Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Showers from this morning continue to linger across portions of
central KS this afternoon along the axis of highest precipitable
water (1.9" axis). However, the main focus of this afternoon will
fall across southern KS in the  of a stalled cold front currently
along the KS/OK border and outflow boundary in northeast Oklahoma
which arches back into south central KS. The cloud shield arching
from central KS back toward SW KS is likely developing another
differential heating induced baroclinic zone from Kingman County
west toward DDC.

ML CAPE in the 3500-4000 j/kg range and marginal shear of 20 to
30kts will support mainly multicell clusters this afternoon into
early evening. Marginally severe hail will be possible, but
damaging winds are the more dominant threat with DCAPE values in
excess of 1000J/kg. Wouldn't be surprised to see a landspout
today given very slow moving sfc boundaries and exceptional 0-3km
CAPE (180j/kg) and 0-3km lapse rates >8 C/km. Localized flooding
will also be a concerned for storms that develop this afternoon
and evening with very high PW values resulting in efficient
rainfall, and very slow storm motions.

Increasing moisture transport developing this evening and tonight
will bring additional chances for storms, some of which could be
strong. At this time thinking these elevated storms will be
focused mainly across central KS and extending southeastward along
the NE fringe of the CWA, as best moisture transport and
instability drift northeastward.

Strong to severe storms will be possible again tomorrow as a sfc low
develops over western KS in concert with an embedded shortwave
progged to move across the area. Central KS will have the best
chance of seeing severe storms where nearly 40-50kts of shear will
be present with appreciable instability. That said, some of the
more hi- res solutions resolve a tightening dryline extending
into south central KS, with <20 J/kg CIN in the afternoon, though
potentially with less shear to work with. Woudln't be surprised
to see an isolated storm or two further south. While large hail
and damaging winds would be the main threat tomorrow, backed sfc
winds will keep the tornado threat around. Will have to keep an
eye on this period.

Temperature wise, the hot temps will continue for a couple more
days with highs in the 90s tomorrow and upper 90s and low 100s
Friday before some relief begins to arrive this weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

A welcomed cold front will push through the area Saturday into
Sunday bringing relief to the heat. A few showers and storms will
be possible Saturday and Sunday as the front rolls through. Highs
Sunday will feel much "cooler" with temps in the upper 70s to low
80s with lows getting into the low 60s and upper 50s for some.
However, the cooler temps don't look to stick around long with
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s returning by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Main aviation concern will be storm chances this afternoon and
early evening.

Showers and a couple storms have remained over central KS the last
several hours as water vapor imagery shows a mid level moisture
plume remaining in place along with persistent mid level moisture
transport. However, most of this activity has been showers and not
storms. Additional storms are expected across southern KS
generally after 4 pm along a weakening cold front. The sites most
likely to be impacted will be KICT and KHUT. This activity should
start to diminish after around 03z. Main threat with these storms
will be downburst winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  93  77 100 /  30  20   0   0
Hutchinson      69  93  76 101 /  20  20   0   0
Newton          69  91  77  98 /  20  20  10   0
ElDorado        69  88  75  96 /  20  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   70  93  76  99 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         68  94  74 103 /  30  30  30   0
Great Bend      69  95  75 103 /  20  20  10   0
Salina          70  93  77 103 /  40  40  20   0
McPherson       70  91  76 101 /  30  30  10   0
Coffeyville     72  90  75  96 /  20  20  10   0
Chanute         71  88  74  95 /  20  20  10   0
Iola            70  87  74  94 /  20  20  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    72  89  75  96 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
335 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-232045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
335 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight

Strong to marginally severe storms expected across south central
Kansas. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are the main concern, with dime to
quarter sized hail possible as well. Localized flooding will be
possible due to slow moving storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm chances will continue across the region for Thursday
afternoon and evening. The highest threat will be across central
Kansas. Strong to severe storms will be possible with quarter to
half dollar size hail, wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. A tornado cannot
be ruled out.

There are additional chances for storms Friday night in north
central Kansas and across the area Saturday through early Sunday.
A few strong storms with wind gusts to 50 mph, small hail and
locally heavy rainfall are possible through this period.

On Friday,afternoon heat indices may climb to 102 to 105. Heat
indices on Saturday are anticipated to be around 100 in portions of
south central and southeast Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

KSZ082-222100-
Kingman KS-
328 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Kingman
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Norwich, or 12 miles southeast of Kingman, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Norwich and Murdock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 9805 3758 9807 3760 9781 3741 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 268DEG 8KT 3750 9797

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
410 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

KSZ082-083-222145-
Sedgwick KS-Kingman KS-
410 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Sedgwick and Kingman
Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 408 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a handful of strong
thunderstorms over Kingman and Sedgwick counties, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail, torrential
         rainfall, frequent lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, Andover, Haysville, Park City, Valley Center, Bel
Aire, Mulvane, Goddard, Rose Hill, Maize, Kingman, Clearwater,
Cheney, Sedgwick, Colwich, Garden Plain, Mount Hope, Downtown Wichita
and Kechi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9846 3773 9846 3773 9770 3791 9770
      3791 9715 3748 9715 3747 9781 3739 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 261DEG 13KT 3769 9765

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
412 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE WELLINGTON        37.28N 97.39W
06/22/2022  E60 MPH          SUMNER             KS   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS REPORTED
            JUST EAST OF WELLINGTON.

&&

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