Wind Advisory 8, NWS Wichita, KS

167 
WWUS73 KICT 301938
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
238 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092-310000-
/O.CON.KICT.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-220331T0000Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Reno-
Harvey-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-Sumner-
Including the cities of Russell, Lincoln, Sylvan Grove, 
Great Bend, Ellsworth, Wilson, Salina, Lyons, Sterling, 
McPherson, Hutchinson, Newton, Kingman, Derby, Haysville, 
Bel Aire, Park City, Valley Center, Wichita, Anthony, Harper, 
Attica, and Wellington
238 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and South Central Kansas.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured light weight 
  objects.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

053 
WWUS73 KICT 302356
NPWICT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wichita KS
656 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KSZ032-033-047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092-310100-
/O.EXP.KICT.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-220331T0000Z/
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Reno-
Harvey-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-Sumner-
Including the cities of Russell, Lincoln, Sylvan Grove, 
Great Bend, Ellsworth, Wilson, Salina, Lyons, Sterling, 
McPherson, Hutchinson, Newton, Kingman, Derby, Haysville, 
Bel Aire, Park City, Valley Center, Wichita, Anthony, Harper, 
Attica, and Wellington
656 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Strong north winds continue to subside below advisory criteria 
this evening.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Bottom Line Up Front:

Extreme fire danger in the western counties, high wind warning with
gusts up to 70 mph possible creating very dangerous fire
conditions.

Thunderstorms, some severe will develop tonight along and east of
the turnpike.  Best chance for severe weather will be from the Flint
Hills east.

Discussion:

A powerful spring storm system is churning through the CWA this
afternoon with strong WAA and moisture transport pouring into the
central and eastern portions of the CWA.  A distinct dry line is
already moving into the western portions of the CWA with Tds in the
30s to upper 20s in Russell and Barton Counties.  Further east, Tds
are in the mid to upper 50 and may push 60 in far southeast Kansas
this afternoon.  This creates for two main areas of concern for the
short term.  First fire weather will be a significant concern with
the drier air and high surface winds this afternoon.  This will
likely create dangerous fire conditions with blowing dust as well
(see the fire weather section for more details).  Further east,
thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon and into
the evening hours.  There is a strong CAP in place at the moment
which the WAA and moisture transport will eventually erode away.
That said, it will take some time and thunderstorms may not develop
until closer to sunset.  Observed and forecast soundings depict
hodographs with decent shear in the first 10Kft (0-3Km) that would
allow for some decent thunderstorm development, then the next 10Kft
to 20Kft (3-6Km) the shear is markedly destructive to thunderstorm
development. The saving grace appears to be the the jet stream winds
which are very strong.  This profile lends to significant stretching
in the convective column allowing for the development thunderstorms
with some of them severe.  Finally the orientation of the jet stream
is parallel to the incoming cold front strongly indicates the
primary thunderstorm mode will be linear with some discrete
supercells possible to start.  Once anvil seeding takes place, the
atmosphere will transition to a QLCS mode. This configuration
indicates the primary threat will be wind with hail up to quarters
possible but much more likely in the early evening hours and an
outside chance for a tornado.

For early Wednesday morning, the short term model ensembles become a
little mixed.  Some are indicating a rather quick progression of
rain with most areas east of the turnpike but a few others indicated
a decent chance for some rain over much of south central and
southeast Kansas during the night.  The RAP/NAM families are leaning
in this direction and do not shut the significant rain off until the
front comes through later in the morning closer to 9Z time frame in
Central Kansas and close to 12Z in Southeast Kansas toward dawn.
Considering the uncertainty in the models runs, did not increase the
QPF much but did delay the end time of the significant rain a few
hours to compensate.  At this time, CAA will return to the CWA
bringing temperatures crashing down toward and a little below normal
for this time of year.  By mid to late morning, all areas of the CWA
will see rapidly dropping temperatures.  The upper level low will
also becoming through the region and will keep the rain chances in
the forecast through Wednesday.  The main question pertains to
amounts and will extend of the deformation zone's precipitation
shield. Current indications are this rain will generally be light
and scattered and will gradually come to and end by the mid to late
afternoon for all areas.  Winds will also remain rather brisk and
may reach advisory criteria for a brief period of time.

Thursday, the low pressure system will have exited the region and
high pressure will remain.  CAA will remain in place though and keep
temperatures a little below normal for this time of year.  This high
pressure system will keep the rain chances out of the forecast to
end the short term.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

The extended range looks to remain rather active with most of the
ensemble families indicating a number of chances for rain and/or
thunderstorms.  The first opportunity will be Friday night with some
showers or thunderstorms.  The severe weather threat for this round
looks minimal as all three ensemble families do not show enough
moisture return flow nor the needed upper level support for it. That
said, temperatures are likely to remain near or a little below
normal for Friday and Saturday.  Sunday, WAA will return and bring
temperatures up some.  By Sunday night, the next weather system will
push through with the next chance for rain.  The long range
ensembles diverge at this point with the GFS the most bullish on
rain but the ECMWF and the Canadian on the lighter side.  Some
thunder is possible but the orientation of system is not very
favorable at this point.  This system will again bring temperatures
back down to normal for remainder of the extended range.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Showers and storms should exit far southeast Kansas by 06-08z,
with possible redeveloping showers and thunderstorms as the night
progresses. Meanwhile, a cold front will blast southeast across
the region overnight and into Wednesday morning, with strong/gusty
northwest winds and MVFR ceilings in its wake. May also see
spotty redeveloping showers late tonight through Wednesday
morning areawide, as the upper low rotates across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

