Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
608 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Bottom Line Up Front:

Extreme fire danger in the western counties, high wind warning with
gusts up to 70 mph possible creating very dangerous fire
conditions.

Thunderstorms, some severe will develop tonight along and east of
the turnpike.  Best chance for severe weather will be from the Flint
Hills east.

Discussion:

A powerful spring storm system is churning through the CWA this
afternoon with strong WAA and moisture transport pouring into the
central and eastern portions of the CWA.  A distinct dry line is
already moving into the western portions of the CWA with Tds in the
30s to upper 20s in Russell and Barton Counties.  Further east, Tds
are in the mid to upper 50 and may push 60 in far southeast Kansas
this afternoon.  This creates for two main areas of concern for the
short term.  First fire weather will be a significant concern with
the drier air and high surface winds this afternoon.  This will
likely create dangerous fire conditions with blowing dust as well
(see the fire weather section for more details).  Further east,
thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon and into
the evening hours.  There is a strong CAP in place at the moment
which the WAA and moisture transport will eventually erode away.
That said, it will take some time and thunderstorms may not develop
until closer to sunset.  Observed and forecast soundings depict
hodographs with decent shear in the first 10Kft (0-3Km) that would
allow for some decent thunderstorm development, then the next 10Kft
to 20Kft (3-6Km) the shear is markedly destructive to thunderstorm
development. The saving grace appears to be the the jet stream winds
which are very strong.  This profile lends to significant stretching
in the convective column allowing for the development thunderstorms
with some of them severe.  Finally the orientation of the jet stream
is parallel to the incoming cold front strongly indicates the
primary thunderstorm mode will be linear with some discrete
supercells possible to start.  Once anvil seeding takes place, the
atmosphere will transition to a QLCS mode. This configuration
indicates the primary threat will be wind with hail up to quarters
possible but much more likely in the early evening hours and an
outside chance for a tornado.

For early Wednesday morning, the short term model ensembles become a
little mixed.  Some are indicating a rather quick progression of
rain with most areas east of the turnpike but a few others indicated
a decent chance for some rain over much of south central and
southeast Kansas during the night.  The RAP/NAM families are leaning
in this direction and do not shut the significant rain off until the
front comes through later in the morning closer to 9Z time frame in
Central Kansas and close to 12Z in Southeast Kansas toward dawn.
Considering the uncertainty in the models runs, did not increase the
QPF much but did delay the end time of the significant rain a few
hours to compensate.  At this time, CAA will return to the CWA
bringing temperatures crashing down toward and a little below normal
for this time of year.  By mid to late morning, all areas of the CWA
will see rapidly dropping temperatures.  The upper level low will
also becoming through the region and will keep the rain chances in
the forecast through Wednesday.  The main question pertains to
amounts and will extend of the deformation zone's precipitation
shield. Current indications are this rain will generally be light
and scattered and will gradually come to and end by the mid to late
afternoon for all areas.  Winds will also remain rather brisk and
may reach advisory criteria for a brief period of time.

Thursday, the low pressure system will have exited the region and
high pressure will remain.  CAA will remain in place though and keep
temperatures a little below normal for this time of year.  This high
pressure system will keep the rain chances out of the forecast to
end the short term.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

The extended range looks to remain rather active with most of the
ensemble families indicating a number of chances for rain and/or
thunderstorms.  The first opportunity will be Friday night with some
showers or thunderstorms.  The severe weather threat for this round
looks minimal as all three ensemble families do not show enough
moisture return flow nor the needed upper level support for it. That
said, temperatures are likely to remain near or a little below
normal for Friday and Saturday.  Sunday, WAA will return and bring
temperatures up some.  By Sunday night, the next weather system will
push through with the next chance for rain.  The long range
ensembles diverge at this point with the GFS the most bullish on
rain but the ECMWF and the Canadian on the lighter side.  Some
thunder is possible but the orientation of system is not very
favorable at this point.  This system will again bring temperatures
back down to normal for remainder of the extended range.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Scattered to linear convection is expected along a dry-line/cold
front merger tonight as it moves from central across eastern
Kansas. While mainly VFR, periods of MVFR cigs/IFR vsbys expected
in some convection. Strong and gusty south to southwest winds will
shift to northwest behind the cold front and remain gusty. MVFR
cigs are expected to develop behind the cold front with scattered
showers through early Wednesday morning.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

