River Flood Warning 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

348 
WGUS83 KILX 170202
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
802 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-171815-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.220218T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220218T0300Z.220219T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
802 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CST Wednesday the stage was 9.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tomorrow evening and continue rising to a crest of 14.7
    feet early Saturday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 pm CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Thu   Fri   Sat          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  9.5   Wed 7 pm CST 12.8  14.3  14.7         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

Barnes

220 
WGUS83 KILX 171532
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
932 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-180745-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.220218T0730Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220218T0730Z.220219T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
932 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...From late tonight until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CST Thursday the stage was 11.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage just after
    midnight tonight to 14.1 feet Saturday morning. It will then
    fall to 13.0 feet by Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (12 pm CST)    
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  11.7  Thu 9 am CST 13.7  14.0  13.6         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

Erwin

881 
WGUS83 KILX 180225
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
825 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-181830-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.220218T0824Z-220224T0000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220218T0824Z.220219T1200Z.220223T1800Z.NO/
825 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...From late tonight to Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 12.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    just after midnight tonight to a crest of 14.2 feet Saturday
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Wednesday
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 pm CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Fri   Sat   Sun          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  12.4  Thu 8 pm CST 13.9  14.1  13.6         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

Barnes

526 
WGUS83 KILX 181223
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
623 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-190430-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220221T1000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220218T2024Z.220219T1800Z.220221T0400Z.NO/
623 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...Until early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 12.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this
    afternoon to 14.0 feet tomorrow evening. It will then fall
    below flood stage late Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 am CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  12.5  Fri 6 am CST 13.9  13.7  12.7         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

Erwin

492 
WGUS83 KILX 181546
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
946 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-190800-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220220T2000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220219T0000Z.220219T1200Z.220220T1400Z.NO/
946 AM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...Until early Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CST Friday the stage was 12.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this evening
    to 13.5 feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall
    below flood stage Sunday morning to 12.1 feet and remain
    below flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (12 pm CST)    
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  12.5  Fri 9 am CST 13.5  12.8  12.1         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

Erwin

510 
WGUS83 KILX 190229
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
829 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-191830-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220221T0600Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220220T0600Z.220220T0600Z.220221T0000Z.NO/
829 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...Until early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CST Friday the stage was 12.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Sunday morning to a crest of 13.0 feet early Sunday
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 pm CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sat   Sun   Mon          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  12.5  Fri 8 pm CST 12.9  13.0  12.8         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

MJA

643 
WGUS83 KILX 191503
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-200715-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220221T1200Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220221T0000Z.220221T0000Z.220221T0600Z.NO/
903 AM CST Sat Feb 19 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...Until Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CST Saturday the stage was 12.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow evening to a crest of 13.0 feet tomorrow evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (12 pm CST)    
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  12.7  Sat 8 am CST 12.9  12.9  12.7         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

37

758 
WGUS83 KILX 200138
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
738 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-201745-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220221T1200Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220221T0000Z.220221T0000Z.220221T0600Z.NO/
738 PM CST Sat Feb 19 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...Until Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CST Saturday the stage was 12.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow evening to a crest of 13.0 feet tomorrow evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 pm CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Sun   Mon   Tue          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  12.8  Sat 7 pm CST 13.0  12.9  12.6         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

MJA

051 
WGUS83 KILX 201514
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
914 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-210715-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220222T0000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220220T1800Z.220221T0000Z.220221T1800Z.NO/
914 AM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CST Sunday the stage was 12.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this
    afternoon to 13.1 feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall
    below flood stage early tomorrow afternoon to 12.7 feet.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (12 pm CST)    
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  12.9  Sun 9 am CST 13.0  12.7  12.9         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

Erwin

139 
WGUS83 KILX 210219
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
819 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-211830-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220222T0000Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220220T1945Z.220221T0200Z.220221T1800Z.NO/
819 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CST Sunday the stage was 13.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 PM CST Sunday was 13.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    early tomorrow afternoon and continue falling to 12.0 feet
    Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 pm CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Mon   Tue   Wed          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  13.1  Sun 8 pm CST 12.9  12.8  12.9         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

MJA

419 
WGUS83 KILX 211456
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
856 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for 
flooding. Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.