The strong low pressure system pushing its way through the region
with an attendant low level jet across Southwest and Central Kansas
is creating very dangerous fire weather conditions.  Grassland fire
danger indices across much of Central Kansas are in the extreme to
catastrophic category this afternoon.  The dry line, currently
stretched across the Smokey Hills south to the Red Hills is the
demarcation line for these fire weather conditions.  Areas west of
the dry line will see much drier conditions along with strong south
to southwest winds in the 40-50 mph sustained with gusts up to 70
mph.  These conditions will make fire behavior dangerous and
difficult to control once a fire takes hold. Additionally, satellite
is already showing blowing dust kicking up in Southwest Kansas
moving to the northeast toward Central Kansas.  The blowing dust has
the potential of impacting visibility to the point of hampering fire
fighting responses this afternoon and evening.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  52  32  57 /  80  40   0   0
Hutchinson      39  50  30  56 /  60  40   0   0
Newton          40  50  31  54 /  80  40   0   0
ElDorado        42  51  31  54 /  80  40   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  54  32  56 /  70  40   0   0
Russell         36  48  27  57 /  30  40   0   0
Great Bend      37  50  28  57 /  30  40   0   0
Salina          40  49  30  56 /  30  40  10   0
McPherson       39  49  29  55 /  50  40   0   0
Coffeyville     51  60  34  55 /  80  60   0   0
Chanute         48  58  34  53 /  80  60   0   0
Iola            47  58  34  52 /  80  60   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  59  33  54 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Metzger
LONG TERM...Metzger
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...Metzger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1215 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-310515-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1215 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms will affect southeast Kansas overnight with small hail
and gusty winds possible. Severe weather risk will remain low with
this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong northwest winds up to 40 mph are expected across the region
Wednesday, strongest generally west of the Flint Hills. This may
support some lower-end fire danger, especially for areas that do
not see much precipitation tonight through Wednesday.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will impact southeast Kansas
early Wednesday, but severe weather is not expected.

A mix of rain and snow may impact portions of central and north-
central Kansas early Wednesday, with a dusting of accumulation
possible on grassy surfaces.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1056 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE ARKANSAS CITY     37.06N 97.04W
03/29/2022  M58 MPH          COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1157 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

KSZ094>096-098>100-300545-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Labette KS-Chautauqua KS-Neosho KS-Elk KS-
1157 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Elk, Wilson,
northwestern Labette, western Neosho, Montgomery and eastern
Chautauqua Counties through 1245 AM CDT...

At 1156 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Fall River to 5 miles
north of Elk City to near Havana. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Chanute, Neodesha, Fredonia, Cherryvale, Caney, Thayer,
Altoona, Mound Valley, Longton, Elk City, Buffalo, Tyro, Fall River,
Galesburg, Liberty, Havana, Bolton, Sycamore and Niotaze.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 9606 3753 9624 3761 9610 3760 9596
      3768 9596 3774 9586 3773 9533 3765 9523
      3719 9536 3700 9594 3700 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 242DEG 38KT 3753 9611 3737 9593 3705 9601

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CUELLAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1221 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KSZ072-300545-
Allen KS-
1221 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Allen County through
1245 AM CDT...

At 1220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Kincaid to 7 miles southeast of Humboldt.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Iola, Humboldt, La Harpe, Gas, Moran, Savonburg, Elsmore, Mildred,
Bassett, Iola Airport and Petrolia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 9509 3773 9509 3773 9553 3804 9542
      3804 9508 3782 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 274DEG 27KT 3803 9518 3774 9533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CUELLAR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1256 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KSZ096-300630-
Neosho KS-
1256 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Neosho
County through 130 AM CDT...

At 1255 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
St. Paul, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Erie, St. Paul, Stark and South Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9528 3739 9530 3767 9530 3773 9519
      3773 9509 3742 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 235DEG 39KT 3756 9516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
100 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
03/29/2022                   COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELATED REPORT. TWO TREES UPROOTED IN TOWN
            AND BLOCKING THE ROAD. A POWER POLE WAS ALSO
            BLOWN OVER AND SOME POWER LINES WERE DOWNED.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S WALTON              38.07N 97.26W
03/29/2022  E60 MPH          HARVEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST.

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S COTTONWOOD FALLS    38.32N 96.54W
03/29/2022                   CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH AND LARGER TREE LIMBS DOWNED BY
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

0802 PM     HAIL             8 SSE BURNS             37.97N 96.84W
03/29/2022  E0.88 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0803 PM     HAIL             3 E SEDGWICK            37.91N 97.37W
03/29/2022  E0.88 INCH       HARVEY             KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

0822 PM     HAIL             4 NW HARPER             37.33N 98.08W
03/29/2022  E0.88 INCH       HARPER             KS   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF SMALLER SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

0839 PM     HAIL             2 W WICHITA EISENHOWER  37.66N 97.47W
03/29/2022  E0.50 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

0850 PM     HAIL             ANTHONY                 37.15N 98.03W
03/29/2022  M0.50 INCH       HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0852 PM     TSTM WND GST     EAST WICHITA            37.69N 97.26W
03/29/2022  E60 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE FREEPORT          37.18N 97.85W
03/29/2022  E60 MPH          HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM     HAIL             ARGONIA                 37.26N 97.77W
03/29/2022  E1.00 INCH       SUMNER             KS   PUBLIC

0945 PM     HAIL             WELLINGTON              37.27N 97.40W
03/29/2022  M0.88 INCH       SUMNER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1048 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
03/29/2022                   COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELATED REPORT. TWO TREES UPROOTED IN TOWN
            AND BLOCKING THE ROAD. A POWER POLE WAS ALSO
            BLOWN OVER AND SOME POWER LINES WERE DOWNED.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

1053 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE ARKANSAS CITY     37.06N 97.04W
03/29/2022  M58 MPH          COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&