The strong low pressure system pushing its way through the region
with an attendant low level jet across Southwest and Central Kansas
is creating very dangerous fire weather conditions.  Grassland fire
danger indices across much of Central Kansas are in the extreme to
catastrophic category this afternoon.  The dry line, currently
stretched across the Smokey Hills south to the Red Hills is the
demarcation line for these fire weather conditions.  Areas west of
the dry line will see much drier conditions along with strong south
to southwest winds in the 40-50 mph sustained with gusts up to 70
mph.  These conditions will make fire behavior dangerous and
difficult to control once a fire takes hold. Additionally, satellite
is already showing blowing dust kicking up in Southwest Kansas
moving to the northeast toward Central Kansas.  The blowing dust has
the potential of impacting visibility to the point of hampering fire
fighting responses this afternoon and evening.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  52  32  57 /  60  40   0   0
Hutchinson      39  50  30  56 /  40  40   0   0
Newton          42  50  31  54 /  60  40   0   0
ElDorado        44  51  31  54 /  80  40   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  54  32  56 /  80  50   0   0
Russell         34  48  27  57 /  40  50   0   0
Great Bend      34  50  28  57 /  40  50   0   0
Salina          40  49  30  56 /  40  50  10   0
McPherson       40  49  29  55 /  40  50   0   0
Coffeyville     51  60  34  55 /  90  70   0   0
Chanute         50  58  34  53 /  90  70   0   0
Iola            49  58  34  52 /  90  70   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  59  33  54 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

&&

SHORT TERM...Metzger
LONG TERM...Metzger
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...Metzger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
329 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
329 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Extreme to catastrophic grassland fire danger will impact the
region this afternoon, with the most critical fire danger west of a
line from Salina to Hutchinson to Anthony. Please refer to the Red
Flag Warning for details.

Strong southerly winds of 40 to 55 mph will impact the region
today, strongest generally west of a line extending from Salina to
Hutchinson to Anthony where peak gusts may approach 70 mph. South
and east of this line, winds will be light but still strong
averaging in the 25 to 35 mph range with wind gusts up to 50 mph.
Please refer to the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning for
details.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening and
overnight, mainly along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. The
primary threat will be damaging wind gusts to 65 mph although a
brief tornado and quarter sized hail cannot be ruled out. Locally
heavy rain may result in ponding of water in low-lying areas,
especially across portions of southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong northwest winds up to 40 mph are expected across the region
Wednesday, strongest generally west of the Flint Hills. This may
support some lower-end fire danger, especially for areas that do
not see much precipitation tonight through Wednesday.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will impact southeast Kansas
early Wednesday, but severe weather is not expected.

A mix of rain and snow may impact portions of central and north-
central Kansas early Wednesday, with a dusting of accumulation
possible on grassy surfaces.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

KSZ067-082-083-300030-
Reno KS-Sedgwick KS-Kingman KS-
710 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Reno,
northwestern Sedgwick and northeastern Kingman Counties through 730
PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pretty Prairie, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haven, Pretty Prairie, Yoder, Waterloo, Cheney Lake, Mt Vernon and
Cheney State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3757 9799 3770 9815 3810 9771 3773 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 226DEG 42KT 3770 9800

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

METZGER

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
746 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

KSZ069-300115-
Butler KS-
746 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Butler
County through 815 PM CDT...

At 746 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Towanda, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Augusta, Towanda, Benton, Cassoday, El Dorado Airport, El
Dorado Lake and El Dorado State Park.

This includes Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 61 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 9713 3808 9681 3809 9661 3808 9652
      3806 9652 3788 9653 3768 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 226DEG 48KT 3781 9698

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
747 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S COTTONWOOD FALLS    38.32N 96.54W
03/29/2022                   CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH AND LARGER TREE LIMBS DOWNED BY
            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.

&&

MWM