ILC147-220700-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220224T1800Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220220T1945Z.220221T0330Z.220224T1200Z.NO/
856 AM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sangamon River at Monticello.

* WHEN...Until early Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 13.0 feet, Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM CST Monday the stage was 13.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:00 AM CST Monday was 13.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    Monday evening to 12.8 feet. It will then rise above flood
    stage early Wednesday morning to a crest of 13.0 feet. It
    will then fall below flood stage Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 am CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  13.0  Mon 8 am CST 12.8  13.0  13.0         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

Erwin

834 
WGUS83 KILX 220129
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
729 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Illinois...

  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County.

.The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

ILC147-220230-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220222T0129Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.220220T1945Z.220221T0330Z.220224T1200Z.NO/
729 PM CST Mon Feb 21 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Sangamon River at Monticello.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM CST Monday the stage was 12.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Wednesday morning to a crest of 13.0 feet early
    Wednesday morning. It will then fall below flood stage
    Thursday morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

              Fld   Observed           Forecasts (6 pm CST)     
Location      Stg   Stg   Day/Time     Tue   Wed   Thu          

Sangamon River
Monticello    13.0  12.6  Mon 7 pm CST 12.9  13.0  12.9         


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861


$$

MJA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
427 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

South winds will gust as high as 45 mph for parts of central and
eastern IL today. This will bring unseasonably warm air to the
region, with highs reaching the middle to upper 50s. Light rain
will develop from the northwest ahead of an approaching cold
front. The rain will become heavy for central to eastern IL
tonight and Thursday, leading to flooding concerns. Strong to
severe storms are possible near and south of I-70 on Thursday.
Farther northwest, colder air filtering in behind the front will
change rain to a wintery mix late tonight west of I-55, then
transitioning to snow from the northwest on Thursday. Heavy snow
is possible northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line, where a
Winter Storm Warning is in effect Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

Latest surface analysis indicated a low pressure complex of
998-1000 mb stretched along a cold front, extending from the
western tip of Lake Superior southwest into central KS. There was
a tight MSLP gradient across the Midwest between the front and
1040 mb high off the NJ coast. South winds were gusting up to 25
mph tonight, causing temperatures to rise to unseasonably warm
levels in the mid/upper 40s.

Forecast soundings show a quick increase in mixing heights this
morning before cloud cover thickens, tapping into the base of a
40-60 kt low level jet, and transporting higher gusts near 40 kt
down to the surface, primarily over the eastern half of the CWA.
Have expanded the Wind Advisory as far west as a Bloomington to
Taylorville line. Would expect the higher end gusts to be short
lived and diminishing this afternoon with lowering ceilings,
though gradient south winds remain brisk at 15-25 mph. The warm
advection will result in one more unseasonably warm day with highs
at 55-60F.

Isentropic ascent increases ahead of the front this morning and
afternoon but the column is initially quite dry. 00z HREF guidance
suggests best chances of seeing light rain this afternoon will be
west of I-55, and have confined likely pops here and only chance
pops farther southeast. Precipitable waters increase over 1.0"
tonight east of I-55, and as high as 1.2" over east central and SE
IL on Thursday. This combined with persistent lift ahead of the
slow moving cold front will bring steady moderate to occasionally
heavy rain to the eastern half to third of the CWA. HREF QPF
guidance shows 6-hr values approaching 1 inch after midnight
through Thursday afternoon. Total QPF of 2-3" is forecast
southeast of a Taylorville to Champaign line, which aligns well
with the going Flood Watch, in effect from this evening through
Thursday afternoon. This amount of rain falling on partially
frozen and saturated soils will lead to areal and river flood
concerns. The surface low is forecast to track near the I-70
corridor Thursday afternoon, placing the SE CWA in the warm
sector. Weak instability but strong wind shear will bring a
marginal severe threat to the southeast third of the area, with
hail and damaging wind gusts possible. Primary timing looks to be
8 am to 2 pm. Updated Day 2 SPC outlook pushes the slight risk up
into our far southern row of counties.

