with the strongest storms. Expect breezy southwest winds to
continue tonight and into tomorrow. After the storms move east,
clouds decrease, only to return with MVFR cigs late in the
night/early tomorrow morning. Cigs are expected to improve during
the afternoon with VFR conditions expected by mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...Knutsvig

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
310 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

ILZ028>031-037-038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-
011100-
Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-De Witt-
Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Logan-Macon-Marshall-
McLean-Menard-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-Richland-Sangamon-Shelby-
Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
310 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through sunset. Some of the
storms will be severe, capable of producing damaging wind gusts
in excess of 60 mph, hail, and possible tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday.
It is too early to determine the threat for severe weather at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely. West of I-57, activation is most
likely before 6 pm. Near and east of I-57, activation is most
likely between 4 pm and 8 pm.

ILZ027-036-040-041-047-049-050-011100-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Mason-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott-
310 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon,
with the threat diminishing by 6 pm. Some of the storms will be
strong to locally severe, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph, hail, and a tornado or two.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Additional thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday.
It is too early to determine the threat for severe weather at this
time.

Lingering flooding on the Illinois River from Havana to Beardstown
is expected to subside during the second half of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon through 6 pm.

Geelhart

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
559 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     HAIL             2 SW ATLANTA            40.24N 89.25W
04/30/2022  M1.25 INCH       LOGAN              IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

&&

ERWIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             ATLANTA                 40.26N 89.23W
04/30/2022  M1.00 INCH       LOGAN              IL   PUBLIC

&&

ERWIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
632 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             3 E CHATHAM             39.68N 89.64W
04/30/2022  M1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N STANFORD            40.45N 89.22W
04/30/2022  M67 MPH          MCLEAN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0553 PM     HAIL             2 SW ATLANTA            40.24N 89.25W
04/30/2022  M1.25 INCH       LOGAN              IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

0557 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW SICILY             39.58N 89.50W
04/30/2022                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW SHINGLES BLOWN OFF AND BRANCHES DOWN.
            ALSO PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT THAT TIME.

0613 PM     HAIL             ATLANTA                 40.26N 89.23W
04/30/2022  M1.00 INCH       LOGAN              IL   PUBLIC

&&

ERWIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
654 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TORNADO          3 SW COLFAX             40.54N 88.66W
04/30/2022                   MCLEAN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
656 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             1 WNW DOWNS             40.40N 88.89W
04/30/2022  E0.75 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

0644 PM     HAIL             1 NE TAYLORVILLE        39.56N 89.29W
04/30/2022  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

GEELHART