Back to tonight, the freezing line behind the cold front reaches
the far NW CWA around midnight, pushing SE of the IL River by 12z.
With a pronounced warm nose aloft, a few hours of freezing rain
looks likely, followed by a period of sleet as the warm nose
shrinks. This area of mixed precip shifts east into east central
IL this afternoon, based on latest HREF guidance. Freezing rain
accumulations up to a tenth of an inch are likely with some sleet
accums on top of that.

00z guidance has trended south in the storm track, placing the
northern CWA in line for significant winter storm impacts. Forecast
soundings point to a changeover to snow from 12-15z over the
northwest CWA, pressing southeast near the I-55 corridor by
midday. The late morning through afternoon period sees the
strongest area of lift shift overhead, ahead of the potent mid
level shortwave and coupled upper level jet. This is also when
strengthening low pressure passes from southern MO into southern
IND. Latest guidance has trended more bullish on snowfall rates
during this period for the northwest third to half of the CWA,
with high likelihood of rates in excess of 1"/hour northwest of a
Rushville to Bloomington line, and smaller but notable
probabilities of >2"/hr rates centered near the IL River around
midday. This is backed up by forecast soundings showing a deep
isothermal layer, and strong lift in a deep dendritic growth zone
(12-15k feet). Blended forecast shows a swath of 5-7"
accumulations in this area, but could certainly see this going
higher if the better rates are sustained in the deformation zone.
North winds gusting 25-35 mph in the tightening gradient north of
the low will create blowing/drifting issues as SLRs rise above 10
or 12:1 during the peak of the storm. Significant travel issues
will likely arise with near whiteout conditions at times from late
morning through much of the afternoon, before better lift shifts
northeast during the evening, diminishing the higher snow rates.
With this in mind have hoisted a Winter Storm Warning northwest of
a Bloomington to Rushville line, in effect from midnight to 6 pm
Thursday. Farther southeast, the Winter Storm Watch will remain in
place, allowing for refinement of accumulations and impacts based
on 12z guidance.

Skies look to clear from the northwest after midnight, and winds
lighten as a surface ridge quickly moves in from the west. Blended
forecast lows in the single digits may be on the high side, given
fresh snow cover and good radiational cooling. Raw MOS guidance
shows mins down to -10 which seems possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

Quiet conditions through next weekend, with below normal temps
Fri/Sat trending back above normal on Sunday as mid level flow
backs zonal. The next system of interest arrives Monday night and
Tuesday, currently shown as rain in the blended guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 427 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

LLWS continues this morning with a 50-60 kt low level jet.
Southerly surface winds and gusts pick up this morning as mixing
increases, with gusts reaching near 40 kt into early afternoon.
Gustiness will lower later this afternoon and evening when the
gradient begins to relax ahead of a cold front, with winds veering
north behind the front after 06-11z from west to east. Broken mid
and highs clouds lower to MVFR this afternoon and scattered
showers increase from the west. Conditions deteriorate to IFR this
evening with steady rains overspreading the entire area. A change
to FZRA could occur at PIA before the end of this TAF cycle, but
holding off until after 12z at terminals farther southeast.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for
ILZ044>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for ILZ038-043>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday
for ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041.

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
afternoon for ILZ042>055-061.

&&

SYNOPSIS...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
536 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

ILZ044>046-053>055-061-171145-
Champaign-Douglas-Macon-Moultrie-Piatt-Shelby-Vermilion-
536 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong southerly winds are expected today, gusting as high as 40
to 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect due to these high winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Heavy rain is expected tonight and Thursday with 2 to 2.5 inches
expected, and may produce some areas of flooding on low- lying and
flood- prone locations and rivers. Ice jams may form on areas
prone to ice jams. Rain may transition to snow or a wintry mix
during Thursday afternoon, with freezing rain and sleet possible.
Snowfall amounts up to 1 inch and ice accumulations less than a
tenth inch are possible.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible tonight and Thursday.
A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday near and
south of the I-70 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-171145-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-
Lawrence-Richland-
536 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong southerly winds are expected today, gusting as high as 40
to 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect due to these high winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Heavy rain is expected Wednesday night and Thursday with 2 to 3
inches expected, and may produce some areas of flooding on low-
lying and flood-prone locations and rivers. Ice jams may form on
areas prone to ice jams. Rain may transition to snow or a wintry
mix late Thursday afternoon, with freezing rain and sleet possible
mainly from I-70 north.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible tonight and Thursday.
A few strong to severe storms are possible Thursday near and
south of the I-70 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ043-171145-
De Witt-
536 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong southerly winds are expected today, gusting as high as 40
to 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect due to these high winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Rain will transition to snow Thursday morning, along with a
period of freezing rain and sleet, with heavy snow possible at
times through Thursday. Heavy rain of 1.5 to 2.5 inches could
bring some flooding issues mainly to counties along and south of
I-72/Danville and along and east of I-55. Between 1 and 3 inches
of snow is possible along with around one tenth inch of ice. Gusty
north winds could cause blowing and drifting snow by Thursday
afternoon and evening. Wind chills will lower to zero to 10 below
overnight Thursday night into mid Friday morning.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible during Wednesday night. Severe
storms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-171145-
Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Peoria-Schuyler-Stark-Tazewell-
Woodford-
536 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong southerly winds are expected today, gusting as high as 40
mph. Rain will change to a mix of freezing rain and sleet late
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Freezing rain and sleet will change to snow Thursday morning,
with heavy snow possible at times through Thursday afternoon. 5
to 7 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts, is possible
along with ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. North
winds could gust to 35 mph on Thursday causing some blowing and
drifting snow. Wind chills will lower to zero to 10 below zero
overnight Thursday night into mid Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ042-047>051-171145-
Cass-Logan-Menard-Morgan-Sangamon-Scott-
536 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong southerly winds are expected today, gusting as high as 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Rain will transition to snow Thursday morning, along with a
period of freezing rain and sleet, with heavy snow possible at
times through Thursday. Heavy rain of 1.5 to 2.5 inches could
bring some flooding issues mainly to counties along and south of
I-72/Danville and along and east of I-55. Between 2 and 4 inches
of snow is possible along with around one tenth inch of ice. Gusty
north winds could cause blowing and drifting snow by Thursday
afternoon and evening. Wind chills will lower to zero to 10 below
overnight Thursday night into mid Friday morning.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible during Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-171145-
McLean-
536 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong southerly winds are expected today, gusting as high as 40
to 45 mph. A wind advisory is in effect due to these high winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Rain will transition to snow Thursday morning, along with a
period of freezing rain and sleet, with heavy snow possible at
times through Thursday. Heavy rain of 1.5 to 2.5 inches could
bring some flooding issues mainly to counties along and south of
I-72/Danville and along and east of I-55. Between 1 and 3 inches
of snow is possible along with around one tenth inch of ice. Gusty
north winds could cause blowing and drifting snow by Thursday
afternoon and evening. Wind chills will lower to zero to 10 below
overnight Thursday night into mid Friday morning.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible during Wednesday night after 8
pm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ052-171145-
Christian-
536 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong southerly winds are expected today, gusting as high as 40
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Heavy rain is expected Wednesday night and Thursday with 2 to 2.5
inches expected, and may produce some areas of flooding on low-
lying and flood- prone locations and rivers. Ice jams may form on
areas prone to ice jams. Rain may transition to snow or a wintry
mix during Thursday afternoon, with freezing rain and sleet
possible. Snowfall amounts up to 1 to 2 inches and ice
accumulations less than a tenth inch are possible.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible overnight Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. A few strong storms are
possible, especially near the I-70 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

25